Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, February 01, 2012
Stock Market Down but Post a Great January / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short. The S&P 500 popped at the open, but then fell to a midday low, off about half a percent, before making a steady comeback. The closing hour played touch-and-go with break even, with the finally tally being a fractional loss of 0.05% for the day. That’s the fourth consecutive finish in the red. But the month of January saw a gain of 4.36%. To put that into context, that’s the 11th best January since the inception of the S&P 500, in March 1957. The index is 3.76% below its interim high at the end of April 2011.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Key Intermarket Forex Pairs and Bond Market Charts Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Yesterday saw a major short squeeze on S&P500 as wrenched out the shorts who got in short on the market too early. There is a time to short and the trader who can learn the art of timing has mastered it. Having said that, not even 1% can consistently time the market over a 200 day trading period.
This is part of the premium update which we share with our subscribers on a daily basis. Part of it is shared here. We will look at key intermarket forex pairs and bond market charts to understand price action. We will also look at an important macro data point released yesterday.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
The Danger of Having a Weak Economy with a Strong Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
For the past two to three decades, there has been a radical structural transformation of the American economy from being a production economy to a service economy with consumer driving 60% of its GDP. Due to the so called Globalization, much of America’s manufacturing facilities have been transferred overseas and hence with its jobs as well. Since the beginning of the 21st century America has lost more than 50,000 manufacturing facilities either due to uncompetitive closure or being shifted overseas. As a result more than 5 million jobs have been lost along the way.
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Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent? No / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Traders use pattern recognition for making trading decisions. We have an interesting situation developing in the American stock markets that is worth knowing about. Cyclically it is deja vu all over again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Investing in Pakistan, Fundamental Economic and Markets Outlook for 2012 / Stock-Markets / Pakistan
Executive Summary
If 2011 was the year of living dangerously, then 2012 is likely to be the year of living adventurously for those investors who choose to invest in Pakistan. Our view on Pakistan’s investment outlook remains positive and is driven by the following key convictions:
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Stock Market Long Term Bull Market Elliott Wave Count / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
I have to be honest that I am grappling with a few possible counts since the March 2009 Bull market commenced in terms of the big picture.
With Elliott Wave Analysis, you have to anticipate, monitor, and then adjust. Most of the time I go with my instinct and then only adjust if it looks like I was way off the tracks. The only time I tend to get way off the tracks is when I read too many opinions, so I’ve shut myself off from reading other’s opinions and below is my gut right now:
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Gold, Euro Rebound Off Lows / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Today's weakness in the Euro/USD (so far) has held important support in the 1.3080/50 area, which represents a former 6-week upside breakout plateau.
As long as EUR/USD respects the integrity of the support zone, the recovery rally off of 1.2620 (Jan 15) will remain intact.
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Financial Markets Jan 2012 Moves Against Popular Expectations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Set against the backdrop of an entire continent breaking up and the gloom of a world wide recession, the financial markets continue to surprise. When my 70 year old uncle who has never traded the financial markets, tell me that the world is going to fall apart cause of the debt on European countries, we know bears dont have a chance in the near future.
What started as a feeble move in 1st week of January has now whip lashed into powerful uptrend on the risk assets with an extraordinary event about to appear on the S&P 500. The 50 DMA is all set to cross the 200 DMA. It has happened more than 12 times since 1990. This is one measure which never lies.
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Will the Stock Market Stay Safe or Get Into Trouble This Week? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
One of the daily research data sets we calculate every night is from a computer run on every stock on the S&P 500 index.
During that analysis, we measure the Strength levels of each stock and do a count of how many had positive strength that day, and how many had negative strength.
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Junior Gold Stocks Rebound from Lows / Stock-Markets / Gold & Silver Stocks
The junior sector had a very difficult year in 2011 but has led the recent recovery (at least statistically) in the precious metals sector. Two of our favorite exchange traded funds, GDXJ and ZJG.to are up 30% and 25% respectively. That exceeds GDX (large caps) which has rebounded 15%. These are significant gains but barely put a dent in the low valuations for the sector. Ratio analysis shows us how undervalued the smaller gold stocks are yet an examination of history shows this is not out of the ordinary at this point in a bull market.
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Gold, Stocks and the Dollar, Arguing with the Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
I figured out early in my career that arguing with the market more often than not ends up costing one money. If you are one of those people who are unable to change your mind, this business will almost certainly chew you up and spit you out. Never has that been more true than today.
