Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Four Signs of a Short-Term Drop in Stocks

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Feb 13, 2012 - 02:27 AM GMT

By: DailyWealth

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJeff Clark writes: The stock market is showing multiple signs of a short-term top.

That doesn't mean stocks have to go down right away. Topping is a process – not a one-day event.



We saw great examples of this in 2010 and 2011. In both years, the market rallied through January and hit "overbought" levels on a number of technical indicators that I follow.

Every time the market looked like it was ready to drop, buyers stepped in and pumped stock prices higher. I'm seeing the same thing today...

Back in 2010 and 2011, we didn't get huge rallies – just a chronic "bid" that pushed stocks up a little bit every day. The natural ebb and flow of the market disappeared. Rather than stocks correcting modestly and working off the overbought conditions, stocks had a one-way ticket higher.

Corrections help to relieve overbought conditions and establish "support levels" for stock prices. When the market goes too far without a pullback, it doesn't establish a higher support level. So when stocks finally start to decline – and they always do at some point – the selloffs can wipe out nearly all the previous rally's gains.

The "flash crash" in 2010 wiped out several months of gains in one day. And all of last January and February's gains disappeared two weeks into March.

Right now, there is no ebb and flow to the market. It's only a one-way move higher. There's no telling for sure when it will end. Just know that it will end. And when it does, stocks could drop fast.

Let me show you what I'm talking about... Here's a chart of the Volatility Index...


The "VIX," as it's called, is the most popular gauge of market volatility and investor fear... Calm periods, when the VIX is low and the stock market is moving steadily higher, are always interrupted by periods of wrenching volatility and falling stock prices... That's just the way the world works.

Last year, the S&P 500 lost 17% in three weeks as the VIX jumped from under 17 to over 47. We could easily see the same thing happen here in 2012.

Here's another indicator flashing a warning sign...


This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs). It's a momentum indicator that helps determine overbought and oversold conditions.

Typically, stocks are overbought when this chart rallies above 70. They're oversold when it drops below 30. As of late this week, more than 86% of the S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-DMA. That's about as high as it gets before some sort of selling pressure hits the market.

Add to this the investor sentiment survey (a contrary indicator) showing individual investors are as bullish as they have been in years... and the Commitment of Traders report showing commercial traders (aka the "smart money") are net short the largest number of S&P 500 futures contracts in five years... and you have a market that is poised for at least a short-term correction.

If stocks follow the same script as they did in 2010 and 2011, we should be on alert for a correction that brings the S&P 500 back down to about where it started the year. That would be a decline of about 6%.

For long-term investors, there's no reason to panic and abandon the market. But sophisticated traders should be on the lookout for opportunities to go short.

And once the correction comes and relieves the overbought condition of the market, it'll help set the stage for a late-spring rally. And I'll be looking for new bullish bets.

Good trading,

Jeff Clark

Editor's note: Jeff recently recommended shorting one sector in particular that's due to break down. He believes his S&A Short Report readers could make 140% on this trade. If you'd like to hedge recent gains with a few short bets, Jeff is ready with lots of weak stocks waiting to break down... To access Jeff's favorite short play today, consider a subscription to the S&A Short Report. Click here to learn more.

http://www.dailywealth.com

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2011 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in