Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Stock Market Sitting on the Precipice / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX is sitting at Short-term support at the close. My model suggests a very powerful move is in the offing, in which the next target may be as low as mid-Cycle support at 1373.79 before the next bounce back, possibly to the 50-day moving average at 1423.77. Once 1373.79 is crossed the second time, the crash may be underway. The Broadening Wedge at 1320.00 may only enhance the decline, since most Broadening Wedges don’t call for a bounce, while the Orthodox Broadening Tops do.

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

Financial Crash, Economic Crash, We Have Been Warned! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: DeviantInvestor

Bernanke gave his “helicopter” speech in which he made reference to a “helicopter drop of money.” But the critical point in his speech was:

“U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in term of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services.”

Sunday, October 07, 2012

Why You Should Be VERY Afraid of Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Graham_Summers

For the last 80 years or so, financial theory has held that inflation and deflation were mutually exclusive events. We’ve now seen that idea go up in smoke as deflation affects home prices and incomes in the US at the very same time that we experience inflation in energy and food prices courtesy of the Fed’s insane money printing.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Surmounting Budgetary Crystal Meth and the Ring of Fire / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: DeviantInvestor

“…when it comes to debt and to the prospects for future debt, the U.S. is not a ‘clean dirty shirt.’  The U.S., in fact, is a serial offender, an addict whose habit extends beyond weed or cocaine and who frequently pleasures itself with budgetary crystal meth….

“The International Monetary Fund, the Congressional Budget Office and the Bank of International Settlements compute a ‘fiscal gap’, which is a deficit that must be closed either with spending cuts, tax hikes or a combinations of both which keeps a country’s debt/GDP ratio under control…

Saturday, October 06, 2012

No Stock Market Breakout Here..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Jack_Steiman

The market has made a nice move off the bottom this past week, but when it ran into the highs that had thrown a gap lower and a black candle preceding that, it failed. It could not get through that gap. It could not get above that recent black candle at the top, and thus, be ready for more chop to drive you all crazy. And why not? This is how you get folks to feel like they no longer want to be part of the game. Mission accomplished by the big money. Take it down. Tease everyone on the way up. Pull the carpet out once again. Get folks frustrated. And on and on the game goes.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Stock Market Seasonality Revisited! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Sy_Harding

Twice a year, in April and October, I remind you of the market’s remarkable seasonality, the popular version of which is known as ‘Sell in May and Go Away’. It calls for getting out of the market on May 1st each year and back in on November 1st.

As with most investment strategies, most investors have only short-term thoughts regarding it. If it worked out the previous year or two, “Well just maybe I’ll consider it for next year.” And if it didn’t work out the previous year then clearly it’s either just a silly theory, or a strategy that may have worked in the past but the pattern has obviously come to an end.

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Once In A Lifetime Cracker Jack Investment Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Eelco_Lodewijks

Conclusion

Looking at a brief list (<1 page) of looming crises coupled with the best investment strategy for each, I come to this even shorter conclusion.  The common Denominator is going long Gold and Silver.  Secondary Strategies would be shorting a) The Dollar, b) Bond Markets and c) Mega Banks (could be bailed out?) in that order. 

Saturday, October 06, 2012

Global Economic and Political Evaluation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Eelco_Lodewijks

WHAT WE KNOW – AND WHAT IT TELLS US

This is not an exhaustive list, but enough to make you sit up and think.

This is a Global Evaluation and South Africa may be less badly affected, but, when the rest of the world catches a cold, South Africa catches Double Pneumonia.

Friday, October 05, 2012

U.S. Dollar, Bonds, Gold, Commodities, and Stocks October Trend Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past year we have had some really interesting things unfold in the market. Investing or even swing trading has been much more difficult because of all the wild economic data and daily headline news from all over the globe causing strong surges or sell offs almost every week.

For a while there you could not hold a position for more than a week without some type of news event moving the market enough to either push you deep in the money or get stopped out for a loss. This has unfortunately caused a lot of individuals to give up on trading which is not a good sign for the financial market as a whole.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Financial Fukushima: US Big Bank Derivative Bets Double in Six Years To $236 Trillion / Stock-Markets / Derivatives

By: Jesse

Well, the derivatives market is like Fukushima Daiichi before it failed and melted down, when the utility company and the Japanese government were blithely assuring themselves and everyone else that nothing could go wrong. Just as Greenspan and other very important people said nothing could go wrong with the US housing market and the wholesale collateralization of debt. Nothing to see here, move along.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Stock Markets Continue to Leveitate as Money Printing Trumps Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

Stock markets around the world continue to levitate despite the fact that the fundamentals behind the global economy continue to deteriorate.

