Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, August 02, 2014
Stock Market Buy the Dip, Bail Out, Or Just Worry? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Here we are in August and the debate still continues as to whether the promised bounce-back from the winter slowdown took place, or if the economy is in an ongoing slump.
Why should there be any question?
The Fed assured us again at its FOMC meeting on Wednesday that “Growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved. . . . . Household spending appears to be rising moderately, and business fixed investment is advancing.” It did acknowledge that “the recovery in the housing sector remains slow.”
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Friday, August 01, 2014
USD FMQ Carries on Growing Ddespite Tapering / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
June's FMQ components have now been released by the St Louis Fed, and it stands at a record $13.132 trillion. As can be seen in the chart above, it is $5.48 trillion more than an extension of the pre-Lehman crisis exponential growth trend. At this point readers not familiar with the construction of FMQ and its purpose may wish to refer to the original paper, here.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 01, 2014
Stock Market Down for the Day and Month with a Bit of Drama / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short.US equity markets ended the month with a selloff. The S&P 500 and the Dow both posted their first monthly declines since January. The popular press has a grab-bag of explanations, most notably Argentina’s default, the chess match against Russia, and concerns that a Fed rate hike might come sooner than expected. The S&P 500 opened at its -0.25% intraday high and sold off in a couple of waves to its -2.00% close at its intraday low. The 1.79% daily trading range was at the 97th percentile for the year, and the daily decline was the fourth worst of 2014. The VIX volatility index was up 27.16%, by far its biggest jump of the year.
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Thursday, July 31, 2014
Stock Market Breakdown! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
SPX fell beneath its 50-day Moving Average and appears to be doing a retest for probable resistance there. The EW pattern suggests that the Intermediate Wave (1) decline may extend to 1900.00 or below.
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Thursday, July 31, 2014
This is Bad News for U.S. Economy and Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Harry Dent writes: Volatile markets are shaking the U.S. economy and geopolitical conflicts are intensifying. This is bad news.
Iraq is falling into civil war, like Syria did after the Arab Spring across North Africa; Israel is invading Gaza; a Malaysia airliner was shot down over Ukraine — by who knows whom; and two Ukrainian fighter jets were shot down by Russian rebels.
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Thursday, July 31, 2014
Fed Sends A Powerful Message To The Stock Market Bears..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
As I've been saying for the past few years, the Fed from Bernanke to Yellen has worked hard at fulfilling the duties of their job description. To keep the economy moving along through their actions regarding the stock market. The key to this long-term bull market has been, is, and always will be low rates. Nothing else. RATES! Ms. Yellen was being paid special attention to today, because the world wanted to know when she would speak out loud the dirty little secret about when rates would begin their cycle up. The market was ready to heave once the word was uttered out loud. It wasn't.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Stock Market Parabolic Collapse - Sowing the Seeds of the Next Depression / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
In their infinity wisdom the Fed thinks they have rescued the economy by inflating asset prices and creating a so called "wealth affect". In reality they have created the conditions for the next Great Depression.
Over the last two years the Fed has increasingly intervened in the market to prevent normal corrective moves. As you can see in the chart below this has allowed the stock market to transition from what could've been a normal bull market into a gigantic parabolic bubble.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
How to Profit from the Russia Ukraine Conflict / Stock-Markets / Russia
Ted Baumann writes: Russia has a history of sacrificing its own cities and people before giving in to the demands and confrontations of dissidents and aggressors. The situation is no different today. And for investors concerned with developing a fortified portfolio of diversified investments, it’s a situation you must pay attention to.
During 1941 to 1945, when it wore the mantle of the Soviet Union, Russia suffered almost 30,000,000 deaths — in combat, through Nazi atrocities and from civilian famine and disease. That was almost one-fifth of its pre-war population. The war was tilted so far out of Russia’s favor that at one point almost four-fifths of its European landmass was under Nazi control.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Greenspan: U.S. Economy Running Out of Buffer; Stock Market to See Significant Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
In an interview with Bloomberg's Betty Liu, former Federal Reserve Chair Dr. Alan Greenspan said the U.S. is "running out of buffer in economy," "lacks fiscal resources," and has "no way to find new revenues."
Greenspan said equity markets will see a decline at some point after surging for the past several years, "The stock market has recovered so sharply for so long, you have to assume somewhere along the line we will get a significant correction."
