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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, October 27, 2014

A Scary Story for Emerging Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: John_Mauldin

The consequences of the coming bull market in the US dollar, which I’ve been predicting for a number of years, go far beyond suppression of commodity prices (which in general is a good thing for consumers – but could at some point threaten the US shale-oil boom). The all-too-predictable effects of a rising dollar on emerging markets that have been propped up by hot inflows and the dollar carry trade will spread far beyond the emerging markets themselves. This is another key aspect of the not-so-coincidental consequences that we will be exploring in our series on what I feel is a sea change in the global economic environment.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 27, 2014

Gambling with Free Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Submissions

Tom Naysburn writes: Financial and derivative trading is an interesting but violent game, full of love, fear, greed, loathing and ecstasy. There you go, I have owned up, and if your still wondering, it is emotional.

When I started in the City of London, apart from all the fun and learning, I was most impressed by a pervasive rule, that “your word was your bond”. Deals were done with counter parties who you may not have personally known, but when the phone went down and the ticket written up, you knew the deal was done. Your word was your bond, and by extension your firm’s word, was coveted at all costs. To rescind on a deal was infinitely more costly than the deal itself and consequently it did not happen. This principle of trust was honourable, good and tremendously impressive and was carried over into everyday dealings. It remains with me to this day.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 27, 2014

Stock Market Mixed Expectations Following Last Week's Bounce - Will Uptrend Extend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,975 and profit target at 1,875, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 27, 2014

Europe Redefines Bank Stress Tests / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The EU and ECB claim they conducts their stress tests and Asset Quality Reviews to restore confidence in the banking sector. That is easier said than done. The problem with the confidence boosting game is that if the tests are perceived as not strong enough, nobody knows which banks to trust anymore. And, on the other hand, if the tests are sufficiently stringent, there’s a genuine risk not many banks are found healthy.

There’s the additional issue of quite a large group of banks having been declared ‘systemic’ by their mother nations, which is of course equal to Too Big To Fail, and, in layman’s terms, ‘untouchable’.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 27, 2014

Federal Reserve to Markets: You're Too Easy! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: John_Rubino

As the end of the latest quantitative easing program approached, everyone was wondering if history would repeat in the form of a stock market correction that terrified the government into another round of debt monetization. And right on cue, volatility surged in late September, sending US stocks down by about 6% by mid-October.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 27, 2014

Stock Market Intermediate Correction Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - Intermediate correction (primary wave IV) underway.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Do Tumbling Buybacks Signal Another Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Mike_Whitney

Since the end of the recession in 2009, investors have borrowed a record amount of money to finance their stock acquisitions. According to the Financial Times, margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) peaked in February, 2014 at $466 billion and has only recently dipped slightly lower. That’s $85 billion more than 2007 at the peak of the bubble. (Below: Margin debt tends to trace the trajectory of the markets fairly closely, although it’s a poor indicator of a market “top”.)

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Has the FTSE Stock Market Index Put in a Major Top? / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market

By: WavePatternTraders

The strong decline on the FTSE over the past few weeks may have come as a surprise to many traders but for us it was expected. It really could not have gone any better for members. I have been warning members for a number of weeks to expect a strong reversal and a crash style move, although we have been preparing for a strong decline; members have also been trading the upside, as before members could trade the downside we need to see the 6900 area tested.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Stock Market Primary IV Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Tony_Caldaro

One impressive rally this week! The week started off at SPX 1887. After a notable pullback to SPX 1882 the market rallied straight up to 1949 by Wednesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 1927 on Wednesday, the market rallied to 1965 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.35%, the NDX/NAZ gained 5.60%, and the DJ World index gained 3.10%. On the economic front things were not as rosy, as positive reports nudged out negative ones. On the uptick: existing home sales, the CPI, the FHFA index and leading indicators. On the downtick: new home sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is FOMC week! Plus we get reports on Q3 GDP, the PCE and the Chicago PMI.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Ebola Has Nothing To Do With The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Austin_Galt

The stock market recently experienced a big fall and a lot of this was attributed to the Ebola virus entering the United States for the first time. This is nonsense. Absolute nonsense! Ebola has nothing to do with the market. It is moves in the market that require a reason. Whatever reason we attribute to a market move is just something to make us feel all warm and fuzzy inside. This time it was Ebola's turn.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 25, 2014

