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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Stock Market volitility for April but should end the year Strongly Higher / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Adam_Oliensis

Dear Speculators,

We've been studying the 4-year cycle in the stock market for quite some time here. And over the past couple of weeks we've been entertaining two different hypotheses. Our working assumption had been that the 4-yr cycle low came before it was scheduled to in '06, forming in July and launching the new '06 - '10 cycle with the July-February rally from the 1220s up to the 1460 area.

This first chart plots the market's percentage gain off the July low (black line) against the median 4-year cycle performance since 1962 (blue line) as well as against the average performance (red line). The grey lines measure 1 standard deviation from the median. And the horizontal axis measures the number of trading days from the launch of the new cycle; this particular chart plots only the first 2 years of the cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 31st March 2007 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Next week as well as the entire month of April have had a very positive seasonal bias.

Short Term : Last week new lows on the NASDAQ peaked at 56 on Thursday well below the 159 seen on March 5. The high for the NYSE was 32 on Wednesday also well below the 106 reported on March 5.

The chart below covers the past year showing the OTC in orange and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in black. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing new lows move the indicator downward (up is good).

The upward movement of OTC NL was arrested on Thursday casting some suspicion on rally off the March lows.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Will the Sub-Prime Mortgages Implosion Meltdown the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Subprime Mortgage Risks

By: Clif_Droke

Most of the focus among investors and non-investors alike recently has been the sub-prime mortgage “implosion” and its possible impact on the stock markets and the economy.  Therefore I'm dedicating most of tonight's report to an analysis of this special situation.

Since I'm not an expert in this particular area, the best analysis I can offer other than anecdotal evidence based on personal observation is to share with you my own collection of opinions from those whose expertise and analysis of similar situations in the past has proven correct in a vast majority of cases.  In other words, we're going to see what some of the best in the business have to say on this subject.  Then we'll take the analysis once step further and turn to the ultimate barometer of business/economic conditions, namely the stock market, and see what Mr. Market itself has to say.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Q4 Corporate Profits Sink - Thank Goodness For Wall St / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The important new information in the Commerce Department's third guess at last year's fourthquarter GDP was its first guess at the same quarter's corporate profits. Commerce guessed low. Before-tax profits adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption turned negative sequentially, submerging 0.30% (not annualized) in Q4:2006. In fact, after a Q1:2006 surge of 12.60%, corporate profit growth was downright anemic in the last three quarters of 2006, as was real GDP growth (see Chart 1 below).

With volume growth slowing and labor costs rising, it is no wonder that profits growth is now struggling. It is doubtful things will turn around soon unless Circuit City's plan to effectively cut the salaries of many of its employees becomes the norm.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

China to Take Down World Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Christopher_Laird

Guys,

We are looking right now at the following situation. China is about to drop the world markets in stemming their bubbles – stocks and real estate and manufacturing. I notified PS subscribers that China is going to prick the world stock bubbles – as the emerging manufacturing giant, just like the USA did in the 1929/30’s.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The Shanghai Stock Market Bubble and the "Euro/Yen" Tug-of-War / Stock-Markets / Yen Carry Trade

By: Gary_Dorsch

"Free markets for Free men", was a slogan etched on the floor jackets of several traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the 1980's. But today, the slogan for traders is "Rigged markets for Central bankers," who try to move currency and stock markets with their control of the money spigots and timely "jawboning" to the media outlets, when markets become unruly. Today, trading in currencies, precious metals, and stock market indexes has turned into a game of central bank watching.

Right now, two of the most important pieces of the global market jig-saw puzzle are the Shanghai Stock Index bubble and the Tug-of-war over the "Euro /yen" carry trade. What happens in Shanghai can have a big influence over China's monetary policy, and is of great interest to commodity traders and Asian stock markets. The upcoming battle over the Euro /yen exchange rate can have a big influence over Japanese monetary policy and stock markets in Europe.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Great Investment Bargains in Japan - How to participate in the coming boom / Stock-Markets / Japanese Stock Market

By: Money_and_Markets

While China is indeed growing like a weed, many of its Asian neighbors are growing almost as rapidly. What's more, the stocks in some of these other countries are trading at lower valuations.

