Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Trade War Escalation Put Selling Pressure to S&P 500 (SPX)

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019 Aug 27, 2019 - 02:11 PM GMT

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Stock-Markets

Last week, there was anticipation of market volatility as the Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell was scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole. President Trump and China however stole the show. China introduced fresh retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports, targeting politically sensitive products. President Trump immediately responded. Trump announced in twitter the existing 25% tariffs on $250 billion Chinese goods will rise to 30% on October 1. In addition, the 10% tariffs on another $300 billion Chinese Goods will rise to 15% instead on September 1.

In a series of Tweet storm, Trump also accused Powell of a bigger enemy than China’s President Xi Jinping and issued an order to American companies to get out of China.


“Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA,” Trump wrote. The move came after the market closed and before Trump departs to G7 summit in France.  The National Retail Federation issued a statement on Friday saying that the tariffs approach is not working.

On Sunday at the G7 summit however, President Trump said that he has a second thought on escalating the trade war with China. The G-7 leaders seem to have successfully nudged the President gently to dial down his aggressive stance against China. It remains to be seen if Trump withdraws his threats last Friday, whether fully or partially. In the meantime, one thing for certain is that the market will continue to be uncertain and volatile.

S&P 500 Longer Term View

It remains to be our call that the cycle from 2009 low is mature and S&P 500 should soon pullback in wave (IV) in larger 3 waves at least. As we said in the previous article, a yield curve inversion in the past precedes a recession by about 2 years in time. Therefore, we still can not rule out one last rally in wave (V) later before the biggest pullback happens. The alternate view suggests the rally in S&P 500 is in a 3 waves (a)-(b)-(c) zigzag and in this case the biggest pullback is already due.

S&P 500 closed below 2018 trend line

The bulls tried to hold above the 2018 ascending trend line last week but failed to do it. The Index has now decisively closed below the trend line. If the Index has started to do the wave (IV) pullback as the first chart suggests, then it can potentially go to 2125 – 2470 as the next potential strong support. This is the 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement from wave (II) low in 2009 . It also has the support of the ascending trend line and 200 weekly moving average.

Short Term S&P 500 Outlook

Short Term outlook in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests further downside is likely. The view will get further confirmation if the Index is able to break below August 5 low (2822) next week. Once August 5 low breaks, the next short term minimum target is 2610 – 2736. With weekly close below the trend line from 2018 high, the odd suggests for further downside in coming weeks.

For further update in S&P 500 and other stocks, ETF, forex, or commodity, you can try our 14 days FREE trial.

By EWFHendra

https://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup .

Copyright © 2019 ElliottWave-Forecast - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cann


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in