Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, July 25, 2021
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
Bear markets tend to follow this particular sentiment
In many global regions, economies are flourishing.
For example, here are two headlines about the U.S.:
What America's Startup Boom Could Mean For The Economy (npr.com, June 29)
Inflation Rose in June as Economic Recovery Continues (WSJ, July 13)
The goings-on in the United Kingdom provide another example. Employers in the UK are hiring people at the highest rate in more than six years. Plus, business and consumer spending are climbing swiftly -- at the fastest clip in a quarter of a century.
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Saturday, July 24, 2021
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Submissions
Equities traded quietly higher in Thursday's NY session. Simultaneously, bonds were bid rather firmly, sending interest rates even lower. What is going on beneath the surface?
Greetings. I hope this article finds you and yours well. Today, we are taking a look at some additional market indicators and internals to get an unbiased perspective on things.
First, I want to preface things by mentioning that I am not suggesting that I am fully bearish on the S&P 500 or stocks right now. However, I am taking more of a cautious stance at the moment.
Saturday, July 24, 2021
How does CFD trading work / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Submissions
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Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Most traders don’t really have a solid strategy in place to protect assets and assist them in knowing when to pull risk capital away from market trends. If you are trading on MEME stock content, variable technical strategies or flying by the seat of your pants when making trading decisions, you are probably very concerned and emotional about the recent downside price rotation in the major markets right now.
What is happening is that the markets are attempting to potentially start a reversion event – a price rotation. This rotation in price may turn into a bigger price correction or downtrend at some point in the near future. But right now, we are only seeing moderate price rotation in the US and global markets. Should you be concerned about this spike in volatility and the timing of this correction? This a good and valid question. Let my team and I try to help you regarding what may happen in the near future.
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Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this second part of our research into how capital is being deployed across the globe and why traders/investors continue to pour capital into the US equities markets, we’ll explore how the US major indexes have reacted to the continued investments by the US and foreign investors compared to foreign market trends.
Using methods like this to determine where capital is being allocated and why traders/investors decide to move capital into and out of various global indexes, suggests one of the most important aspects of swing trading is to stay keenly aware of how capital is moving and deploying across the globe.
In October of 2019, we attempted to highlight how capital is shifting and how trends are setting up in currencies, global major indexes, and other global sectors.
October 17, 2019: CURRENCIES SHOW A SHIFT TO SAFETY AND MATURITY – WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
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Tuesday, July 20, 2021
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
Hi,
2021 is hallway over. In Q3 and Q4, what in the world should you be watching?
That's not an easy question to answer. There is a lot to look at. In just the past 2-3 months:
- Bitcoin got cut in half
- Crude oil rallied from $62 to $76 - that's 20%
- Gold dropped ~8%, then rebounded
- USD had its sharpest rally in over a year
- Nikkei 225 dropped 1700 points and then rallied 1200
- Nasdaq rose1600 points - over 12%
Markets are MOVING -- and surely, you're wondering what Elliott waves show for Q3/Q4.
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Sunday, July 18, 2021
What Does The Fed Mean By “Transitory Inflation” And Why Is It Important To Understand? / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As the markets react to the somewhat shocking CPI and Inflation data while Q2:2021 earnings continue to roll across the news wires, we wanted to take a minute to explore the recent Fed comments related to “Transitory Inflation” and what that really means.
For those of you not familiar with the word ‘transitory’ (in conjunction with inflation) according to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, Transitory means:
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Sunday, July 18, 2021
Will the US stock market’s worsening breadth matter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
US stock market breadth is fading
The US stock market has bad breadth as participation thins out markedly. Below are a few examples.
Equal weight SPX is fading headline SPX per this chart which we feature occasionally in NFTRH but update the status of most weeks.
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Peak of the Fake Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Michael_Pento
We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit margins. The economy has enjoyed peak fiscal and monetary stimulus and those tailwinds will soon become strong headwinds. Also, peak tax relief is now in the rear-view mirror; and higher taxes are around the corner. Finally, peak asset valuations have arrived and the associated wealth effect is now waning.Confirming this view is a series of slowing economic data--a reduction in the rate of change in growth and inflation. For now, this is not a crisis or a recession; but is set to become one next year. Here are some facts and data:
Personal income decreased $414.3 billion (2.0 percent) in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures were virtually unchanged. Despite that fact that job openings are at all-time high, at the same time, initial jobless claims are running at a level that is 75% above/higher than the pre-pandemic level. This begs the question: why is the US laying off people at a rate that is three quarters greater than before COVID-19, despite that fact that the economy has reopened? After all, the pandemic crisis is now a year and a half old; shouldn’t layoffs be almost non-existent?
