Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, January 16, 2009
Farrell's Rule #2 U.S. Stocks Won't Bottom Before 2011, 25% Below End 2008 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Farrell's Rule # 2: "Excesses of stock prices above the long-term average are invariably followed by excesses of an equal magnitude below".
So what is the long-term average?
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Friday, January 16, 2009
Obama Stimulus Boom for Canadian Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Investors are already positioning themselves in U.S. stocks to make the most of the boom fueled by Obama's stimulus plan. While many of these picks could rally nicely as our government throws hundreds of billions at our economic problems, they're not outside the box. Or maybe I should say “outside the borders.”Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Post Stock Market Panic Rallies / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
2008, of course, was the worst year for the stock markets in memory. We've never seen anything like it in our lifetimes. The Great Depression of the 1930s was worse, but in order to have been old enough to care about the stock markets back then a trader would have to be around 95 years old today. For all but that elderly infinitesimal fraction of today's traders, 2008 was utterly unprecedented.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 16th January 2009 / Stock-Markets / Futures Trading
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1219.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Stock, Commodities and Real Estate Asset Price Drivers 2009-2010 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
In a January 7, 2009 article, 2009: Major Post Asset Deflation Themes , we outlined the major investment themes for 2009. This article will expand on the primary drivers of asset prices and secular investment trends. These topics can help investors successfully manage their portfolio during the transition from current concerns about deflation to future concerns about inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
Tech Stocks Trump Banks But Possible Trouble Ahead / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
A strong performance from Intel, Amazon and Blackberry maker Motion masked what was another very bleak day for banking stocks with Citigroup -15.5% to below $4 and BoA - 20% to levels not seen since 1991. With Citi trading well below the key $5 trigger point, many fund managers will be obliged to dump the stock at month end rebalancing as they are precluded from holding stocks who have cheapened that much. Déjà vu; recall the Lehman death-watch?! For BoA the wider market is fretting that further taxpayer capital injections mean further dilution and more write offs forcing other banks to follow suit.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 16, 2009
How Financial Markets Deregulation Picked Our Pockets / Stock-Markets / Market Regulation
Shah Gilani writes: “I have a funny feeling that we're not in Kansas, anymore.” Like Dorothy's sublime observation of the surreal in “The Wizard of Oz,” our taking stock of where we are in the vortex of this economic tornado leads us to the same scary observation.
It also forces us to ask some tough questions – questions for which there may be no simple answers. Key among them:
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Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock Market Volatile Turnaround Session / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The indices had a volatile session, plunging at the opening and reaching new 6-7 day pullback lows in the morning. They bounced in what looked like bear-flag fashion, and sure enough did roll over, with the S&P 500 taking out the lows, but the NDX did not at that point. That set up a positive divergence, resulting in a very sharp rally that took the NDX from 1143 to 1193, about a 50-point rally inside of the next couple hours. The S&P 500 went from 817 to 851.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock and Currency Markets Risk Aversion Ahead of Obama Inauguration / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Prolonged risk aversion is expected to ensue until Tuesdays presidential inauguration brings in a temporary feel good rally. Having made their third failed attempt to rise more than 25% since the intensification of the crisis, equities, VIX and the yen are expected to further move in the direction of prolonged reduction in risk appetite (equities negative, yen positive, VIX positive). I warned in the Jan 2 nd piece Risk Appetite Pushes the Envelope that the trio of risk appetite will be constrained near 940 for the S&P500, $850 for gold (having failed to break its 8-week cycle gains) and 92.50 yen in USDJPY.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock Markets Could Rise a Wall of Terror! / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Just How Much Money is Out There? - There's no end to the talk of how much cash is sitting on the sidelines just raring to be put to good investment use. We hear of mutual funds net cash positions at all time highs; we hear of investors turning to – of all things – bank accounts and CDs to park their cash (say it isn't so!); we hear of foreign investors loading up on treasuries as a safe haven bet; and we wonder just how much money really is out there.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Wall Street Corruption & Despair Continue / Stock-Markets / Scams
Can you believe a 50 billion dollar ponzi scheme?
