Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I 'Believe' We Rally Into A June Swoon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
It is now approaching almost a decade since I began writing public articles outlining my analysis in various markets. And, I have learned a lot about the general investor community based upon many of the comments I have received during that time.
One of the things that I find quite pervasive is the drive for "common-think." But, even that is a misleading classification. You see, I do not believe investors think anymore.
Rather, I see investors often grab onto something they read or hear in the media, and take personal "ownership" over that idea because it resonates with them for whatever reason. It then becomes the basis for their entire view of the market, and they seek articles which provide confirmation to their bias, and argue with articles that do not. So, rather than seeking out the truth in the market and continually testing their perspective in an objective fashion, most investors simply adopt a personal opinion and ignore or attack anything that disagrees with that opinion. Therefore, truth and profit in investing no longer seem to be the ultimate goal.
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Saturday, June 05, 2021
Stock Market Russell 2000 After Reaching A Trend Channel High Flags Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Russell 2000, which had experienced an incredible 48% upside price rally after the November 2020 US elections, has recently peaked near an upward sloping price channel that originated shortly after the 2010 Housing Crisis bottom. The incredible aspect is that the post-COVID price rally accelerated at such an extreme rate that the current peak level (highlighted by the MAGENTA circle on the chart below) represents an extreme rally phase in price. Unquestionably, at this point, the markets are searching for a new trend and the IWM has consolidated into a sideways Flagging price formation.
I believe global traders are currently searching for new opportunities and have taken the past 45+ days to re-evaluate the extent of the post-COVID rally in the markets. Ironically, the IWM and SPY show similar types of extreme rallies to a previous (2009~2010) price channel high. It is the opinion of my team and I that the markets have entered an over-enthusiastic rally phase to reach these levels and are currently stalling while searching for a new trend.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
Investors Who Blindly Trust the ‘Experts’ Will Get Left Behind / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The country has largely been divided into two camps. The first camp is full of people who just don’t pay too much attention. They have unshakable faith in Wall Street and government institutions.
The typical investor buys stocks for the long haul. It might be because financial advisors are just as unquestioning, knowing they are rarely criticized for following the herd.
Sadly, mainstream advisors still snicker whenever a client brings up gold – even though the naysayers have been wrong about gold for 20 years.
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Friday, June 04, 2021
US Stock Market Indexes Consolidate Into Flagging Pattern – Watch For Aggressive Trending Soon / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Over the past few weeks, the US major indexes have consolidated into a sideways price channel. This is most obvious on the NASDAQ and SPY charts as we’ve seen moderately deep pullbacks through the months of April/May 2021. My research suggests this sideways price Flagging might be concerning for active traders/investors.
When the market flags into a sideways price pattern and near an Apex level, price tends to act in a very aggressive manner while attempting to establish a new trend. The longer price continues to trade within that sideways/flagging price range, the more aggressive and violent the new trend may be when it finally breaks free of the sideways price channel.
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Thursday, June 03, 2021
No More Market Bloodbath – Beyond Cryptos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 again rejected within sight of ATHs – again, but not totally convincingly. Especially the credit markets‘ mixed picture leans in effect slightly bullish, yet for the 500-strong index, the source of short-term worry would likely be the tech sector again. Either not pulling ahead as strongly, or taking a breather, which should be more noticeable in XLK than in Nasdaq 100.
VIX looks to be done declining, and the option traders have hedged their Thursday‘s bets. Given the wavering risk-on segment of the credit markets, it‘s probably justifiably enough. Inflation expectations rose a little though, faster than the Treasury yields moved, which could be taken as a sign of value likely to do overall fine next – and that‘s also confirmed by smallcaps and emerging markets. As I wrote on Friday:
(…) Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.
It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.
In other words, I am not buying into the taper smoke and mirrors. The Fed knows that it can‘t (seriously) take away the support – it can only talk that, and look what the market does next. It‘s a long journey of preparation, and I am not looking for the central bank to move any time soon:
Thursday, June 03, 2021
Bank run, or run from the banks? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Raymond_Matison
Our nation’s economic conditions have been influenced negatively by a viral lockdown of overall industry such that many of its component parts are in dire financial straits, and a large portion of our total labor force not earning an adequate or any income. This has easily understandable consequences to our overall national economic fabric. For example, as individuals have less or even no earned income - it implies reduced spending on their behalf, which for a consumer–based economy has notably negative consequences. Also when a lockdown occurs people cannot and do not spend as much money – so our consumer driven economy is debilitated.Lower consumer spending also means reduced revenues and profits for manufacturers, distributors and marketers. Lower income for both individuals and companies necessarily means lower taxes collected by local and national governments, usually weakening their capabilities for stimulative fiscal policies.
