Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, April 14, 2021
Stocks are Heating Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
In keeping with its historical performance, April has started off white-hot. We ended March, and Q1 for that matter, with more questions than answers.
But April 2021 started with a blowout jobs report, and the indices haven't looked back since. Right now, the S&P 500 is at yet another record, the Dow is just about at a record, and we've seen a furious comeback for Big Tech and growth stocks.
The sentiment is certainly better now than it was just a couple of weeks ago. However, I implore you to remember that every month in 2021 thus far has started off hot and saw a pullback/volatility occur in the second half of the month.
Think about it. In January, we had the GameStop trade spooking investors. In February and March, we had surging bond yields, inflation fears, or Jay Powell comments that rubbed people the wrong way. These concerns won't just disappear because we want them to. If we could make things magically disappear, COVID would've been over yesterday.
Tuesday, April 13, 2021
Stock Market Minor Correction Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is in the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 2-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Monday, April 12, 2021
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
The McClellan Summation Index has been "in a clearly defined downtrend since late December"
Many Main Street investors only pay attention to the daily trading closes of the main stock indexes.
But those who fall in that camp are missing out on a lot of valuable insights regarding the strength or weakness of a trend. In other words, when it comes to the stock market, it pays to "look under the hood."
For example, on Friday (March 26), all three major indexes rallied with the S&P 500 climbing 1.7% to hit a record closing high. Those who glance at the stock market headlines may have concluded "all systems go."
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Friday, April 09, 2021
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 is still consolidating Monday‘s sharp gains, showered with liquidity. Yet it seems that eking out further gains is getting harder as the price action took the index quite far from its key moving averages. If I had to pick one sign of stiffer headwinds ahead, it would be the tech sector‘s reaction to another daily retreat in Treasury yields – the sector didn‘t rally, and neither did the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Value stocks saved the day, and it appears we‘re about to see them start doing better again, relatively speaking.
Yes, the risk-reward ratio for the bulls is at unsavory levels in the short run. What about being short at this moment then? It all depends upon the trading style, risk tolerance and time horizon. I‘m not looking for stocks making a major top here as the bull run is intact thanks to:
(..) Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
My prognosis for yesterday‘s session materialized, and we have seen quite a record number (around 95%) of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, which is similar to the setup right after the post-dotcom bubble bear market 2002/3 lows, or 1-2 years after the bull market run off the Mar 2009 lows. Hard to say which one is more hated, but I see the run from Mar 2020 generational low as the gold medal winner, especially given the denial accompanying it since.
Friday, April 09, 2021
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
I really wonder how many of you that read this article entrust your hard-earned money to money managers? My next question is, of those that do, how many of you really understand your money managers' approach to managing money? And, my last question is if you believe that your money managers' goals are not aligned with yours?
Since the first question I asked at the start of this article is more rhetorical in nature, as I simply cannot answer it, I will move to the second question.
Of late, I have been reading articles published by money managers and I have honestly scratched my head. In fact, if you have been reading articles by them over the last 12 months, you would likely be scratching your head as well.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This video presents the final forecast conclusion in a detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 , extensive analysis of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work.
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Thursday, April 08, 2021
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Markets tend to move in cycles. They typically experience cyclical pullbacks after trending higher for a long period of time. Rarely do markets move straight up or straight down.
The stock market has, however, essentially moved straight up since the March 2020 mini-crash. As the market moves higher, an increasing number of “analysts” are calling for even higher equity prices.
Just last week, in fact, an analyst called for the broad market S&P 500 index to double by 2030.
Calls for an 8000 S&P do not seem quite as farfetched as they did just a year ago. That is the power of greed (and wishful thinking) at work.
Thursday, April 08, 2021
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value not yielding an inch. A rare constellation given the the long-dated Treasuries performance especially – as if the narratives were flipped, and value „could“ move up on rising yields. Well, liquidity and bets on the stocks benefiting from the coming infrastructure bill.
Any way you look at it, the market breadth is positive and ready to support the coming upswing continuation, even though I look for a largely sideways day in stocks on Tuesday given the aptly called fireworks to happen yesterday. Sizable long profits in stock market trades #6 and #7 have been taken off the table – 149 points in my Standard money managements, and 145 points in the Advanced money management that comes on top.
Both the VIX and put/call ratio are at extended levels – the first below 18 (formerly unimaginable to stock market non-bulls), the second approaching local lows again. As I have written yesterday:
(…) Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks is on, driven by tech gains and value swinging higher as well. Throughout the markets, risk-on has been making a return as long-dated Treasury yields retreated, dollar fell and commodities continue their bullish flag formation. As I have tweeted on Thursday, it were the investment grade corporate bonds that signalled the turnaround in yields spreading to TLT next. Given such a constellation, the dollar‘s appeal is taking a dive as the bond market gets its reprieve. When nominal yields retreat while inflation (and inflation expectations) keep rising, real rates decline, and that leads to dollar‘s decline.
