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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Markets 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Stock Market Counter-trend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started.  Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Will Stock Market “Sell in May, Go Away” Lead to a Correction… or a Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Graham_Summers

The markets are now within spitting distance of a top.

Our target for the bounce is anywhere in the red box… stocks will likely enter that range today as Wall Street engages in its usual options expiration games. The perfect top would be a backtest of the former rally’s trendline (red line), but in investing things are rarely perfect.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 19, 2019

US vs. Global Stocks Sector Rotation – What Next? Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, have been pouring over the charts and data to identify what is likely to happen over the next 60+ days in terms of global stock market volatility vs. the US stock market expectations.  Recently, we posted a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system on the Transportation Index (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/markets-rally-hard-is-the-volatility-move-over/).  This research suggests we are still going to experience increased price volatility over the next 30 to 60+ days and that price rotation may become somewhat of a normal expectation throughout the rest of 2019.

We believe the key to understanding price volatility over the next 30+ days lies in understanding the potential causes of uncertainty and capital shifts that are taking place around the globe.

Next week, On May 23~26, 2019, the European Elections take place (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/european-elections-2019-uk-vote-date-results/).  This voting encompasses all 26 EU nations where all 753 European Parliament seats may come into question.  The biggest issues are BREXIT and continue EU leadership and economic opportunities for members.  The contentious pre and post-election rancor could drive wild price swings in the global markets over the next 10+ days.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 May Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 17, 2019

Stock Markets Rally Hard – Is The Volatility Move Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Many traders are watching the recent 3-day rally thinking “this is the end of the downside price move” and targeting new entry positions for the eventual upside price breakout.  We’re here to warn you that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting we could see more volatility over the next 45+ days before a price breakout sets up.

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is something we like to keep away from public view for the most part.  It is not something we share with the public often because it tends to show quite a bit of information about the future to skilled eyes.  Today, you are going to get a glimpse of the ADL system on Weekly and Monthly TRAN charts to help you understand what to expect over the next 45+ days.

The ADL predictive modeling system is capable of learning from past price action and modeling “price DNA markers” based on a custom inference engine we created for this utility.  That means it is capable of learning from any chart, any interval, any price data and any type of price activity while mapping the price data, technical data and corresponding future price activity into what we call and DNA price chain.  After that mapping process is complete, we are able to ask it to show us what it has found and how current price bars align with the DNA mapping to show us what is likely for the future.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Is Someone Secretly Smashing the Stock Market at Night? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market has been rallying throughout the day and selling off at night throughout the recent stock market decline. Is this the sign of something more sinister that’s going on in the stock market. Meanwhile, interest rates are falling.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Stock Market Trend Forecast 2019 Current State - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My in-depth analysis first made avilable to patrons who support my work on the of 1st March 2019 Stock Market Trend Forecast March to September 2019 concluded in the trend forecast for the Dow to achieve at least 28,000 by Mid September 2019.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Strong Stock Market Rally Expected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

The stock market fell in capitulation on Monday, a ‘c’ of “z” type wave that got everyone beared-up. Monday was the 16 TD low and could be the 20 week low as well (94 trading days of the 100 trading day low 15 trading days). The ten week went 49/50 trading days in early March, which is normal.  As of Monday we saw 44/45 trading days, which could complete a 10/20 week low pattern (at least 2 ten week patterns).

The Dow 30 looks to have made a possible xyz type of B wave bull flag Monday (at least it could be viewed that way by traders). The Dow topped on April 23rd where the SPX topped on May 1, 6 trading days later, making a “b” wave for the Dow, but an irregular “y” wave top for the SPX.  It is possible from this configuration that we could see a strong wave of buying into May 21st and then a hard drop into June 5th (110 trading days and 16 trading days from May 13th).

So, we are not out of the woods just yet.  My preferred count is a strong rally into early July from May 13th then down into late Sept/early October.  The normal 4-year cycle has the July top late in the month or even in early August.  For this to happen, we need another big drop like Jan-Feb 2018 from May 21-June 5 to finish Wave B. The reason is, C would = A in time in price.  This is called the Equality of Waves Principle.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

US China Trade Issues Will Drive Market Trends – PART II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In PART I of this report we talked about and showed you the charts of the Hang Seng and DAX index charts and what is likely to unfold. In today’s report here we touch on the US markets. As we’ve suggested within our earlier research posts this year, US election cycles tend to prompt massive price rotations when the election cycles are intense.  For example, the 2000 election of George W. Bush prompted a very mild price rotation in 1999~2000.  This was likely because the transition from Clinton to Bush II was not overly contentious.  The 2008 election of Barrack Obama was a moderately contested election cycle and happened at the time of the biggest credit market collapse in modern history – thus, the markets were well on their way lower 12+ months before the elections.  The 2012 election cycle showed moderate price rotation as it was a highly contested election event in the US.  The 2015-16 election event was highly contested as well and the price rotation near this time appears longer and deeper than the 2012 event.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market S&P 500 Negative Expectations Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks were gaining on Friday following a lower opening of the trading session and the morning sell-off. The S&P 500 index extended its downtrend before bouncing off and closing 0.4% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just correction within a downtrend?

