Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Next Stock Market Low Important / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2078. After a gap up opening on Monday the SPX rallied to 2105. Then two gap down openings took it down to 2052 by Wednesday. After that the market worked its back up above where it started the week, and ended the week at SPX 2092. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.15%, and the DJ World lost 0.40%. On the economic front positive reports slightly outpaced negative reports. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, the PPI, industrial production, capacity utilization, and long term investor sentiment. On the downtick: export/import prices, consumer sentiment, plus both weekly jobless claims and the treasury deficit increased. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, the NY/Philly FED, and Leading indicators.

Saturday, August 15, 2015

U.S. Stock Markets Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

Reviewing the US stock market picture from a few different angles...

NFTRH been using the Equity Put/Call ratio to gauge pressure on the US stock market for all of 2015. Many people think that anxiety indicators like this and the VIX are contrary indicators (i.e. when they spike you buy the fear in the markets, which often does work well) but when smoothing out CPCE using a moving average (weekly EMA 20 in this case) you get a trend.

The market benefited over long stretches from the calm atmosphere and the down trend in put buying vs. call buying. One explanation is that the market felt safe in mommy and daddy's arms (Bernanke and Yellen, amidst 'peak confidence' in the Fed with a side of Goldilocks).

Friday, August 14, 2015

Will China Yuan Currency Devaluation Cause a Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com David Zeiler writes: Stocks tumbled again early today (Wednesday) after a second round of yuan currency devaluation by the Chinese central bank.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 250 points, or 1.5%, in Wednesday morning trading. That decline followed a 212-point loss (1.2%) Tuesday.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Stock Market 7 Year Crash Cycle - What’s So Special about the Number “7”? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Peter_Degraaf

Everything in life moves in cycles. Seconds, minutes, hours, days, all add up to become part of a cycle.  Some cycles, such as the beating of the heart move fast, while a millennium moves very slow.  This article will draw your attention to a very important 7 year cycle.  (Charts courtesy Stockcharts.com unless indicated).

The number 7 is much more prevalent in nature than most of us realize:  There are 7 oceans, 7 continents, 7 vertebrae in the neck,           

Friday, August 14, 2015

Trading Markets Boot and Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: John_Mauldin

Jared Dillian : In my new office, that I had just rented, after starting my own newsletter business: The Daily Dirtnap.

You see, I had just walked away from a job at Barclays Capital, which had bought the Lehman broker-dealer out of bankruptcy. They had offered me a seat trading ETFs, just like I’d been doing at Lehman. I turned it down. I loved working at Lehman Brothers, but I could not see myself trading ETFs for even one more day.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Will The Stock Market Return to Earth This Summer? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Clif_Droke

What accounts for the equity bull market's stubborn refusal to bend to the bears' will despite a clear lack of internal strength? That's the question investors are asking right now in what has been a grinding, directionless stock market this summer.

The answer to that question is simple to answer, yet complex when you look below its surface. Corporate funds are driving this bull market much more so than direct participation by small retail investors. The pattern that has been established since the start of this year has been a case of wash, rinse, repeat: the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rallies to either a new high or a previous high, then the sellers enter to force stock prices lower. The sellers rarely succeed in pushing the SPX much below its 200-day moving average before the buyers step back in to regain control. The net result of this continual process has been a lateral trading range for much of this year.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Stock Market Crash Potential Over The Next 3-4 Weeks & Possible Final Low In Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Gary_Savage

I’ve said all along that if the Fed didn’t get out of the way and let the market correct naturally it would have serious consequences. Well they have not let the market correct naturally. On the contrary ever since QE3 ended there have been more interventions than ever before, and more aggressive. This has kept the market propped up but it’s also built up extreme complacency. We now have a bubble in central bank confidence. When this bubble pops it’s going to unleash a tsunami of selling as everyone runs to the exits all at once.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Dow Death Cross / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The Dow just saw its 50-day Moving Average cross the 200-day Moving Average in the last day or so.

ZeroHedge reports, “Just as we warned yesterday, unless the Dow can miraculously rally over 17,850, The Dow will close in a Death Cross pattern. This is the first time that the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average since August 2011 (which was followed by a 1300 point swing from high to low in The Dow)...

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Are Stocks the Next Oil (or Uranium, Copper, Silver)? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Gary_Tanashian

See: Oil collapse couldn't come at a worse time for industrySee: 2007, when everyone was convinced of 'Peak Oil' and there were websites named 'Peak Oil', 'Oil Drum', etc. constantly reinforcing the mania.

I remember being away on business one day in 2007, with nothing better to do in my hotel room than watch the congressional debates about 'peak oil' and what to do about the evil speculators that were driving prices up. I enjoy watching a good mania as much as the next guy. I realized that what we were seeing was 'Peak Hysteria' with respect to this phenomenon. I thought, 'Yup, Prechter's right'.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Will the Malaysian Ringgit and Stock Market goes Terminal Velocity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

It is a known fact that one of the hottest topics of discussion among Malaysians for past few months has been our Ringgit. Thanks to our current economic debacle, it helped raised our awareness of our economic situation. Despite the numerous propaganda engaged by our authorities assuring us of our economy’s resilience, it still failed to alleviate our suspicions. Cliché like high level of international reserves, current account surplus, solid domestic financial system and Ringgit reflecting our economic fundamentals were often used. Is it true that our economy is really that resilient and solid? This article aims to look into the current state of affairs of the Malaysian economy and also how it affects the Ringgit.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Stocks Bear Market Investors Nightmare! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Ugly Outlook – Global Economics, Quantitative Easing and Equities - A take on the global economy and equities markets that paints a simple and clear pictures I think.