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Monday, July 12, 2021
Stock Market Probing for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over, and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has likely reached the end of an intermediate phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Saturday, July 10, 2021
Escaping The United States May Be Leading To An Extreme Market Bubble Setup / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few years have seen housing prices skyrocket as Flippers, Speculators and Traditional Buyers jump into home buying or selling to relocate to different areas throughout the US. One interesting facet of this phenomenon recently hit NBC news over the past few days related to the super hot Boise Idaho and Coeur D’Alene Idaho market. Home prices in the Boise area have skyrocketed higher by over 30% in just 12 months. In Coeur D’Alene, home prices have risen over 85% in the past 12 months.
Is a Supply/Demand Measure Distorted By Recent Buying Activity – And What’s Next?
My concern is that the post-COVID buying/relocating trends have pushed the Supply/Demand pricing factors well past the equilibrium. Simply put, the moratoriums and policies related to home renters and homeowners throughout the COVID-19 crisis have created a supply crisis at a time when many people had the capabilities to sell and relocate into different areas of the US at the same time. Diminishing supply with hyper-active demand pushes price levels upward and to the left, as illustrated on the Supply/Demand chart below.
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Friday, July 09, 2021
Stock Market Summer Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I'll take a more in-depth look at the stock market trend in a forthcoming analysis. However as things stand the stock market is starting to move out of my original forecast window for a summer correction (9th Feb 2021 Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021).
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Thursday, July 08, 2021
Financial Crisis 2.0 - You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
A handful of stocks are driving the indices higher, Apple worth $2.3 trillion, Microsoft $2 trillion, Amazon $1.8 trillion, Google 1.8 trillion, Facebook $1 trillion even that over priced pile of poop Tesla came close to being valued at $1 trillion, we are definitely in a bubble, you only need to go onto youtube and watch the to the moon videos of Cathy Wood, literally everything's going to go to the moon because her barely out of puberty Quants decree it to be so. This is clearly a major warning sign of a unsustainable trend when indices are ruled by such a small clique of tech stocks where the greatest similarity is with the dot come bubble in terms of the valuation of stocks that actually produce revenues unlike the largely worthless dot com's of that time.
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Wednesday, July 07, 2021
The Matrix of Market Psychology / Stock-Markets / Trader Psychology
By: Gary_Tanashian
In the midst of work uncovering a target for the US dollar that will surprise many if it comes about, of taking a hard look at the messages of long-term Treasury yields and the yield curve, defining potential macro outcomes (inflation, Goldilocks or deflation) based on these indications and planning strategy accordingly, NFTRH 662 got a little out there with a discussion of the mindset that is behind the name of the Notes From the Rabbit Hole service.
The mention of John Hussman (I could also have put the estimable Jeff Snider or the Robert Prechter of yore in this piece) is not meant to insult. It is meant to simply state that a fiduciary manager like him, honestly following his work, is not geared to make significant gains during high risk market phases.
I too do not make the gains I could make (temporary though they would be) if I were a blue pill gulping all-in happy idiot. I am bound to ongoing risk management, but also avoiding the red pill while profit making and profit taking (part of risk management) with an awareness of the importance (for me) of high cash levels in a persistently high risk market (as defined by structurally over-bullish sentiment among other things).
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
You Don't Know How Big of a Bubble Your in until AFTER it BURSTS - Financial Crisis 2.0 / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I had planned on sending five more biotech stocks to invest and forget for a potential X10 as a continuation of my analysis of 25th May when I covered 5 small cap stocks (4 biotech) (Five More Small Cap Bio and Tech Stocks to Invest for 2021 and Beyond! . However, instead for the past few weeks I have been focused on adding meat to my decision of 17th June 2021 to disinvest from my AI stocks portfolio by reducing it by about 38% to date, having sold 50% of my Google shares, 70% Facebook, 100% Amazon, 100% Nvidia, 100% IBM, and I am contemplating some further selling given that the stocks are over valued and many divergences are taking place in the markets which were giving me flash backs to 2007 (Financial Crisis), 2000 (Dot Com Bubble) and even 1989 (Japanification) as we appear to be in a mix of all 3 bubbles to varying degree, though this does not mean a market top is imminent, it's just that we won't know a top is in until after the fact, anyway I had to de-risk to be able to sleep more comfortably at night and also let my Patrons know what I was doing that this article now seeks to illustrate why as stocks are rising into a high risk environment where complacency and high stakes gambling rules for which we only need to look at the likes of the Cathy Woods funds, Gamestop and the crypto mania bubble that topped in April but still over leveraged vested interests cling onto Bitcoin having bottomed with highly convincing commentary spewed to the masses such as stock to flow, halving's, institutional interest as I covered in my in-depth analysis of 15th June (Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels). Which to me despite the 50% drop to date, the crypto's are still in a BUBBLE with much further downside to come given the amount of leverage and further exaggerated by the likes Tether the $62 billion ponzi scheme that provides daily liquidity to the crypto markets.