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Back To Bad Bank Bailouts / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
Oh No Its Cyprus Again
Depositors only want their money back – and that is the only thing they can't have. Cypriots were understandably enraged at the so-called Eurogroup Triumvirate’s decision some 18 months ago to resolve “technical insolvency” of the two largest banks in the country with what are now well known and called “bail-ins”. Cypriot banks were at that time more than just “technically” insolvent and the Triumvirate (the ECB, the European Commission and European Financial Stability fund) could dictate taking away depositors' savings to rescue one of Cyprus's two most-troubled large banks.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Five Industries Worried About Peak Oil / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
The debate over the impact of peak oil has been raging for decades. Although few deny that the end of mass oil consumption is drawing nearer, educated estimates now range between 2020 and 2030. But more important than the timeframe of peak oil are its consequences. Some seek to spell the end of life as we know it, so reliant is the world upon black gold. Others, equally extreme in their views, embrace the news, looking forward to a time when humanity will magically clean up its act.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Stock Market Hunkers Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short. This morning’s release of July Consumer Confidence surprised to the upside, a finding the rather conflicts with the latest Gallup survey of Economic Confidence. But in the real world, the key headlines were about the announcement of sanctions against Russia. The S&P 500 made a shallow arc higher in the morning, hitting its intraday high shortly after the Consumer Confidence report was released. It then sold off in a couple of waves to close at its -0.45% intraday low.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Stocks Bear Market Formation Revealed / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The Stock Market with Elliott Wave Labels from 1693 to Present Day Reveals a Bear Market Formation Since 2000
The following article was adapted from Robert Prechter's June 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, one of the longest-running investment letters in the business, continuously published monthly since 1979.
Figure 1 shows the stock market's waves from 1693 to the present. The circled Roman numerals denote waves of Grand Supercycle degree, the largest complete waves for which stock market data exist.
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Wednesday, July 30, 2014
What the “Steak Bandit” Says About Asset Values / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
Dr. Kent Moors writes: Just stay with me here. This is a story about energy – especially oil.
It begins last Saturday. On a trip to the local supermarket, I saw something you just don’t see every day.
You see, I always do the grocery run. It is one of several clauses that have appeared over time in my marriage contract (no doubt about it, this is one document you need to read before signing!).
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Lindsey Forecast Dow Stocks Bull Market is Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Regular readers will remember the column posted two weeks ago as well as last week’s column confirming the bearish forecast by showing the positive divergence in the VIX which is expected a market tops.
It is important to be aware that George Lindsay admonished his newsletter subscribers that his methods were to be applied only to the Dow Jones Industrials index and not the broader indices. He explained this caveat that using the Dow (“or an even narrower index”) will avoid the constant turn-over of individual components in those broader indices.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Stock Market Down Hard Then Reversal..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
No one reading this article will argue that things are deteriorating technically. We also have fundamental headaches, such as we saw from the real-estate world today. But focusing on technical action, the bears certainly have made some progress. A nice gap down now in the way of the bulls making their task of sustainable upside far more difficult. That said, we started up a hair this morning, only to see the futures fall apart just after the open. A real swoon lower with the S&P 500 falling well over ten points quite rapidly. It looked bad as the 20-day exponential moving average was getting taken out with relative ease.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Will Crashing Commodities Crash the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
There are some analysts out there who maintain that the precipitous decline in commodity prices this year bodes ill for the stock market.Witness for example the dramatic drop in the price of corn. Below is a chart of the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN), a proxy for corn futures. As you can see, corn prices are at multi-year lows right now. This is ironic given that the mainstream media assured us earlier this year that higher ag commodity prices were on the way.
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Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Stock Market Bubble Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Everyone has an opinion as to whether or not US stock indices are in a bubble at the present (July, 2014). Given a moment’s reflection, I came up with ten reasons US stocks are indeed in a bubble.
1) Fed Chair Yellen expressed concern in mid-July (2014) that certain asset classes appeared to be stretched in terms of valuation. The three that she mentioned were social media stocks, biotechs, and small caps. This is a bit disturbing on several levels. First, Fed people are bankers and not economists or investment experts. As bankers, the Fed only knows one thing. That is, they have the power to steal money from a sovereign Treasury and give that money to their banker friends who help the Fed to control the world. Second, Ms. Yellen may indeed be correct.
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Monday, July 28, 2014
New Trading Highs - And That’s a GOOD Thing?? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The past year has seen a long list of “XYZ is at its highest level since XXX” announcements. Some notable examples:
NASDAQ tech stocks are back to 1999 levels
The number of initial public offereings, including companies with no earnings, is back to 1999 levels
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Monday, July 28, 2014
Investors Remain Uncertain As Stock Fluctuate Near Long-Term Highs - Will The Uptrend Extend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
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