Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 15, 2019
US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions. Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.
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Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This section of our multi-part article regarding current and past central bank actions, we are going to attempt to look at key elements of the past and present to highlight what we believe may turn out to be an incredible “setup” in the global markets.
This setup is almost like a complex chess game where two skilled players battle for control and near the end of the game, one player is left with the King, a Rook, and a Pawn while the other player has a dramatic advantage with stronger chess pieces. Yet, as the game continues, the weaker player is able to remove one or two of the stronger players key pieces and move his pawn to his opponent’s side to recover his Queen – thus altering the dynamic of the game and eventually winning.
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Tuesday, August 13, 2019
August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019. Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019. In May/June, we altered this date to align more closely with our super-cycle research and determined the August 19, 2019 date.
It is our belief that this date will initiate a breakdown price move that may align with external news related or economic related data. Our research continues to point to the potential for a large global breakdown in equity prices related to some type of near-crisis event. It could be related to something within the US or outside the US – but either way, we slice it, August 19 looks to be the date we need to focus on.
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Tuesday, August 13, 2019
Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed and used to chase returns, risk and opportunity and may continue to be deployed more efficiently going forward.
Read Part I of this series here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...
The recent news that the global central banks may begin a new round of stimulus and easing got us thinking – “what next?”. Over the past 10 to 20+ years, global central banks have attempted to prompt an economic recovery that seems to slip past economic planners and we believe that is because core functions of the global economy are weaker than many expect. We’re going to try to explore some of these factors and prepare traders for what may come in the future months.
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Tuesday, August 13, 2019
Stock Market Bears Critically Endangered / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The second week of August played out to the extreme levels accordingly as the market found the temporary bottom at 2775 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), at around the macro 200 day moving average. This level also acted as a higher low relative to the March/June 2019 bottom. Then, the bulls' counterattack against the bears was life threatening as price action retraced 61.8% of the entire 3029.5-2775.75 range and wrapped up the week around the highs in the 2920s.
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Tuesday, August 13, 2019
Financial Success Formula Failure / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
The US economy grew at a 2.1% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to data released last week. That was better than economists expected but hardly impressive.
Even President Trump recognized this, tweeting the growth rate was “not bad considering we have the very heavy weight of the Federal Reserve anchor wrapped around our neck.”
That’s the same Federal Reserve of which Trump himself appointed the chair and a majority of board members. But I guess he has to blame somebody.
Monday, August 12, 2019
More Stock Market Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, August 12, 2019
I Told You The Stock Market Will Get Wild - Prepare To Be Whipsawed Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
The Fed. The China trade deal. The House of Representatives impeachment proceedings. The Iranian aggression. North Korea firing missiles. Slowing growth in the world economy. As you can see, there are many issues worrying investors today. And, as the market moves up and down through these large gyrations these last two weeks, one excuse is paraded out after another.
When the market drops, it is supposedly because of “fears about the trade deal.” When the market rallies, I see headlines stating “the market rallies on lowered trade fears.” Sadly, this is the best the media and pundits can do. They really have no clue what is happening to the market.
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Monday, August 12, 2019
Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent news that the US Fed, China and many of the global central banks are continuing to make efforts to lower rates and spark further consumer spending and economic activity is reminiscent of the late 2010~2013 global economic recovery efforts. This was a time when the economy was much slower than current levels and when central banks were doing everything possible to attempt to raise consumer and business activity related to capital.
The world’s governments and banks operate on a very simple premise – transactions and economic activity must continue to operate within a fairly standard range of consistency in order for tax revenues and transactional fees to drive profits/income. If extended periods of economic contraction persist, the capacity to function within standard operating parameters diminishes very quickly for these institutions. A -5% to -10% contraction in asset values, transactional business, tax revenues and/or consumer activity over an extended period of time could result in a catastrophic set of events taking place.
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Sunday, August 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The U.S. stock market continues to rally. V-shaped rallies are uncommon, but not impossible. Today’s headlines:
- V-shaped bounce
- Volatility is falling
- % of stocks above their 50 dma is rising
- AAII sentiment crashed
- NAAIM sentiment crashed
Sunday, August 11, 2019
Precious Metals and Stocks VIX Are About To Pull A “Crazy Ivan” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’re borrowing a term from the movie Red October (source) that describes an unusual change of direction for a Russian submarine with the intent to seek out enemies and unknown targets – called a “Crazy Ivan”. We are using this term because we believe the markets are about to pull a very unusual “Crazy Ivan” move of their own – reverting to unknown price levels while the US/Global markets attempt to seek out risk, support, resistance and other unknown “revaluation” targets in the process.