The Gallery of Crowd Behavior: Goodbye Stock Market All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Doug_Wakefield

"Complex Systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks and accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth, May/June 2011 issue of Foreign Affairs.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Stock Market Do Or Die Dead Ahead.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Jack_Steiman

When a market corrects hard there is only one normal way retrace the move back up to unwind oversold conditions and test lost 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. You take weeks to do it, and you do it slowly and gradually without any large gap ups. The S&P 500 now has three gap ups with two of them over a ten handle. Very unusual for a back test and makes you wonder just what's going on. It's basically almost a v bottom for now. On top of that we have MACD crosses on the daily-index charts from very low positions, which, of course, is far from a bearish set-up. With all of this I remain open. I thought for sure there would be another large, hard move lower in the market and that may very well still be the case.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Stock Market Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Sy_Harding

I’ve been around a long time, through many economic and market cycles, and I don’t recall a time when the bull/bear debate had such strong arguments on both sides.

The bullish case:

·         The economic recovery from the Great Recession continues.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 24, 2014

Stock Market Fear and Panic Fractal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Late yesterday afternoon I wrote an email entitled “Panic Cycle Shift.” Make sure you read it if you haven’t yet done so.

Early in September I suggested that the market would have 43 “up days” followed by 43 “down days”. That is still correct. Remember that I am referring to calendar days. Now convert that to market days and the result is 30-31 trading days, depending on the placement of weekends and holidays.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 24, 2014

Stock Market and Reality Disconnected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The behaviour of financial markets these days is frankly divorced from reality, with value-investing banished. Markets have become distorted by Rumfield-knowns such as interest rate policy and "market guidance", and Rumfield-unknowns such as undeclared market intervention by the authorities. On top of these distortions there is remote investing by computers programmed with algorithms and high-frequency traders, unable to make human value-assessments.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 24, 2014

US Stock Market Top Is Now In Sight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Submissions

Dr. David J Harris writes: SUMMARY:

  • In June, the DJIA index signaled that a significant US market top is near and will be reached in the next few weeks or months.
  • In July, a new market timing model calculated that the market top is likely to occur in either, the last two weeks of July, a seven week window covering the last four weeks of October and first three weeks of November, or the four week window covering the last two weeks of December and first two weeks of January.
  • Analysis of previous market tops and market bottoms shows that these windows of opportunity are close to 100% accurate.
  • The market timing model determines that the resulting market drop is likely to be at least 12% and could be as much as 33%.
  • Price projection analysis indicates that a rally is possible in late December and that the likelihood of a market top at year end is slightly greater than the likelihood of a market top in October or November.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 24, 2014

Institutional Investors Fish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Large and/or institutional investors, your pension funds, your market funds, you name them, have one glaringly obvious and immense Achilles heel that they very much prefer not to talk about. That is, they MUST invest their funds, in something, anything, they can’t NOT invest. They are trapped in the game. They have to roll over debt, investments, all the time.

In today’s markets, they can move into Treasuries, as we see bond funds (and undoubtedly others) do recently, and while that’s already a sign of unrest in the ranks, at the same time it exposes the funds. And not only because everyone knows it won’t allow them to meet the targets they must meet. Oil, gas and gold are unattractive alternatives.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 24, 2014

Stock Market Panic Cycle Shift / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

You may recall that earlier this year I had identified several panic cycles. These cycles occur in discreet intervals divisible by 4.3 and multiples of 10.

For example, I had identified the panic Cycle from April 12 to July 5 (86 days) as a panic buying cycle. The next panic buying cycle occurred from August 7 to September 19 (43 days).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, October 24, 2014

SPX Stock Market Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

This afternoon at 1428 hours the SPX peaked and reversed. What is significant about this is that the turn from the bottom was at 1327 hours on October 15, giving us 6 market days in between. The grand total is 43 hours and this may be a print high.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Stock Market Uncertainty Following Sharp Rebound as Investors Take Short-Term Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,975 and profit target at 1,875, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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