Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, December 09, 2008
How to Invest in this Global Credit Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Arnold Bock writes: Virtually all investors large or small, institutional or private, sophisticated or clueless have managed to weather the current tsunami in the financial markets. If they are honest, however, most would admit to having taken at least a haircut and a shave, if not a bath, from late September 2008 to the present.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Financial Markets Heading for Less Volatility During 2009 / Stock-Markets / Volatility
If you had to choose one word to describe this year, it would probably be “volatile.” That 2008 was characterized by volatility is an understatement. Such volatility hasn’t been seen in decades.
Not only was price volatility at an extreme this year but so was share turnover. Take a look at the following chart of the NYSE Composite Index for 2008. The red dots indicate the number of times the upside/downside or downside/upside trading volume ratio was beyond the boundary that has historically characterized “overbought” or “oversold.” Needless to say 2008 was a record year in terms of volume turnover.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Market Valuations and Dow 5,000 Redux / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
What is fair value for stocks? Are they now cheap? You can certainly make that argument by comparing valuations based on past performance. But repeat after me, "Past performance is not indicative of future returns." The investment climate of today is almost certainly going to be quite different than that of the 80's and 90's. Thus, to expect stocks to repeat the performance of the last bull market in a climate of government intervention, deleveraging and increased regulations may not be realistic?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 9th December / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above the reaction high crossing at 1201.00 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1158.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the index.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Markets Get Stimulated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Equity markets continue to put a remarkably positive spin on last Friday's calamitous jobs numbers. Indeed since the low of 741 on November 22nd, the S&P 500 has rallied 22% . Does this then qualify as a bull market? Or merely the seasonal media friendly Santa Claus rally? And all this despite more layoffs from Dow Chemical, UBS and MMM and profit warnings from stocks as diverse as Texas Instruments, FEDEX and trucking company Con-Way.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Bullish Stock Market Charts for S&P, Nasdaq, BKK and Gold / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Here are some bullish looking charts we are looking at. The first two show Ellliot Wave counts that we have been tracking for some time. For some background theory on Elliott Wave, please see my October 10 post S&P 500 Crash Count .Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Market's Spectacular Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
A spectacular start to the week, as the futures were sharply higher before the opening, and as a result the indices and many stocks gapped up at the opening. The indices had a sharp morning rally which hit its morning high about 75 min after the opening . They then went into a downward sloping multi-hour consolidation . When an afternoon nominal downside break failed to follow through, they turned around and rallied strongly, moving to new session and 3 week highs, with the Nasdaq 100 reaching the 1237 range and the S&P 500 getting up to near 919. A late pullback brought them back sharply, although in the last few minutes they bounced again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Financial System in Collapse, Credit Crisis Worst Yet to Come / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Mark Twain once said that “if you don't read the newspaper, you are uniformed. If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed”. It is no surprise then, even to people who don't follow the news, that a truly serious financial crisis is sweeping the world.
The headlines of newspapers and internet portals speak for themselves. Readers are inundated with facts about what is taking place. At one moment, bank write-offs to the extent of trillions are being discussed. The next moment, notice is given of guardian-angel intervention by governments and interest rate cuts by central banks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Rebuilding Financial Markets Confidence / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Headlines and the news programs were loaded with the dire news of over 500,000 newly unemployed and how the economy is headed into territory it has visited only once in our history. So why did the stock market rise by nearly 300 points by the trading days end? It might be that the 40% decline over the past year has already factored in much of the bad news already. As we have been discussing over the past two months, the economic data will be bad for at least the next couple of months as the credit collapse works its way through the economy. The coming week will hit a wide swath of the economic landscape, from housing to sentiment to inflation and trade.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
How to Survive the Credit Crisis / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Before it became the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, the credit crisis used to be an arcane topic discussed only in financial publications. Now, it's on every computer, television screen, and front page of every newspaper in the world.
In these tough economic times, you'll be hard pressed to find a more relevant and useful free resource than the Credit Crisis Survival Kit. It's packed with 15 hand-picked reports, videos, and articles to help individuals survive and prosper from the Credit Crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
U.S. Homebuilders Stock Pulling Back from Peak / Stock-Markets / Housing Stocks
The SPDR Select Homebuilders ETF (AMEX: XHB) has gone "red" now after hitting a first-hour high at 13.50 (which we noted on Dec 4 as our first target area), which happens to be 64% above the Nov 21 low at 8.21. The XHB represents the most beaten-down of market sectors (along with the financials), and led on the upside during the Nov-Dec upmove.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Huge Job Losses Spark Stock Market Rally! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
So on Friday we had the largest number of job losses since 1974. But stocks rallied hard and bonds sold off; highly illogical as Mr Spock would say . Though exactly the same thing happened back in 1974 when stocks staged a stunning rally despite shatteringly poor economic news as investors called a bottom.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Financial Markets See More Contractions / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Markets received a jolt of pain on Friday, as US employment numbers came in at -533,000, way beyond consensus estimates. The figures were the worst for three decades and are yet another instance to add to the ever growing pile of “once in a generation” type extremes that we've seen in 2008. Friday’s numbers were predicted by just one outfit (ING) and that was seen as an outlier. However, as a sign, that perhaps markets are becoming inured to the dreadful economic news US markets actually managed to rally into the close on Friday. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished down on the week, but well above the week’s lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Manipulated Stock Market Discounting a Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
Welcome to the Weekly Report. This week some fool decided the US had been in recession for a year. I hope they don't get paid too much. What I find amusing is that straight away all sorts of bull side writers and shills started talking about the US stock market being a discounting system, looking 6 months ahead, look for signs of recovery etc blah.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Investors Selling Safe Treasury Bonds to Buy Higher Risk Equties / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Last week we wrote about the Lehman 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) as an indicator of flight to safety, which we believed was starting to wane. On Friday the TLTs, which move inversely to yields, violated an important initial support plateau at 111.45, while equities rallied, the first such signal that some more money is coming out of the safety of ZERO return, seeking "a bit more risk."Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Stock Market Technicals Point to Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The good news is: Downside volume has been fading quickly.
Short Term Downside volume and new lows are the best indicators of bottoms.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Fed Gambles Trillions to Stabilise Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
Over a Half Million Jobs Axed in November. There is no joy on Main Street this holiday season as 533,000 jobs were axed in November.
“Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-533,000) in November, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and 320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors in November.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
Stock Market Volatility Connecting the Dots Analysis Video / Stock-Markets / Volatility
One of the easiest ways to determine the trend in any market is simply to connect the dot's. In this five minute video, I explain how you can connect the dots in any market to determine its trend. I will show you three examples of connecting the dots...Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
US Jobs Report To Set Market Tone / Stock-Markets / Recession 2008 - 2010
Yesterday was another sloppy day for stocks which sagged under the weight of earnings misses and dismal 2009 guidance (Nokia, Merck), big layoff announcements (AT&T, DuPont), weak chain stores sales numbers and ever widening credit spreads for corporates. This sell off comes despite another supportive plunge in the price of crude oil and more eye catching rate cuts from central banks in New Zealand, Indonesia, Sweden, UK and the Eurozone.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 05, 2008
Stocks Bear Market When Will it End? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The importance of reviewing leading indicators Analysts, market pundits and the financial media are all looking for evidence of the current bear market bottom. Many forecasts from market experts have been announced over the past few weeks that a low may have already been established in the S&P 500. The rational for this statement covers the range from the historical decline percentage of bear markets over the past 60 years, the much quoted TED spread and its recent narrowing, the all-time high of the volatility index (VIX) and attractive valuations on many, many stocks.Read full article... Read full article...