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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, August 23, 2019

Stock Market August Breakdown Prediction and Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our August 19th breakdown prediction aligns with our other analysis tools and predictive modeling systems.  The key to understanding price action lies in two modes of operational aspects for analysts.  Either the analysis is going to be correct and the markets will break down as we have predicted or the analysis will be incorrect and the markets will break higher to rally to new highs.  We call this the “failure to fail” mode or the “failure to succeed” mode of compliance for price.  Either it will do what we expect or it won’t.

There are a few things that we, as analysts, must take into consideration with regards to future predictions of price action and direction.  First, sometimes we fail to make perfect predictions.  It is not easy or 100% guaranteed that our predictions will become valid or accurate on the day we suggest price should move in a certain direction. 

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Stocks Likely to Breakout Instead of Gold / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Harry_Dent

The funny thing is that gold and stocks currently seem to like the same thing: more money printing.

Treasury bonds keep falling in rates and we’re seeing a slowing global economy despite Trump’s tax cuts and central banks leaning towards easing. That has hurt stocks a bit, as has the recent near break-off in trade negotiations with China. Markets were fearing a currency war now that the trade war is at an impasse.

So, no surprise gold has been rallying here. But for stocks, the surprise is that they’re holding up as well as they are considering the slow growth foreshadowed by the bond markets and trade impasses.
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Next Stock Market Breakdown And The Setup / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you’ve been following our research long enough, you’ll remember that we often discuss Fibonacci Price Theory and how we use it to try to identify opportunities and trends in the markets.  The basic premise of Fibonacci Price Theory is that price is always seeking to establish newer highs or newer lows with every rotation on the charts.  The theory is rather simple to understand and learn and it helps easily identify where support, resistance, and the trend is established.  Let’s take a minute to go over the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory before we continue.

This first example of Fibonacci Price Theory trend is a simple example that highlights the basic premise of the theory – price move always attempts to establish new price highs or new price lows in a trend.  Therefore, in a downtrend, we would attempt to observe price in a simple structure as you see on the left side of this example – establishing new lower lows and new lower highs in a series of waves.  In an uptrend, we would attempt to observe price in an opposite structure where new higher highs and new higher lows are set up.  Fairly simple so far – right?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 19, 2019

Stock Market One Step Closer to Confirming That August Low Is In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Ricky_Wen

The second week of August was pretty simple as the market followed our expectations from the previous weekend report. If you recall, the market chose to follow scenario 1 on the daily chart timeframe by backtesting into the 2858-2836 zone on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). This was the 50%-61.8% Fib retracement zone of the 2775 to 2940 V-shape recovery, creating a higher-lows setup. In addition, our must-hold level at 2823 held last Wednesday and Thursday as price stick-saved against this key level precisely and the bulls did their job in terms of the two massive feedback loop squeeze setups.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 19, 2019

The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere In The Last Twelve Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

So, as the bulls pat themselves on the back for holding all the way down last year for a 20% draw down so that they can “enjoy” the rally we got in 2019, I hope they don’t hurt their arms and shoulders from all their back-patting. But, they may be in for a dose of realism when they realize that the market has now been completely flat for the last twelve months.

Allow me to show you a simple fact that should make bulls feel like they have exerted a lot of energy and worry, only to be completely flat over the last year. (And, yes, I am going to use a date from the middle of this past week for a reason). On August 14th of 2018, the SPX closed at 2839.96. And, now, one year later, on August 14th, 2019, the SPX closed at 2840.60.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 19, 2019

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  We have started a correction of intermediate nature.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Negative Bond Market Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Stock Market Leadership / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this suggests that global capital investors are seeking out alternative solutions to adequately develop longer-term opportunities and to develop native growth prospects that don’t currently exist.

Our research team has been researching this phenomenon and how it relates to the continued “capital shift” that is taking place throughout the globe.  We believe we have some answers for anyone interested in our opinions.  We also believe the longer-term answers will depend on what happens over the next 5 to 7 years throughout the globe and how economic expectations shift as well as how global debt is dealt with.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, August 16, 2019

Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets.  It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these predictions months in advance.  In this second part of our metals & Aug 19 update post, we’ll try to highlight our expectations going into the weekend prior to the Aug 19 breakdown date (Monday).

In the first part of this research post, we highlighted what we believe is the imminent completion of the MID Leg 1 upside move in precious metals.  Our research continues to suggest that we are still setting up a major LEG 1 upside move which should be considered a larger Elliot Wave structure.  Within this Wave (Leg) 1 formation, a typical 5 wave structure is likely to continue forming.  Currently, we are creating the Wave 3 of the total of 5 waves that will complete a finished upside Wave (Leg 1).

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 15, 2019

US Stock Market Could Fall 12% to 25% / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In this last segment of our multi-part research post regarding the US Fed and the global central banks, it is becoming evident that the fear of a further market contraction is resulting in the decrease in rates and the push for additional QE functions.  Our research has shown that the global economy has partially recovered from the 2008-09 credit market collapse, but the process of the recovery has resulted in a “blowout” type of event where shifting capital intents and the transition from the 19th century economic model towards a new 21st century economic model is setting up the global markets for a massive rotation event over the next 12 to 24 months – possibly longer.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Central Banks Move To Keep The Global Markets Party Rolling – Part III / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

This section of our multi-part article regarding current and past central bank actions, we are going to attempt to look at key elements of the past and present to highlight what we believe may turn out to be an incredible “setup” in the global markets. 