Stocks are more focused on the tidal wave of liquidity rather than the tax increases that follow behind. So far, it‘s still reflation – tame inflation expectations given the avalanche of fresh money, real economy slowly but surely heating up (non-farm payrolls beat expectations on Friday), and not about the long-term consequences of tax hikes:
(…) Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.
And as the falling yields were embraced by tech with open arms, the sector‘s leadership in the S&P 500 upswing is back. As you‘ll see further on, the market breadth isn‘t pitiful either – slight non-confirmation yes, but I am looking for it to be gradually resolved with yet another price upswing, and that means more open profits (that‘s 7 winning stock market 2021 trades in a row).
Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Which ETFs Will Benefit As A Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent news of Hedge Fund and other institutional crisis events has opened many eyes as investors and traders realize the post-2008-09 global market credit bubble has extended well beyond what many people may realize. Recent news that China offered a “deferment” for Chinese corporations and state-run enterprises content with shadow banking credit/debt issues at a time when China is tightening monetary policy shows that a process, like the 2008 Lehman incident, may be setting up where institutional level credit/debt liabilities ripple through the global markets as global central banks attempt to reign in monetary policies.
This process is not likely to happen suddenly though. If this type of contraction in global monetary policy takes place, resulting in increased pressures to contain excessive credit/debt functions in the markets, then we believe the process may result in an extended 9 to 16+ months of “hit-and-miss” events leading up to a potentially bigger event. The Archegos Fund forced unwinding of trades hit the markets recently as a wake-up call. Prior to the Archegos event, the Greensill Capital collapse shocked the global markets because of the size and scope of this failure. Now, we see Credit Suisse issuing warnings that Q1 earnings may have taken a big hit because of exposure to the Greensill and Archegos assets – which is leading to Credit Suisse attempting to put the Gupta Trading Unit into insolvency.
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Tuesday, April 06, 2021
Stock Market Pushing Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX is starting on the next phase of its intermediate uptrend.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, April 05, 2021
Stocks All Time Highs and Gold Double Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Bullish run in stocks that lost steam before the close – does that qualify as a reversal? Given the other moves such as in the Dow Industrials, Russell 2000 and emerging markets, it‘s unlikely that the S&P 500 met more than a temporary setback. Just look at the rush into risk-on assets as an immediate reaction to the infrastructure and taxation plans – see the high yield corporate bonds moving higher (and this time also investment grade corporate bonds finally) as long-dated Treasuries keep losing ground, and the dollar noticeably wavered.
Yes, emerging worries about how this will be all paid for – not that an ideological challenge to modern monetary theory would be gaining any traction, but rather what would be the (quite predictable) effect of steep tax increases? Reduction in economic activity, unproductive moves to outset the effects, decrease in potential GDP? Remember the time proven truth that whatever the percentage rate, the government always takes in less than 20% GDP in taxes. The only question is the degree of distortions that the tax rate spawns.
Sunday, April 04, 2021
Penny Stocks Hit $2 Trillion - The Real Story Behind This "Road to Riches" Scheme / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
By Steven Hochberg : Penny stocks are an investment vehicle that really has garnered the attention and speculation of investors in early 2021. They're plunging headlong into off-exchange shares.
I remember back when I started in the early 1980s at Merrill Lynch, there was a guy that walked in the office and he had pieces of paper that were pink, and I didn't know what they were.
I was 23 years old, just starting out. I went over to him and said, "What are you looking at?" And he turned to me and he said, "Son, this is your road to riches right here." And then he was looking at the OTC bulletin board pink sheets of these off-penny stocks.
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Sunday, April 04, 2021
Should Stock Markets Fear Inflation or Deflation? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
How about both.
You can't go ten minutes on financial media these days without coming across a reference to inflation. That is, consumer price inflation to be more exact -- the measurement of changes in the prices of consumer goods and services that the entire world has been hoodwinked by central banks into thinking is the definition of inflation. The proper definition of inflation is the expansion of money and credit in an economy. On that definition, most major economies have been experiencing high inflation for decades.
Sigh, nevertheless, the focus for the markets at this moment is on a potential rise in consumer price inflation. The general underlying narrative from conventional analysts is that this is a good thing for markets because it is preferable to consumer price deflation. But is it?
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Saturday, April 03, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18) - Current Risk is VERY LOW. The Crash Indicator is one of the neural nets I am working on as my AI takes baby steps into understanding how to interpret the stock market. It's task is to state the current risk of a bear market or crash being imminent i.e. within the next week or so. So an independant indicator that acts as a warning to HEDGE stock portfolios ahead of a high probability declines in the market. Where my preferred hedging tool is to go short stock index futures so as to capitalise on any drop delivering fresh funds to buy more AI stocks at deep discounts just as I did during March 2020. The last time this indicator triggered a warning was late February, so it is not a trading indicator but instead a Hedge your portfolio warning indicator.
