Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, September 20, 2012
The Murky World of India’s Commodity Futures Markets, Excessive Speculation and Market Manipulation / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
Kavaljit Singh writes: The recent guar trading scandal gives a peek into the murky world of Indian commodity futures markets and reveals how commodity exchanges are acting like casinos for speculators, moving away from their avowed objectives of price discovery and price risk management in an efficient and orderly manner.
Guar (Cyamopsis tetragonoloba) is a drought resistant crop grown mainly in Rajasthan and parts of Haryana and Punjab. The sowing season for guar seed begins in July and the crop is ready for harvesting in October. Most guar farmers sell their produce to traders at the farm gate and nearby markets. A part of produce is also kept by farmers for seed, animal feed and fodder purposes.
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
Stock Markets Sucker Punch? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
To be useful, technical analysis of investor behaviour requires a suspension of prejudice; which is an extremely difficult outcome to achieve.
The chart below – of the S&P 500, courtesy stockcharts.com – has given a strong buy signal. At face value, this makes no sense. The world economy is in a mess. How can the world’s largest stock market be giving buy signals?
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
Stock Market Staying Overbought...Fed Protection Is Alive And Well...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
And why not. A friendly Fed sure goes a long way to keeping the bears away from getting too aggressive. You can see how fast they are to cover on any market selling let alone not taking too many new short positions. They know they're fighting an uphill battle, and, seemingly, would rather step aside for now. This does not mean we shoot straight up. Things are getting a bit complacent, more on that later, and that alone over time can cause a strong selling episode for the entire market.
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Thursday, September 20, 2012
U.S. Treasury Debt Powder Kegs and Money Printing Photo Ops / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
The following is a portion of an interview I conducted with Dr. Janice Dorn, as found in the December 2006 issue of The Investor’s Mind: Mindgames. Dr. Dorn has not only traded the futures markets for the past 2 decades, but has coached hundreds of traders in the futures markets. She holds a PhD in neuroanatomy, and is an M.D., certified by the American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology. I am confident you will find these comments even more pertinent today, than when they were originally read in December 2006.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Prepare for Stock Market Crash 2013 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Jonathan Yates writes: The market has surged in recent action, but these gains haven't eradicated the chances of a stock market crash in 2013.
Global markets are up on news that central banks will deliver more stimulus measures, such as QE3 in the United States.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Stock Market Pop and Drop Crash Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
It appears that the SPX (cash) is in an a – Triangle b – c pattern that may lend itself to a pop to at least 1465, or possibly higher. This will give the SPX enough elevation to break through support, which is just beneath the Triangle formation (and the cause of the bottom trendline). I think that 1465.23 is resistance, but there may be an attempt to rise above it. No matter. The decline that follows will then have enough strength to “punch through.”
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Monday, September 17, 2012
Fed QE3 Ecstasy Delays Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The Fed has extended the SPX intermediate uptrend, but for how long?
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Saturday, September 15, 2012
Wild Stock Market Week, QE3 Is Here To Stay...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
A lot of anticipation is the way to explain the week that just passed. There were two major events to come as the week wore on. Apple Inc. (AAPL) was going to introduce the IPhone5 on Wednesday, while everyone, and I mean everyone, tuned into the words from Mr. Bernanke on Thursday about whether he was going to implement a QE3 program. I didn't think there was a chance he would do it, but more on that in a minute.
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Saturday, September 15, 2012
Stock Market The Rally Continues … with Reservations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short. The rally that started with yesterday’s FOMC announcement of an open-ended round of stimulus continued today, at least through the first hour of trading. The markets disregarded the ugly Industrial Production data, preferring instead to emulate the mood of the latest Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which was released at 9:55 AM. But a bit less than 30 minutes later, the S&P 500 hit its intraday high, up 0.99%, and slowly faded to a modest closing gain of 0.40%. Will the QE3 rally continue next week? We’ll see. Meanwhile, the index gained 1.94% for the week, all of it in the aftermath of the Bernanke boost.
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Saturday, September 15, 2012
How Investors Can Protect Themselves in a Politicized Economy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Right on the heels of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, the recent Casey Research Summit in Carlsbad, California—cosponsored by SprottGlobal—focused on a timely theme: "Navigating the Politicized Economy." The somber revelations of the summit contrasted with the buzz of the party conventions. The Gold Report sat down with Louis James, Casey Research's chief metals and mining investment strategist, Rick Rule, founder of Global Resource Investments, and Marin Katusa, Casey Research's chief energy investment strategist, to discuss how investors can position themselves in a politically driven economy.
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Saturday, September 15, 2012
Bernanke Secretly Gives away Sixteen Trillion Dollars / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
In July of 2011, I was one of the first to bring to your attention to the incredible fact that the US Federal Reserve had secretly given away $16 TRILLION dollars;
Read full article... Read full article..."The first ever GAO (Government Accountability Office) audit of the US Federal Reserve was recently carried out due to the Ron Paul/Alan Grayson Amendment to the Dodd-Frank bill passed in 2010. Jim DeMint, a Republican Senator, and Bernie Sanders, an independent Senator, while leading the charge for an audit in the Senate, watered down the original language of house bill (HR1207) so that a complete audit would not be carried out. Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and others, opposed the audit.