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.4% on Friday, after bouncing off their new lows as investors’ sentiment improved despite an ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 index retraced the whole of its April’s advance. It currently trades 2.4% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on Friday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at 2,890-2,900, marked by the previous support level. The resistance level is also at 2,920. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,860-2,865. The support level is also at around 2,835-2,850, marked by April the 1st daily gap up of 2,836.03-2,848.63.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

Stock Market Anticipated Correction Starts On Cue! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The anticipated intermediate term correction has started.  Can’t tell yet, if it’s a C-wave or something less. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers.  If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at ajg@cybertrails.com 

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Stock-Markets

Monday, May 13, 2019

How Chinese Trade Issues Will Drive Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It is becoming evident that the US/Chinese trade issues are going to become a point of contention for the markets going forward.  We’ve been review as much news as possible in an attempt to build a consensus for the future of the US markets and global markets.  As of last week, it appears any potential trade deal with China has reset back to square one.  The news we are reading suggests that China wants to reset their commitments with the US, remove all tariffs and wants the US to commit to buying certain levels of Chinese goods in the future.  Additionally, China has yet to commit to stopping the IP/Technology theft from US companies – which is a very big contention for the US.

This suggests the past 6+ months of trade talks have completely broken down and that this trade issue will likely become a market driver over the next 12+ months.  The global markets had anticipated a deal to be reached by the end of March 2019.  At that time, Trump announced that he was extending talks with China without installing any new tariffs.  The intent was to show commitment with China to reach a deal at that time – quickly.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 10, 2019

Stock Market US China Trade War Panic! Trend Forecast May 2019 Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just as the mainstream media had gotten used to the stock market rallying towards new all time highs into the end of April. Suddenly, out of the blue TRADE WAR PANIC hits the markets and apparently is responsible for the ongoing downturn in the US and world general stock market indices. This illustrates the way the mainstream media tends to work where the big news story of the day is used to explain the direction of a market, with the same news usually spinned as an explanation for either when the market goes up or down! And Mays big news story to explain the downswing is the latest saga in the US / China trade war, namely increased tariffs from 10% to 25% to kick on $200 billion of Chinese goods today (Friday 10th May) triggered by China trying to pull a fast one on the US by backtracking on earlier promises, which illustrates that NO ONE can trust what China says, not even the worlds Super Power!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, May 10, 2019

Stock Market Shake-Out Continues – Where Is The Bottom? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Smart traders are already asking themselves “where is the bottom for this move”.  They’ve likely been through these types of rotations in market price before and understand the fundamentals of the US economy are strong enough to support further upside price activity in the near future.  The current US/China trade worries could result in a pricing disruption of 4 to 8%, seen as rotation, yet the US Fed is continuing to leave rates unchanged and most US economic numbers are still posting strong levels.

So, smart traders want to know where the bottom in the market is likely to be found and when they should start to accumulate new long positions – which is understandable.  We’re here to help.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is one of the unique modeling tools we use to hone into any market move.  The reason for this is because it shows us so much data that we can “read into” our analysis/research.  The other reason is that it is an “adaptive learning” model – which means it continues to learn from price data and adapt its analysis of that data.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 09, 2019

S&P 500 3000 First and Then…? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Brad_Gudgeon

When I last wrote on April 26th, I was looking for a move above 2960. We tagged 2954 on May 1 and then pulled back to 2862 on May 7th. The SPX fell into a rising channel formation and declined to go below 2860, which means to me we have one more rally left before we see a more significant decline later in May and early June.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, May 09, 2019

May 10th 2019 - A Big Day for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: readtheticker

This Friday (May 10th 2019) TRUMPs red line on the China trade talk will move stocks. Will trends break?

readtheticker.com correlation Period Scan tool suggest it will be either OutPut1 or OutPut2. Of course correlation is not causation, but a equity market trend of 10 years may soon find its end.

95% correlation scans are always interesting.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

US Stock Markets Could Rally Beyond Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Late Sunday afternoon, President Trump surprised the global markets with the announcement of increased trade tariffs with China relating to the ongoing trade negotiations and delayed trade talks between the two global superpowers. The global markets reacted immediately upon the open Sunday night (Asian open). The VIX short position puts quite a bit of professional traders at risk of big losses today while those of us that were prepared for an increase in volatility and price rotation is poised for some incredible opportunities.

The US stock market is set up for a price move that will likely make many people very wealthy while frustrating many others over the next few months.  We’ve recently posted many articles regarding the 2020 US Presidential election cycle and the fear cycle that comes from these major political events.  In November 2016, we remember watching Gold rally $60 early in the election night, then fall $100 as news began reporting the surprise winner.  There is so much capital, and future capital expectations that ride on these election cycles – it can actually drive the markets in one direction or another.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

When Will the Stock Market’s Rally Stop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market managed to squeak out some additional gains this week, and the S&P is now up 15 of the past 19 weeks. A lot of traders are probably wondering “when will the stock market’s rally end?”

The economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:

  1. The stock market’s long term risk:reward is no longer bullish.
  2. The medium term direction (e.g. next 6-12 months) has a bullish lean.
  3. The stock market’s short term leans bearish
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

Stock Market Failed Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend Final long-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend –  The trend which started at 2346 could be close to making a final high (as a B-wave?) before another significant correction begins.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends 

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, May 05, 2019

When the Uber-Wealthy Bash the Wealth Gap, It's Time to Worry / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: EWI

By Murray Gunn

Multi-billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently published a 7500-word call to reform American capitalism. Noting that the nation's wealth gap is the "highest since the 1930s," Dalio wrote that rather than distributing income equally, capitalism is "producing self-reinforcing spirals up for the haves and down for the have-nots" which "pose existential threats to the United States," and amount to a "national emergency."

Parts of Dalio's message sound eerily close to another article authored by another uber-successful capitalist, John J. Raskob. In his piece "Everybody Aught to Be Rich," Raskob writes:

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