Folks, we are in the middle of an ongoing currency war. That is creating investing conditions unlike anything most of us have ever seen before. There's a reason why very few money managers have been able to make any profits over the last year and most of them have lost money. That reason is an ever-changing investing environment.
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Monday, January 30, 2012
Stock Market "January Effect" and the Probabilities for 2012 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The strength in the S&P 500 this month tells more about the performance for the rest of the year than most investors realise. Over the last 40 years, whenever the US market has had a return above 3.75% in January, the S&P 500 finished the year higher. Currently, the index is up 4.44%.
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Are Risk Markets About to Reverse? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
A different tone this week, rather than dwell on the US markets as I regularly do, I thought I would expand on some other ideas we are watching that could help decide the US markets direction.
If you have read my articles for a while you will note I make reference to some forex pairs, which I consider to be vital clues on the direction to where stocks go.
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Stock Market Pullback Likely This Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
US markets made a new uptrend high on thursday, but ended the week mixed. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +1.05%. Foreign markets were higher: with Asia +1.5%, Europe +0.7% and the DJ World index +1.2%. Economic reports were quite mixed with negatives outpacing positives 6 to 5. On the downtick: pending/new homes sales, durable goods, leading indicators, the M1 multiplier, and weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: FHFA housing prices, consumer sentiment, the monetary base, the WLEI and the GDP. Next week we will get reports on Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, ISM and nonfarm Payrolls.
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Stock Market Friday Fractionally Down Day, Fractionally Up Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short. With a somewhat lower than consensus Q4 GDP, the S&P 500 sagged at the open and wallowed in shallow red through most of the day. A modest afternoon rally gave hope of a positive finish, and the index did make it into the green in the final 30 minutes. But a selloff near the close gave Friday a fractional loss of 0.16%. For the week the index gained a meager 0.07%. The index has a year-to-date gain of 4.67%. It is 3.47% below its interim high at the end of April 2011.
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Sunday, January 29, 2012
Financial Markets 2012, When Leverage Fails / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
The saga continues as we head into 2012. That saga is the demise of Ponzi finance and an ASSET-backed economic model in the developed world. We do not know whether the currency and financial system extinction event will occur this year or ten years from now. The questions we hope to answer in this 2012 economic analysis regard only the unfolding of short to intermediate-term ups and downs in economies, financial systems and societies. We will be covering different sectors of the 2012 economy (stocks, bonds, precious metals, commodities, real estate, etc.) over the next several editions of TedBits; this is part one -- a global-macro Austrian overview, the BIG PICTURE so to speak. Don't miss future issues; subscriptions to TedBits are FREE at www.traderview.com/subscribe/
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Saturday, January 28, 2012
Stock Market Glass Ceiling Revealed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Following up on our most recent post "Glass Ceiling Bullish or Bearish," today, we unveil the two markets illustrated in that feature.
Below, we display the two phantom price charts presented for side-by-side comparison. We had mentioned that both were popular indices, and hinted that we had rendered one of the charts with monthly closes and the other using a chart of daily closes.
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Saturday, January 28, 2012
Stock Market Let’s Not Get Too Optimistic! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In investing much is said about the folly of following the crowd.It’s voiced in age-old maxims like “The market will do whatever it must to fool the majority”, and Warren Buffett’s advice to “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”.
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Friday, January 27, 2012
Stocks Thump Yields as Economic Growth Looks On / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
It is not a new development for US GDP growth to be largely driven by a build- up inventories (+1.9% contribution is highest since Q1 2010) in contrast to weak contribution from real final sales (+0.80% is lowest since Q1 2011). If this is a signal to future growth prospects, then how will the ultra low yields-driven stock go on?
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Friday, January 27, 2012
Great Green Opportunities from Dangerous Q.E. / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
“Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the eight central bank balance sheets were less than 15% the size of world stock markets and falling. In the immediate aftermath of Lehman Brothers’ failure, these eight central bank balances swelled to 37% the capitalization of the world stock market. But keep in mind that the late 2008/early 2009 peak was due to collapsing stock market values combines with balance sheet expansion via ‘lender of last resort’ loans.
“Recently, the eight central banks balance sheets have spiked to 33% of world stock market capitalization. This has come about not by lender of last resort loans, but rather by QE expansion…
“Central banks are ruling markets to a degree this generation has not seen. Collectively they are printing money to a degree never seen in human history.”
Bianco Research 01/25/2012
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