Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, March 19, 2009
Stock Market Profit-Taking Sets In / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Profit-taking finally set in after 7 out of 8 days on the upside, as the indices were extremely overbought this morning, with the McClellen Oscillator +328. I wasn't surprised to see the market move lower, but they did start out with a pop to the upside, reaching the session highs right in the first few minutes. Then they stair-stepped down in a 3-wave decline from 1220 NDX to about 1196, about a 24-point drop in the first hour and a half or so, and the SPX dropped from 803 to 783, about 20 points.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally at Cross Roads / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Even after the current "powerful rally", the S&P 500 is still down over 12% YTD , something to keep in mind if you feel we are missing something. All we have missed year-to-date is a 12% loss. Bear markets always give people a reason to stick around. Yesterday , we commented, ...rather than signaling the end of the bear market, the more probable outcome for the current rally in the S&P 500 is for it to fail somewhere between current levels and 806. This rally may have further to run, but Wednesday's high on the S&P 500 was 803.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Are We Near a Low in the Stock Decline? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Two Unique Charts Reveal the Answer - Robert Prechter, New York Times best-selling author and renowned market analyst, was recently asked to present his thoughts on the real estate market and the financial crisis to the Georgia Legislature. The following article has been adapted from the transcript. Elliott Wave International has made the full presentation available free , including the full transcript and 30-minute online video.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Stock Market Investing Buy and Hold vs. The Right Time to Buy / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Many investors were taught that buy and hold is the best investing strategy. None other than Professor Jeremy Siegel author of Stocks for the Long Run, 4th Edition: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns And Long Term Investment Strategies is a strong proponent of the buy and hold approach support this method. In a recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal, stating that stocks were cheap now and investors should buy. With the DJIA at lows not seen since 1997, it has been very tough for the buy and hold crowd. Could you have done better by timing your entries and exits?Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Stock Market Indices Now Short-Term Overbought After Post-FOMC Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It was a very interesting market today on FOMC announcement day. The indices backed and filled in the morning, were lower for most of the morning session, rallied by mid-day before the FOMC announcement, and then exploded after the FOMC announced the purchase of hundreds of billions dollars worth of treasuries. After a spike up that took the NDX up to 1225 and the SPX up to 803, at key overhead resistance on the SPX and above it on the NDX, the indices then had a sharp pullback that brought them back down by 30 NDX points and about 18 SPX points. In the last 15-20 minutes they bounced again and took back some of the late losses.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Stock Market Bottom and the Bookstore Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
It’s hard to be positive about the stock market when all around us gloom prevails. Visiting a local Barnes & Noble recently made me conscious of just how gloomy everyone is feeling these days.
While there I made a list of some of the titles in the financial section. Finding a book these days with a bullish theme – or even a non-emotional, level-headed theme –is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. All I saw was one bearish tome after another. Here’s the list of titles I compiled:
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Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Stock Market Volume Gives Shorts The Upper Hand / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Rather than signaling the end of the bear market, the more probable outcome for the current rally in the S&P 500 is for it to fail somewhere between current levels and 806. Trading volume can help us understand market participants' collective desire to buy or sell a particular security or index. To formulate probable outcomes for the current rally in stocks, we will compare the S&P 500 long ETF (SPY) with the S&P 500 short ETF (SH). As we walk through this analysis, notice we are focusing on observable facts rather than forecasting what the future may hold. We assume we will get more of the same (lower lows in SPY/S&P 500 Index) until we see evidence to the contrary (higher highs, better volume, etc).
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Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Main Street vs. Wall Street: And the Winner Is… / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Last Sunday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke jumped into the Public Relations Politics foray when he appeared on 60 Minutes .
The political marketers were out in full force on this one. They did everything from the visit of Bernanke's childhood home (which is now in foreclosure) to the close up of “Main Street” sign to the conversation on the street side bench in rural South Carolina. It was the perfect image of “I'm like you” kind of PR the government decision-makers are looking for right now.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
FTSE 100 Index Stealth Bull Market as Bear Market Bottoms at 3,460 / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
The FTSE 100 index fulfilled its bear market target as per the forecast of 20th January 2009 which called for a target Low at 3,400. Whilst much of my analysis has been focused on the Dow Jones Index, however as I have stated several times over recent months that the FTSE would closely track the DJIA in terms of bear market timing, but with a more positive % advantage to the Dow Index due to the impact of the overall continuing bearish trend of Sterling against the U.S. Dollar.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Stock Market Will Not Bottom Without the Banking Index / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Some investors were excited last week with a nice market move on oversold conditions.