Our belief is that a key cycle date, August 19, 2019, will be the start of a breakdown in the US markets that aligns with some outside type of catalyst event. It could be that foreign central banks issue some news or warning at that time or it could be that Asia/China issue some type of catalyst to the event. We don’t know what the catalyst will be but we can guess that it will be related to geopolitics or the global economy/credit/debt issues. God forbid it to be some type of war or human crisis event – we really don’t need that right now.
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Sunday, August 11, 2019
Traders: Which Markets Should You Trade? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Submissions
As technology advances and trading innovation continues, many traders want to diversify their investments. The prospect of making more profits have led many into trading markets they never thought possible. Although traders are continually seeking better markets and improved opportunities to explore, not many are in the know of the types of trading instruments available in this digital age. Surprisingly, traders are not the only ones looking to improve their chances of earning more. Even seemingly different markets are now attempting to steal each other's market share. For instance, traders no longer need to buy physical gold or even from a futures contract to participate in the movement of gold prices; instead, they can now buy an exchange traded fund (ETF). With that being said, similar scenarios are now possible with stock, currencies, commodities, and other investments. Hence, traders generally have a wealth of diversified opportunities they can leverage to their individual circumstances.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 10, 2019
Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market and bond yields recovered today from an early morning decline. Meanwhile, financial markets have exhibited some extreme flight-to-quality over the past few days. Today’s headlines:
- Lots of gaps
- Put/Call ratio remains high
- Flight to quality: part 1
- Flight to quality: part 2
- Similarities between today and 2016
- Bullish Percent falling to a new low
- Gold spiked (again)
Friday, August 09, 2019
Our Custom Index Charts Suggest Stock Markets Are In For A Wild Ride / Stock-Markets / Austrian Economics
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past week, our members have been emailing us and asking us “what’s going to happen next” and “any updates on the move in metals and the US stock markets”. With this incredible downside move prompted by the US Fed and the US/China trade talk failure, it certainly appears that the markets are poised for something big and dramatic.
We dove into our custom indicator charts to try to get a better gauge of the current market environment and to help illustrate that our research team has been all over this move for months. Before we get started, we want to urge our followers to read the following research posts :
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Thursday, August 08, 2019
Technical Analysis of US Major Stocks / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Justin_Weinger
Microsoft (MSFT)
At the present time, Microsoft is one of the best-performing major US stocks, up 59% since January 2019. Even though the tech sector had quite a bumpy ride for the past year and a half, the major software company continued to advance higher, exceeding the $1 trillion market cap valuation.
Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Where's the Stock Market bottom? Is this IT? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend. Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT? The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?”
Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for. This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets. Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we've been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders.
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Tuesday, August 06, 2019
Stock Market Setting Up for Dead-Cat Bounce or Liquidation Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
The last week of July/first week of August was quite interesting as volatility is finally back. The bears got their resurrection by closing below the ongoing "sh*t hits the fan level" at 2955 on Thursday August 1. Essentially, active traders and investors had to de-risk and go into more defensive positions. The risk-off scenario continues with the price action confirmation below both the key trending daily 8/20EMAs and also the 2955 level. Obviously, a lot of growth stocks and higher beta names got hit hard and the weakness will continue until stabilization occurs.
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Monday, August 05, 2019
Stock Market Intermediate Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 05, 2019
Is This The Start Of The Next Stocks Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few days, we’ve received hundreds of emails from our followers and members asking if this is the big breakdown that everyone has been expecting in the markets. Yes, we’ve warned that it will likely happen before the end of 2019, but we’ve also been very clear that we believe an August 19, 2019 price peak will setup this move and our recent research suggest the NQ will rally to levels above 8200 before this peak in the US market sets up. So, in order to help our members and followers understand what we believe is actually happening in the markets, we’ve put together this research post to help everyone better prepare for the next few weeks and months.
Friday, August 02, 2019
Trump Trade Tariffs US War with China Mega-trend Impact on Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / China US Conflict
By: Nadeem_Walayat
For some reason there are still mainstream media journalists out there going on about how China is winning the trade war against the US. Perhaps they just want to pump out any propaganda that hurts trumps re-election prospects? Or more likely are clueless automatons whose primary purpose is to regurgitate the editorial line of media out fits they represent. Anyway they are still just as wrong as they have been for the duration of the Trump presidency.