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Tuesday, July 06, 2021
S&P 500 Stock Market Rally – Are We Nearing The Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Are the US stock markets poised for a reversion price event in the near future? My research team and I believe $4400 on the S&P 500 may be a key psychological level that many traders are unaware of in the immediate term. Some very interesting Fibonacci and Gann dynamics are at play as we watch the excess rally phase continue to drive markets higher. Will the Q2:2021 earning season prompt a blow-off top setup or will the markets continue to rally higher? Continue reading to learn why we are cautious of the $4400 level on the S&P 500 and why you may want to prepare for a moderately big volatility event if our research is correct.
There are a number of key technical components to our research related to the $4400 target peak level for the S&P 500. First, the Fibonacci correlation to the rally phases that have taken place throughout the bullish price waves (1-3-5) since the 2009 bottom. We’ll get to that in a minute. Second, we believe our Gann cycle phase research and Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc research suggests the current market rally is very over-extended to the upside. In other words, we believe this excessive upside price trending is likely to revert, quite strongly, at some point in the near future.
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Monday, July 05, 2021
Stock Market Projection Reached - Cycles Topping / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX has likely reached the top pf its intermediate phase.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Monday, July 05, 2021
FED: U.S. Cocktail of Growth and Inflation / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The inflationary cauldron continues to boil. However, the USDX and Treasuries are undervalued relative to U.S. GDP growth prospects. What’s going on?
The Rising Tide of Inflation
While investors are all-in on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (FED) “transitory” narrative, the inflationary cauldron continues to boil. Case in point: the IHS Markit released its manufacturing PMI on Jul. 1 and the report read that “June PMI data from IHS Markit signaled the joint-fastest improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector on record.”
Monday, July 05, 2021
Roaring Comeback of Reflation and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 broadening leadership and fresh reflationary ATHs are here – the FOMC „tightening“ hit notwithstanding. Energy, financials and industrials I discussed yesterday and before, were among the leaders, with tech not staying far behind. Crucially, the tech breadth was also improving – such rotations are the stock bull market‘s health. Neither the VIX nor the put/call ratio are arguing. The sentiment going into today‘s non-farm payrolls, remains constructive, and unlikely to result in reconstruction of the Fed tightening bets. Such was my real-time Twitter interpretation.
Credit markets remained constructive, and risk-on this time – that‘s in line with value upswing, accompanied by the Treasury yields‘ inability to retreat further. Near the top of its recent range, the 10-year Treasury yield is trading within the summer bond market calm atmosphere, and so are the beaten down inflation expectations at a time when:
(…) the dollar is catching a strong bid. We‘re still in a reflation, in the reopening trades stage – one where inflation expectations have been (unduly) hammered down while inflation hasn‘t taken a corresponding turn. Notably, commodities haven‘t been derailed in the least, so pay no attention to lumber – the real assets‘ world is much richer and profitable.
Sunday, July 04, 2021
Where Will The US Stock Markets Take Us Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we watched the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rally to the end of Q2:2021, many traders asked themselves “Will this rally continue throughout the early part of Q3:2021 and beyond?”. Although we don’t have a crystal ball to tell you exactly what is going to happen, our price modeling systems, predictive modeling tools and trend analysis systems suggest we will likely see continued upside price trending through at least July 15th to 21st. After the middle of July, we may see another pullback in trends as the markets shift away from the reflation trade expectations and start to react to 2021 holiday/COVID expectations.
The reflation trade rally has been very impressive over the past 12+ months. One simply can’t argue with the price range, trend and volatility that we’ve seen throughout all of 2020 and into the first half of 2021. My team and I expect that volatility to continue, but at a slowly decreasing range into the end of 2021. We also expect a price rotation/reversion may still happen in 2021 that may prompt an 8% to 12% downside price correction (possibly bigger).
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