The DJIA index has recorded seven consecutive down days in a row!  These 7 distribution days are a sign that many institutions are taking profits or establishing losses.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Dow Stocks Index Makes it Seven / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market

Intermediate trend - SPX may have started an intermediate correction

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Stock Market Bubbles: What the Media Misunderstands / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com D.R. Barton, Jr writes: Since the last bona fide financial bubble, the real estate and credit bubble of 2007 to 2009, it seems like every time anyone pays a few pennies too much for a stock, there is a flock of analysts ready to start crowing "bubble!" like so many birds on a wire.

I believe that any pundit who calls a sector or market a "bubble" when they really mean "fundamentally or technically overbought" should be banished from pontificating until the real bubble appears.

That's no hollow gripe: These talking heads can do serious damage with their flawed analyses. Regular investors who heed their bad advice can end up prematurely exiting what are in fact strong, lucrative positions, leaving billions in upside on the table.

Monday, August 10, 2015

Stock Market Crash, Bear Market Rally in Gold? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Brad_Gudgeon

I'm attaching three charts today: One chart of the daily SPY shows the parallel between Friday and March 3, 2015. The next one, shows where it could go as far as price and time is concerned, and the third shows the weekly chart of the SPX and what I believe may be the eventual conclusion of the correction into October of this year.

Astro-cycle-wise, we have not yet seen the 100 TD low, commonly called the 20 week low, last seen on March 11, 2015. As of Friday we are at TD 104. The 100 TD low usually comes within about a 10% variance giving it about 10 TD's on either side (the longest I've seen was at about 115/116 TD's ).

Monday, August 10, 2015

Bogus Economic Statistics - China About To Make History Again / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: John_Rubino

Any discussion of China has to open with the now-widely-understood fact that the numbers it reports are not to be trusted. Knowing this makes it easy to dismiss claims of high and consistently-on-target GDP growth, for instance, as a combination of government-directed borrowing and spending, and simple fabrication.

But how to handle negative numbers? When a serial fabricator admits that things are bad and getting worse, that would seem to imply that someone at or near the top has concluded that either the facts can no longer be obscured or that there’s an advantage in creating negative expectations.

Monday, August 10, 2015

Stock Investors Shelter from These Storms in the Distance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: ...

MoneyMorning.com Michael E. Lewitt writes: In South Florida, we call the dog days of summer the "mean season", as vicious thunderstorms move over the Everglades every afternoon and attack the east coast with lightning strikes and blinding downpours. We keep our fingers crossed that the storms won't morph hurricanes that can sweep the ocean over the land and cause catastrophic destruction.

After a period of intense hurricane activity in the early 2000s, it's been ten years since we've been hit by any serious storms, and we are being told that strong El Nino conditions will likely protect us again this season. But we know that sooner or later our luck will run out, and we will be back in the eye of dangerous winds and storm surges. And, at least for a moment, we'll wish we lived somewhere other than in paradise.

Monday, August 10, 2015

Qatar Stock Exchange Index (QE) Bullish Wedge Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: MarketsToday

A bullish wedge formation is setting up in the chart of the Qatar Exchange Index (QE). Taking into account the pattern to date, a breakout is confirmed on a move above 12,043.7. However, there could be a lower signal develop as the pattern may need a little while longer to progress. At this point an aggressive signal would be given on a move above Wednesday’s high at 11,836.8.

Sunday, August 09, 2015

Stock Market 4 Year Rest or P4 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2104. It ticked up to SPX 2106 to start the week, then traded down to 2087 on Monday. A rally started Monday afternoon carrying the SPX to 2113 by Wednesday. Then the market pulled back to end the week at SPX 2078. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.55%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.60%, and the DJ World was down 0.9%. On the economic front positive reports outpaced negative ones. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, construction spending, factory orders, ISM services, and consumer credit. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, the ADP, monthly Payrolls, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week will be highlighted by Industrial production, Retail sales and the PPI.

Sunday, August 09, 2015

Stock Market Crash - The NASDAQ's Days are Numbered Too... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Clive_Maund

When you attend the funeral of a dearly departed friend or relative it is appropriate to show due respect by wearing black. Similarly, in this update on the Tech Sector, which will very soon be on its deathbed, it is appropriate that we show due propriety and respect for the seriousness of the situation by presenting our analysis on somber black charts.

Some investors may have been fooled into thinking that because the NASDAQ Composite index, whose 1-year chart is shown below, is still in an uptrend and recently made new highs, that all is well with the sector, especially as it is outperforming the broad market S&P500 index which has been treading water all this year in a tight range, as shown on its 1-year chart a little further down the page, but as we will see on the long-term charts, all is not well at all, and both these indices are now set up to drop hard or crash.

Saturday, August 08, 2015

Stocks, Bonds, USD: What Interest Rate Hike? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The US July jobs report was strong, or at least clearly better than the June report. 215K in NFP, 2.1% average hourly earnings y/y, unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3% and the participation rate also unchanged at 62.6%. The big rally in the US dollar was completely eroded, with EURUSD clawing back all of the 120-pips it lost immediately after the release. The only currencies not to end higher against the USD were CHF (due to renewed SNB jawboning), CAD (disappointing CAD jobs) and GBP and SEK.