Is it real, or is it part of a market attempt to find a bottom?
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Stock Market P/E Ratios could fall to 5 Before the Market Hits Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Measured in terms of the price to earnings ratio (P/E), the US stock market looks good value. That's if you look at recent history and how the market was priced in previous recessions.At the market bottom in 2001, for example, the P/E ratio of the US S&P 500 index was around 20. In the 1990-1991 recession, that figure was around 15.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
The Huge Chain Reaction Driving Share Prices Higher / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Fundamentals have led a lot of investors into “value traps”. These are stocks that look cheap (i.e. with low price to earnings ratios) but more importantly have miserable prospects going forward. However, there's one indicator that continues to reveal winners despite the credit crunch…It's time to look into the world of currencies.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Has not Bottomed But Some Stocks Worth Buying / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The FTSE 100 rose sharply yesterday, buoyed up by increased optimism on the banking sector.
And quite a few high profile names have been saying it's time to buy. Anthony Bolton has been calling the bottom (though not for the first time), while famously bearish US fund manager Jeremy Grantham has become increasingly upbeat on stocks in recent months.
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Financial Crisis Worst is Yet to Come, Market Forecasts Into 2015 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Most investors don't take seriously warnings about the future of the economy and the financial marketplace, but those who did avoided the dreaded "Cs" of finance: the Credit Crisis and Crash of '08. What warnings are we talking about you might ask? Well, it was the headlines of several years ago screaming that a 'Category 6 Fiscal Storm', 'Debt-Driven Meltdown', 'Systemic Banking Crisis', 'Financial Train Wreck', 'Wild Ride', 'God-Awful Fiscal Storm', 'Major Upheaval', 'Rude Awakening', 'Great Disruption', 'Debt Bombshell', 'Major Upheaval', 'Unwelcome Economic Spiral', 'Perfect Financial Storm', 'Serious Collapse', 'Drastic Fall', 'Financial Disaster', 'Major Bear Market' and/or an 'Economic Earthquake' was in store for the U.S. and, indeed, the global economy in the very near future. And the future is now!Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
Stock Market Afternoon Slide Ends 4 Session Run / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
The markets were rather volatile on Monday. They had three major swings on the NDX and two moves on the SPX, but the bottom line was they moved sharply lower in the afternoon to close near the lows for the day going away in negative territory after being up most of the morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
Who is Really Making Money? Part III / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
In Part II of this series, I discussed how Don Luskin serves as one of the biggest Wall Street hacks on TV. This is specifically why Larry Kudlow has him on his pro-Wall Street, neo-conservatism show. I demonstrated just how dedicated Luskin is towards this mission by discussing his ever so timely op-ed in the Washington Post. So let me finish where I left off.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Favors Lower Lows / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
There is no shortage of forecasters who continue to call a bottom in stocks. As appealing as that may appear to the casual observer, the wise investor is aware of the inherent danger of listening to anyone's forecast for the financial markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
This is a Stocks Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It seems as all investors are from Missouri, the show-me state, inasmuch as they would like to embrace the latest run in stocks, they are leery that another break is just around the corner. Spurring stocks higher were commends from a variety of banks that they were profitable in the early months of the year (this does not include any nasty write-downs of toxic debt!). With a yield curve as steep as it is, it really should be of little surprise that “regular” banking is profitable – pay little for CDs and make loans at four percentage points more.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
The Grand Super-Cycle SPX Technical Conditions / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Throw Mama From The Train – a funny and entertaining movie depending on who you are. But more so in terms of present circumstances in the stock market – a reflection of what we must live with right now as well. Mama was demeaning and aggravating in the movie, just like the market(s) in real life today. And unfortunately it's enough to make people throw their sensibilities away. In this respect everybody is so worried about missing a rally out of oversold conditions they keep gambling it's going to bounce, which does not allow for a sustainable squeeze higher. That's why stocks can't rally, because the trade is stubborn, complacent and bullish. This is of course a function of the spoiled brat mentality excessively good times for too long will foster. Thank you again, Mr. Greenspan.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 16, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Investment Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Martin Weiss Writes: I've been waiting patiently for a short-term rally in the stock market to buy a new batch of bear market investments.
Now we have it.
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