This setup is almost like a complex chess game where two skilled players battle for control and near the end of the game, one player is left with the King, a Rook, and a Pawn while the other player has a dramatic advantage with stronger chess pieces.  Yet, as the game continues, the weaker player is able to remove one or two of the stronger players key pieces and move his pawn to his opponent’s side to recover his Queen – thus altering the dynamic of the game and eventually winning.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Stock Market Event Only A Few Days Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019.  Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019.  In May/June, we altered this date to align more closely with our super-cycle research and determined the August 19, 2019 date.

It is our belief that this date will initiate a breakdown price move that may align with external news related or economic related data.  Our research continues to point to the potential for a large global breakdown in equity prices related to some type of near-crisis event.  It could be related to something within the US or outside the US – but either way, we slice it, August 19 looks to be the date we need to focus on.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed and used to chase returns, risk and opportunity and may continue to be deployed more efficiently going forward. 

Read Part I of this series here: https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/...

The recent news that the global central banks may begin a new round of stimulus and easing got us thinking – “what next?”.  Over the past 10 to 20+ years, global central banks have attempted to prompt an economic recovery that seems to slip past economic planners and we believe that is because core functions of the global economy are weaker than many expect.  We’re going to try to explore some of these factors and prepare traders for what may come in the future months.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Stock Market Bears Critically Endangered / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Ricky_Wen

The second week of August played out to the extreme levels accordingly as the market found the temporary bottom at 2775 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), at around the macro 200 day moving average. This level also acted as a higher low relative to the March/June 2019 bottom. Then, the bulls' counterattack against the bears was life threatening as price action retraced 61.8% of the entire 3029.5-2775.75 range and wrapped up the week around the highs in the 2920s.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 12, 2019

More Stock Market Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  We have started a correction of intermediate nature.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, August 12, 2019

I Told You The Stock Market Will Get Wild - Prepare To Be Whipsawed Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

The Fed. The China trade deal. The House of Representatives impeachment proceedings. The Iranian aggression. North Korea firing missiles. Slowing growth in the world economy. As you can see, there are many issues worrying investors today. And, as the market moves up and down through these large gyrations these last two weeks, one excuse is paraded out after another.

When the market drops, it is supposedly because of “fears about the trade deal.” When the market rallies, I see headlines stating “the market rallies on lowered trade fears.” Sadly, this is the best the media and pundits can do. They really have no clue what is happening to the market.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, August 11, 2019

Is the Stock Market Making a V-shaped Recovery? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The U.S. stock market continues to rally. V-shaped rallies are uncommon, but not impossible. Today’s headlines:

  1. V-shaped bounce
  2. Volatility is falling
  3. % of stocks above their 50 dma is rising
  4. AAII sentiment crashed
  5. NAAIM sentiment crashed
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, August 10, 2019

Market’s flight-to-safety: Should You Buy Stocks Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market and bond yields recovered today from an early morning decline. Meanwhile, financial markets have exhibited some extreme flight-to-quality over the past few days. Today’s headlines:

  1. Lots of gaps
  2. Put/Call ratio remains high
  3. Flight to quality: part 1
  4. Flight to quality: part 2
  5. Similarities between today and 2016
  6. Bullish Percent falling to a new low
  7. Gold spiked (again)
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 06, 2019

Where's the Stock Market bottom? Is this IT? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Last Friday, August 2, 2019, we posted an article suggesting this current downside move in the US stock market may be setting up a “washout low” price rotation and we suggested all traders be very cautious over the weekend.  Obviously, with the US major indexes down -2 to -3% right now on extended selling after the Asian/Chinese stock market and currencies collapsed overnight, one has to ask the question “is this IT?  The big collapse everyone has been waiting for?”

Our researchers believe this is the precursor to the move that everyone has been waiting for.  This move in the markets sets up a potential for a bigger collapse and we strongly believe this is a washout rotational low that is setting up – very similar to what happened in October 2018 when the US Fed initiated a downside price rotation in the markets.  Time will tell if we are correct or not, but we believe the August 19, 2019 peak/breakdown date that we've been predicting is still a valid target date and this current news sets up a price pattern that may result in an incredible future price rotation for skilled technical traders.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, August 06, 2019

Stock Market Setting Up for Dead-Cat Bounce or Liquidation Event? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Ricky_Wen

The last week of July/first week of August was quite interesting as volatility is finally back. The bears got their resurrection by closing below the ongoing "sh*t hits the fan level" at 2955 on Thursday August 1. Essentially, active traders and investors had to de-risk and go into more defensive positions. The risk-off scenario continues with the price action confirmation below both the key trending daily 8/20EMAs and also the 2955 level. Obviously, a lot of growth stocks and higher beta names got hit hard and the weakness will continue until stabilization occurs.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, August 05, 2019

Stock Market Intermediate Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  We have started a correction of intermediate nature.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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