Saturday, September 15, 2012
Enough With The Fed’s Transparency Already! / Stock-Markets / Central Banks
When Ben Bernanke became chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2006 he promised a significant change. The Fed would be much more ‘transparent’ in letting markets and the public know more about its inner workings, its concerns, its internal debates, its potential decisions. He has certainly kept his promise.
But sometimes I yearn for the days of former Fed chairmen Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, who revealed nothing of what the Fed was thinking. Greenspan was particularly adept at befuddling even Congressional committees with his famous “fed-speak” language that left committee members and analysts asking afterwards, “Wha’d he say?”
Friday, September 14, 2012
Disinformation Avoidance for Investment Health, QE to Infinity / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
“The Big One Cometh” we wrote last week, and indeed IT, at least two Legs of IT, Did.
First, The ECB announced a program of “Unlimited Bond Buying,” “Q.E. to Infinity” as Jim Sinclair put it months ago and we concurred.
And now, The Fed has announced it will buy $40 Billion of Mortgages per Month for an unlimited time period.
But The Fed already has $2.8 Trillion on its Balance Sheet, and the ECB over $3 Trillion. The Powers-that-be claim this is not inflationary, but recent real Food and Energy Price Inflation show this to be untrue. And there is no mention of the problems of buying Impaired Collateral.
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Friday, September 14, 2012
Apple's iPhone, Germany, the Fed: Why It's All Irrelevant to Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
A lot of people know that R.N. Elliott discovered the Wave Principle.
Yet few are aware that Elliott made another observation during his years of studying the stock market.
Read full article... Read full article...As the Wave Principle forecasts the different phases or segments of a cycle, the experienced student will find that current news or happenings, or even decrees or acts of government, seem to have but little effect, if any, upon the course of the cycle. It is true that sometimes unexpected news or sudden events, particularly those of a highly emotional nature, may extend or curtail the length of travel between corrections, but the number of waves or underlying rhythmic regularity of the market remains constant [emphasis added].
Friday, September 14, 2012
Central Bankers Insider Traders of Last Resort, Can Remain Solvent Longer Than Markets Can Stay Irrational / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
The synchronized announcement of QE-3 plus the capitulation of the German hard-liners to the money printing plans of the ECB caused a knee-jerk jump in the price of gold measured in dollars, and a collective sigh of…”here we go again”.Surely Hayek is turning in his grave? Perhaps not:
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Friday, September 14, 2012
Why There’s No Jail Time for Wall Streeters / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
Shah Gilani writes: Wall Street is a "protected" operation. Protected means cops are aware of illegal activity, but are paid off to look the other way and even protect businesses from potential harm.So, if you're waiting to get back into the markets once the trash has been taken out, you're about to find out your wait may be a lot longer than you expected.
Friday, September 14, 2012
QE3 of $40 Billion Per Month Impact on Markets / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve initiated QE3 and this prompted a big rally in risky assets. As you know, we were expecting Mr. Bernanke to unleash ‘stimulus’ but even we were taken aback by the extent of the easing.
During his press conference, Mr. Bernanke stated that the Federal Reserve will buy US$40 billion worth of agency mortgage-backed securities every month until the US job market improves. Furthermore, he confirmed that the Federal Reserve will continue with its Operation Twist 2 program,keep interest rates at near zero until mid-2015 and maintain an accommodative monetary policy well into the economic recovery! When a reporter asked Mr. Bernanke whether he could elaborate until when the Federal Reserve will continue to create US$40 billion every month ‘out of thin air’, he evaded the question.
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Thursday, September 13, 2012
Investing Secrets You Need to Know to Keep Wall Street From Stealing Your Future / Stock-Markets / Investing 2012
William Patalon III writes: One of the great things about vacation - in addition to all the time I get to spend with my wife and five-year-old son - is that I actually get to peruse the books and watch the movies that I spent the other 51 weeks of the year setting aside.
Don't misunderstand: I don't spend the week away from the office holed up and away from my family. Quite the opposite.
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Thursday, September 13, 2012
Dollar and Gold Resting on the Bernanke Decision / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2012
Often is the case that the dollar will reverse just before or within days of a major anticipated news event. If I'm right, today's potential bottoming tail candlestick just shy of the Fed’s announcement tomorrow may be an indication of a Bernanke disappointment. On this basis, the dollar has bottomed and will likely undergo a sharp upward reversal into the remainder of this week.
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Thursday, September 13, 2012
End of Stocks Bull Market Signaled by Three Peaks and a Domed House Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Ed Carlson writes: Even prior to the new high on 9/11/12, a follower of George Lindsay's Three Peaks and a Domed House model might have been wondering 'could the 3PDh forecast be incorrect?' What would make it incorrect? The three peaks, as labeled in the chart below, meet the requirement of a time span of 6-10 months between peaks one and three. Actually, the distance is not quite six months but is greater than five months.
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