Lower consumer incomes also mean that credit card, auto and mortgage loan defaults will rise – as indeed they have risen over the last several years and are likely to rise further. The inability of consumers to pay rent will cause owners of rental properties to default on their mortgages. Lower corporate profits suggests that available bank company credit lines will be tightened, and corporate bond defaults necessarily rise. Local, state, and national governments collecting fewer dollars in taxes suggests that their borrowing has to increase, heightening the concern also over such more significant bond defaults. None of this is rocket science. Corroborating this with pithy charts or tables is now unnecessary and unproductive – as such data has been ignored by investors for a decade or more, while the Federal Reserve has been flooding the country with newly created, inflationary money. Individuals, companies, and governments believe that they will always be bailed out by FED money easing policies! But quite the opposite is the truth: debt and FED money printing is now destroying both money and the economy.
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Wednesday, June 02, 2021
Stock Market Breakout Or Breakdown – What Does The Next Big Trend Look Like? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just in case you missed this recent research article, we wanted to put it back on top of your reading list for the long Memorial Day weekend. As the markets continue to slide into this “Start of Summer” holiday, we’re still seeing big trends setting up over the next few weeks and months. The way certain assets and sectors are reacting right now may lead many investors to believe a breakout trend is setting up (which could be the case). But, behind the scenes, sectors are starting to show signs of a broader Excess Phase Peak pattern that may surprise those that are not paying attention.
Our Custom Volatility Index, shown below, suggests the markets have now rallied into extreme overbought levels which have historically resulted in a moderate price pullback after reaching levels above 13~14. We may start out seeing some type of bigger price trending/rotation after the long Memorial Day Holiday should this indicator prove accurate.
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Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Stock Market Buy the Dip, Again?! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 attempted a breakout, but retreated. Is that a reversal, or proof of more pressure building up? Much starker move in the high yield corporate bonds would speak in favor of a reversal, but only until the higher end of the debt markets is examined. Or the volume for that matter, as these would put the reversal hypothesis to rest.
VIX continues turning lower, and option traders are getting the message – finally, the put/call ratio appears to be on a declining path, meaning that fewer market participants are expecting another shoe to drop. As if one fell in the first place, really. Is that the worst of the inflation scare being over, for now? Probably yes, and the retreating Treasury yields are mollifying – but as explained in ample detail, this calm before the (autumn) storm, is deceptive. Calling the Fed‘s bluff, precious metals (and some commodities) are onto something, really.
One more proof why the stock market bears are at a disadvantage, comes from other indices, namely the Russell 2000 (look for value to benefit), and emerging markets. The magic of ample Fed support is making its way through the system, lifting prices in many asset classes amid still rampant speculation. It‘s only the cream of select commodities that has been taken off – in the big scheme of things, nothing but a consolidation within an existing secular bull market, is happening there. While the inflation trades have been dialed back to a degree, they haven‘t been broken as the Fed is in a reactive, not proactive mode. More precisely, it remains in denial of the inflation ahead.
Tuesday, June 01, 2021
Stock Market Consolidation Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 from 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, May 31, 2021
Stock Market Summer Correction Review, Crypto CRASH, Bitcoin Bear Market Initial Targets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Stock Market Early Summer Correction Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Five more small cap high risk stocks with the potential to X10 to invest in for 2021 and beyond, which follows on from my analysis of 9th of April How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond featuring 5 stocks as I am seeking to replenish my portfolio after many former small cap high risk stocks have either been taken over or migrated into becoming 'safe' stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and TSMC, where the best of the new stocks in terms of current valuations was Corsair.
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Eerily Serene Risk off Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 had a mixed day, and the credit market underlines the shift to risk-off. Halfway shift, to be precise – the high yield corporate bonds recovered the intraday downside but value sold off all the way to the closing bell. Well, rising yields used to add to tech‘s problems since mid Feb, and retreating yields don‘t breathe enough life into the sector now. It‘s clearly visible that the high beta segments are facing the yields‘ headwinds while $NYFANG is in the black, but more than a little lagging.
The Treasury market reprieve I announced on May 18 to last more than a good few weeks, is here. While it works to lift tech and hamper value, the days of value doing fine are far from over as the VTV:QQQ ratio illustrates:
(…) We‘re still in the value outperforming growth environment (reflation and reopening themes), it‘s just right now (last few days) that tech is pulling stronger ahead than value. ... Value‘s reaction to the yields trajectory ahead would be telling, and I have no doubts there is quite some more juice left in the long value trade (and that the Russell 2000 isn‘t rolling over to the downside here).