Seems a lot of folks prized their friendship with Bernard Madoff. He must have been “Uncle Bernie” to the scores of wealthy investors who trusted him and loved those guaranteed 10 to 12% investment returns. A real picture here of what our economy has evolved into these past 20 years. Many simply lost their fortunes and others lost their lives.
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Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 15th January 2009 / Stock-Markets / Futures Trading
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends this week's decline and is below support marked by the reaction low crossing at 1156.25. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1222.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Preparing Precisely for Financial Market Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Let me ask you something. How many times have you heard a bottom called in a market...any market? I mean, it's amazing that not only are these people still allowed to publicly express their opinions, but people still listen to them as well.
It shouldn't be that surprising. Almost every Tom, Dick, and Harry with an Ameritrade or Schwab trading account doesn't have a clue what's going on in the stock market or any other financial market for that matter. So I guess the advisers and analysts that they get their advice from only have to be slightly more intelligent.
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Thursday, January 15, 2009
Risk Aversion Returns To Haunt Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
It's now official; the horrific US retails sales numbers yesterday confirm that for many consumers Christmas was indeed cancelled. The price action in equity markets tells us that the New Year is less “hey ho, hey ho” and now “I owe, I owe, it's off to sell stocks we go”. Worth noting is that the index of banking stocks plummeted through the lows of November 2008 yesterday. There really was nowhere to hide with the broader S&P 500 and the NASDAQ faring even worse in terms of percentage declines.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Stock Market Forecast 2009 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
With the New Year comes the annual tradition of predictions on where the stock market is headed. It has been a long time since I have so much variability in forecasts. Main stream economists have abandoned the usual permabull stance and many are in fact predicting large declines. Most, however, continue with a staunch approach of buy-and-hold in the face of the biggest declines since 2001. Any buy-and-hold investor who purchased after 1997 is now officially sitting in the red.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Ouch! Stock Market Takes It On The Chin / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
All things considered, the beating stocks took yesterday was quite expected. It seemed clear that support was going to be breached on the indexes. As shown on the charts below, there is one last line of defense for the Dow Jones Industrial and the S&P 500 before reaching the lows. Notice also, that volume has been picking up over the last several days. That is not a good sign for the bulls.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Stock Market Indices Plunge and Close Sharply Lower / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Quite a negative session today. The indices plunged from the get-go as pre-market futures were sharply lower. They went lower and sharply so all morning, hit the morning lows after about an hour and a half, and then bounced around for several ours in consolidation mode. They did try to break out mid-afternoon and made slightly higher rally highs, but couldn't follow through overhead resistance and rolled over to new 6 day lows on the Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 tested the lows but didn't confirm the NDX downside move, and they then both bounced into the close.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Insitutional Investors Stock Index Trading Range Breakout Imminent / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
This Friday, it will be 6 full weeks that the Institutional Index has stayed within its trading range ... will it make it that long?
It was exactly one week ago when we showed you the 60 minute Point & Figure chart for the Institutional "core holdings" index. Last week's chart is posted first, followed by this week's chart.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 14th January 2009 / Stock-Markets / Futures Trading
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it extends Monday's decline below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1231.42 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Stock Markets Waiting on Obamulus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
Here is a new word for your lexicon. Obama + Stimulus = Obamulus. In a word that is what the market is focused upon plus key bellwether earnings reports due Thursday from JP Morgan, Intel and Genetech. Indices turned around yesterday after Bernanke's (“I'm all in”) LSE speech and word that Senate Majority leader Reid believes he has enough votes to get approval for the additional $350bn of the TARP. So led by financials the blue chip Dow finished only modestly lower with the broader indices and the NASDAQ getting their head above water.Read full article... Read full article...