U.S. second quarter GDP was significantly revised downward last week from the previously reported 1.7%, to just 1.3%. The paltry 1.3% reading on GDP followed a first quarter print that was already an anemic 2%. Also reported last week was the worsening state of consumer’s income. Their take home pay (after taxes and inflation are considered) dropped 0.3% in August, as their savings rate fell to just 3.7%, from 4.1% during the prior month. Another worrisome report showed manufacturing activity in the Chicago region contracted for the first time in three years in the month of September, according to the MNI Chicago Report released on Friday.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Investment Poker: Nightmare in the Danger Zone / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: DeviantInvestor

You just took $500,000 (half your net worth) and sat down at a no-limit Texas Hold ‘em game in the Wall Street Casino. You are anxious but feel confident, based on good intelligence and planning. Then you look at the other players at the table:

•A prominent Washington D. C. lobbyist.

•A TBTF (Too Big To Fail) banker with deep political connections.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Stock Sentiment Improving.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Jack_Steiman

It does get boring when you have to deal with a market that whipsaws about on a daily basis. But the real question is what is the message that this whipsaw is representing. Some would interpret this as bearish behavior, while others would say they just can't figure it out. The masses will always turn negative when markets stop moving higher on a regular basis, especially when you consider the news that sits out there every day of our lives. We hear so much about the economic turmoil throughout the world. That starts to get engrained in our brains, thus, when markets correct, it feels like it must be something other than a healthy pullback to unwind things.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Nouriel Roubini Says Too Big To Fail Banks Are Worse Than Before / Stock-Markets / Banksters

By: Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, sat down with Tom Keene and Sara Eisen on "Bloomberg Surveillance" this morning to talk the global economy and U.S. politics. Roubini said that too big to fail banks are "worse than before" and the only solution is for them to "break up."

Bremmer said that if Obama wins the election, it is "not primarily because Romney is a horrible candidate," but because of three people: John Roberts, Angela Merkel and Ben Bernanke.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Investors Fight the Inflation Boogeyman, Protect Your Wealth from Fed Money Printing / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Axel_Merk

Investors are concerned about inflation. But how can investors attempt to inflation-proof their portfolios? Buy TIPS? Short Treasury bonds? Stocks? Real Estate? Commodities? Gold? Currencies? Or should investors regard those warnings about inflation as fear mongering?

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Implications of November's U.S. Presidential Election on Private Equity / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012

By: Bloomberg

Steve Schwarzman, Chairman and CEO of Blackstone, sat down with Bloomberg News' Jason Kelly and said that election scrutiny of private equity may pay off: "There's a point of view that these business have performed very well for institutions...Ironically, it gave the public and other people a chance to think through these arguments."

Schwarzman also said, "We have not seen any of the blow back that you might expect."

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Stock Market Panic Scenario Developing / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The Scenario that I discussed last night is playing out.  Remember, this formation is comprised of zigzags, or a-b-c waves.  This morning’s pop is a B wave.  We will have confirmation of that once SPX declines below 1440.98. 

This decline will be the wake-up call, but many will fall back asleep when a strong 61.8% retracement from the 50-day moving average (1413.99) back to mid-cycle resistance at 1450.45 follows. 

Tuesday, October 02, 2012

Kondratieff, Solar Cycles and Markets / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis

By: John_Hampson

Kondratieff was a Russian economist who argued that there was a long sine wave cycle in the economy lasting around 60 years broken down into 4 seasons each lasting around 15 years. There proposed reason for the cycle is…. other cycles. In other words, cycles of demographics, credit cycles, capital investment cycles and more, generate these long repetitions over time. Clearly that’s slightly unsatisfactory, unless we can explain the cycles of the source phenomena. Today, I am going to argue that Kondratieff cycling actually reflects solar cycling.

Monday, October 01, 2012

Commodity Price Trends as Economic and Stock Market Indicators / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Ian_R_Campbell

Why read: To test the contemporaneous views I expressed four years ago, to observe similarities and differences then and now, and to determine if you agree with my current views.

Monday, October 01, 2012

Pakistan Investing, Fundamental Economic and Markets Outlook / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012

By: Bilal_Khan

In this document we highlight our views on the key investor debates across the macro-economy, FX, fixed income, equities, precious metals and provide our views on asset allocation.

• Economics: Recent improved relations with the US and improved liquidity from the unlocking of USD flows has resulted in a degree of optimism about the future. Will this optimism last given the macro challenges?