Emerging markets are welcoming the dollar woes and yields reprieve, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t too much of a drag either. VIX refused further downside yesterday, and is hedging off bets as much as the option players do – no change in prior trends here, just a move away from the complacent end of the spectrum. The stock bull run is still about dips being bought.
Friday, May 28, 2021
Stock Market Cycles Tipping From Euphoria To Complacency – Gold Setting Up For Rally Above $2000 Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Gold has set up a very strong confluence pattern across multiple foreign currencies recently. This upside confluence pattern suggests that Gold has now moved into a much stronger bullish price phase compared to various currency pairs. This upside move in precious metals aligns very well with my broad market cycle phase research. I urge traders/investors to start paying attention as we transition into this new longer-term cycle phase.
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Friday, May 28, 2021
Inflation Cools (For Now) Stagflation Awaits / Stock-Markets / Stagflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed
That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?”
To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had to be tamped down. And so, Google users have indeed eased their neuroses right along with a recent tamping of inflationary hysteria.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2021
FREE Report - This Stock Strategy beat the market by 220% / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
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Monday, May 24, 2021
Stock Market New Uptrend Starting? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: Phase three (wave 5 rom 3723) is now likely underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Sunday, May 23, 2021
Crypto, Stock Markets Rising from the Ashes / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 caught a partial bid yesterday, enough to stave off the break of prior Wednesday‘s lows. All isn‘t fine under the surface though as yet another Fed trial baloon emerges – this time, talking about talking taper, doing predictable wonders for the dollar. As I have stated, it‘s when the Fed would really move that the greenback would go up again. The important word here is „really“ - this doesn‘t qualify yet, but the noises can‘t be ignored.
That‘s taking me to the partial bid mention as it shows in the S&P 500 sectoral action – tech rises and value continues trembling. The Russell 2000 keeps lagging while emerging markets seem to still doubt the Fed‘s seriousness. But the VIX daily move is positive as the daily spike has been clearly rejected – another, this time a smaller and pickier algo repositioning at work. At the same time, option players got positioned for another shoe to drop, tying in well with their moves overall since late Feb.
Inflationary fears aren‘t by any means quelled just yet – Treasuries disregarded yesterday‘s retreat in inflation expectations. The Fed approach needs a refresher:
Sunday, May 23, 2021
True or False: Inflation = Stock Market Sell-off? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Before you answer, recognize that the "market has a law of its own"
The topic of inflation has been grabbing a lot of financial headlines.
Indeed, financial journalists have "blamed" inflation for recent stock market sell-offs.
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Saturday, May 22, 2021
What Investors and Traders Should Be Doing About the Stock Market’s Strange Behavior / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Today, I’m going to answer a question that’s likely on your mind. It’s about the stock market’s recent strange behavior and the one thing ALL investors and traders should be doing about it.You see, one of the very first stocks I ever recommended just reported phenomenal earnings. Sales jumped 37%. The company acquired a record number of customers, and it forecasts great sales again next quarter. What do you think happened to the stock price? We’ll come back to this in a moment.
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Thursday, May 20, 2021
Credit Market Wheels in Danger of Coming Off? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
SPX backing and filling worthy of Monday‘s session – with important rotations below the surface. Namely, tech and Nasdaq underwent daily consolidation on long-dated Treasuries retreating a little. Key point though was rejection of the intraday downside, making the S&P 500 pendulum likelier to swing this week again bullish. The VIX spike was rejected while option traders didn‘t give up much of their bearish resolve, which doesn‘t spoil the bullish picture though.
Stock trading yesterday was accompanied by the bond markets moving down. Such a non-confirmation is encouraging in its implications, as the markets are still taking seriously the transitory inflation messaging in light of the less alarming nature of Thursday‘s PPI. Seems like we‘re in for a few relatively stable weeks of Treasury yields undeperforming inflation expectations before the yield climb returns:
(…) The transitory inflation story got modestly supported, but while I think that the red hot CPI inflation would die down a little (i.e. not keep rising ever as steeply as was the case with Wednesday‘s data) once the year on year base to compare it against normalizes, a permanently elevated plateau of high and rising inflation would be a reality for more than foreseeable future simply because the Fed would be as behind as Arthur Burns was in fighting the 1970s inflation, and upward price pressures in the job market pressures would kick in.