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Saturday, April 03, 2021
Stocks, Gold and the Troubling Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Yesterday‘s consolidation in stocks was a bullish one, and the S&P 500 upswing has good prospects of proceeding unimpeded. Strange but true if you consider that also a plan to considerably raise taxes would be announced today, so as to help pay for the stimulus wave. The bond markets are calmly overlooking that so far, enabling the run to the 4,000 mark.
And it still appears a question of time. Inflation isn‘t yet biting (forget about the German CPI data for now), fresh money keeps hitting the markets, and Archegos is about to become a distant memory. Stocks seem immune to the rising yields spell at the moment, meaning that value trades can remain at elevated levels while technology is stuck in no man‘s land and defensives are consolidating recent sharp gains (consolidating until the rising yields come back with vengeance).
And there is little reason given the Fed‘s stance why they shouldn‘t. Much of the marketplace is buying into the transitory inflation story, and inflation expectations aren‘t yet running too hot. As the economic growth is stronger than current or future inflation, we‘re still at a good stage in the inflation cycle – everyone benefits and no one pays.
Friday, April 02, 2021
Markets, Mayhem and Elliott Waves / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Dear reader,
We are one year into the bull market that began in March 2020 -- and 12 years into the bigger bull market than began in early 2009.
You are probably getting anxious -- what's next for stocks, interest rates, gold and other commodities?
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Friday, April 02, 2021
Stock Market Support Near $14,358 On Transportation Index Suggests Rally Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
An interesting Fibonacci Measured Move pattern has set up in the Transportation Index (TRAN) recently. The Transportation Index is an important component of the future US economic expectations. As the Transportation Index rises, one could assume greater economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months. As the Transportation Index declines, one could assume weaker economic activity is expected in the near-term 3 to 6+ future months. My research team and I watch the TRAN as a type of confirming indicator for US major index and sector trends. When we see the TRAN rising sharply, we can often assume various US sector trends will also move higher.
The Transportation Index Daily chart below shows two key elements we find interesting. The first RED price range on this chart represents a 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move from the early November 2020 bottom to the mid-January 2021 peak. If we extend that same range to the early February lows, we see a major support level exists near $14,358 (a full 100% Fibonacci Measured Price move). The TRAN price has recently broken above this level and we believe this support level will likely hold and prompt another moderate rally attempt above $14,750.
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Thursday, April 01, 2021
How To Spot Market Boom and Bust Cycles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One of the most important aspects of trading is being able to properly identify major market cycles and trends. The markets will typically move between four separate stages: Bottoming/Basing, Rallying, Topping/Distribution, and Bearish Trending. Each of these phases of market trends is often associated with various degrees of market segment trending as well. For example, one of the most telling phrases of when the stock market is nearing an eventual Topping/Distribution phase is when the housing market gets super-heated. Yet, one of the most difficult aspects of this Excess Phase rally trend is that it can last many months or years, and usually longer than many people expect.
Until Gold Really Starts To Rally, Expect A Continued Rally In The Stock Market
When an Excess Phase rally is taking place in the stock market, we expect to see the Lumber vs. Gold ratio moving higher and typically see the RSI indicator stay above 50. Demand for lumber, a commodity necessary for building, remodeling, and other consumer essential spending, translates well as an economic barometer for big-ticket consumer spending. Extreme peaks in this ratio can often warn of a pending shift in consumer spending and how the stock market reacts to an Excess Phase Peak. Let’s take a look at some of the historical reference points on this longer-term Weekly Lumber vs. Gold chart below.
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Thursday, April 01, 2021
What Could Slay the Stock & Gold Bulls / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Put/call ratio didn‘t lie, and the anticipated S&P 500 upswing came on Friday – fireworks till the closing bell. Starting on Thursday, with the rising yields dynamic sending value stocks higher – and this time technology didn‘t stand in the way. What an understatement given the strong Friday sectoral showing, acocmpanied by the defensives swinging higher as well. And that‘s the characterization of the stock market rise – it‘s led by the defensive sectors with value stocks coming in close second now.
Still last week, the market confirmed my early Friday‘s take:
(…) While it‘s far from full steam ahead, it‘s a welcome sight that the reflation trade dynamic has returned, and that technology isn‘t standing in the way. I think we‘re on the doorstep of another upswing establishing itself, which would be apparent latest Monday. Credit markets support such a conclusion, and so does the premarket turn higher in commodities – yes, I am referring also to yesterday‘s renewed uptick in inflation expectation.
Neither running out of control, nor declaring the inflation scare (as some might term it but not me, for I view the markets as transitioning to a higher inflation environment) as over, inflation isn‘t yet strong enough to break the bull run, where both stocks and commodities benefit. It isn‘t yet forcing the Fed‘s hand enough, but look for it to change – we got a slight preview in the recent emergency support withdrawal and taper entertainment talking points, however distant from today‘s situation.