Since I was born with the cheapskate gene, I just love bargains. So today I want to tell you about Japan, a great place to find some of Asia's greatest value stocks.

Let's start with three facts:

Fact #1: Japan boasts the second-largest economy and stock market in the world.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Summary of Financial Markets and Economic Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Summary Forecasts & Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With so many differing opinions on market direction, each supported by good solid analysis, the reader can become lost in which way appears the most probable.

Therefore the following represent the Editor of the Market Oracle, Nadeem Walayat's summary forecasts of the most probable outcomes, as derived by technical analysis and research, much of which are published as articles to this site. New forecasts & comments to exisitng forecasts are added on each new update.

Commodity Markets
Gold

Gold Bull Market set to resume, targeting a rally to initially $847 and then $900 by the end of this year.

25/3/07 - Despite recent rally, gold looking weak in the immediate term, though has plenty of time to fulfill the forecast.

21st Jan 07
$636
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Harness the Power of China’s $1 Trillion! - Gala Edition / Stock-Markets / Investing

By: Money_and_Markets

Martin Weiss - The timing of our second international teleconference this week couldn't have been better.

Every single one of the foreign stock markets we covered has since shaken off its earlier correction ... turned sharply higher ... and blasted off toward new highs.

So I hope you were able to make it and call in at the appointed hour. But if you couldn't, this double-length special issue gives you a second opportunity to get the information in a handy, readable format ...

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 25th March 07 - Testing, 1, 2 . . . 3? / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Dominick

What a week… again! Once more, the boat was extremely tilted to one side and it had to sink. But not the market, this time it was the bears that really took a soaking. Members of TTC and regular readers of this update, though, continued to bank plenty of profits.

Since the markets broke from the top a few weeks ago, I've insisted on two things. The first was that I wasn't going to label the big picture yet. Even though we were fortunate to be among the few, if not the only ones to navigate last year's rally all the way to the top, I didn't like that drop last month at all – at least not as the start of a bear market. It would have been easy to take a bow, and congratulate myself on a job well done, but I'm always looking for the next trade and I said the fast selloff from 1461 opened doors for alternatives that included new highs AND new lows.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 24th Mar 07 / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Mike_Burk

The good news is: Last week new lows evaporated. On the NASDAQ new lows declined on both Thursday and Friday in spite of declines in the NASDAQ composite (OTC). The picture was similar on the NYSE with only 7 new lows recorded on Friday.

Short Term
Martin Zweig's up volume indicator got a lot of publicity in technical circles when it was triggered last week. The indicator was also triggered on March 6, but analysts' were probably too afraid to notice that time.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 23, 2007

Amex Oil Index (XOI) getting set for a possible strong Upside Breakout / Stock-Markets / Oil Companies

By: David_Petch

The chart of the XOI is getting more and more interesting each week. The XOI has shot up the past few days and is set to break out of an apparent wedge structure; should it break to the upside then the next impulsive move is underway. The Bollinger bands are still contracting, indicating a contraction in volatility (sorry, not revealing much information in their current pattern).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 23, 2007

Stock Market Bounce due to Fed Liquidity / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets

By: Marty_Chenard

The Fed pumped in a ton of liquidity that is supporting the market's up movement. Sometime next week, the S&P 500 (and the other indexes) will meet resistance when they close their gaps as seen on the chart below.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 23, 2007

Financial Markets Manipulation - The Rise of the Bernanke Put Option? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson - Did you see that monster rally on Wednesday afternoon? The one that sent the Dow up more than 150 points in the blink of an eye? If you're wondering what caused it, I have an answer for you …

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke is trying out the “Greenspan put!”

Alan Greenspan, our last Fed Chairman, was notorious for solving market crises by lowering interest rates. In fact, the Wall Street crowd even dreamed up a nickname for this — the Greenspan put.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Stock market and natural resources recovery continues / Stock-Markets / Metals & Mining

By: Clif_Droke

The market indicated its super-oversold condition to us soon after the Feb. 27 sell-off based on volume and put/call ratio indications. The bottom has since been confirmed and Wednesday witnessed the big rally day everyone has been waiting for. The market rewarded our patience on Wednesday by rallying 24 points, or 1.71%, as measured by the S&P 500 index (SPX).

As of Wednesday the number of stocks making new 52-week highs on the NYSE was 239 versus only 19 new lows. The number of new lows over the past week has held consistently below 40, a sign that internal selling pressure is almost non-existent. That's a big positive from a technical standpoint and it proves that the recent damage done by the Feb. 27 panic selling was over-done and bound to be recovered. As of Wednesday we've recovered most of those losses as measured by the SPX.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2007

FTSE 100 and Dow Jones Stock Market Analysis and Outlook / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FTSE last week fell and hit its target of 6000, followed by the anticipated bounced as summarised below. (Article - 13th March 07)

FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 is targeting 6000, there is a strong probability of the FTSE holding 6000 (5990 low). Further downside appears limited in the immediate down swing.

The FTSE continued its rally on Monday to complete the target requirements for the bounce from 6000. I.e. to effectively put in a lower high, and therefore now again targets a trend back to 6000.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2007

Another View on the recent Stock Market Panic / Stock-Markets / US Utilities

By: Roger_Conrad

Speaking engagements are one of the more useful aspects of my job.

This weekend, I'm at the Renaissance Waverly Hotel in Cobb County, Georgia, for the WealthExpo.

I look forward to meeting many readers and hearing of their concerns and queries, and I'll be summing them up in next week's Utility & Income. Utility Forecaster subscribers please note: This issue's Roundup has a brief, between-issues roundup of every Portfolio recommendation.

As the past week's extremely turbulent market events showed yet again, the world's investment markets are increasingly connected.

Events that may seem wholly unconnected on the other side of the globe are increasingly affecting investors everywhere.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2007

Nolte Notes - Financial Markets attempting to make a bottom in the short-term / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Paul_J_Nolte

The issue du jour has been alternating between the sub-prime mortgage “contagion” and China trying to slow their economic growth and by extension the speculation in their markets. Banks, brokerage firms as well as loan companies directly involved in the mortgage business are being affected, however no one is quite sure how pervasive the problem is (or can be) and ultimately the impact upon the consumer and the economy.

Retail sales came in below expectations as weather was cited as a problem (what IS good shopping weather?) and brokerage earnings reports outlined some problems with their sub-prime mortgages – but little else was disclosed. China is a whole separate issue, as their local market has doubled in less than a year and the government has hiked both interest rates (again this weekend) and increased investment requirements for speculation.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 19, 2007

Three Sweeping Events in China's Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Money_and_Markets

Suddenly, just in the past week, China has jumped ahead with three sweeping reforms to solidify its growth, bolster its financial markets, and more rapidly transform itself into a 21st century market economy.

Each step, when taken separately, is fuel for more growth. All three, when combined, are electrifying.

Whether or not these reforms bring more political freedom to China remains to be seen. But they're likely to set off a chain reaction of further legal changes, and ultimately, an end to nearly all vestiges of communism in China's economy.

Reform #1 Chinese National Legislature Passes New Property Law

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, Bonds, Currencies and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets

By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo

Economy - The Labor Department reported a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index, which followed on the heels of a 0.2% increase in January. Core prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2%, and 2.7% from one year ago. Overall prices are up 2.4% from last year.

Food prices comprise about 20% of the CPI. They increased 0.8%, the most since April 2005, after a 0.7% rise in January.

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