Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, August 09, 2015
Stock Market Crash - The NASDAQ's Days are Numbered Too... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
When you attend the funeral of a dearly departed friend or relative it is appropriate to show due respect by wearing black. Similarly, in this update on the Tech Sector, which will very soon be on its deathbed, it is appropriate that we show due propriety and respect for the seriousness of the situation by presenting our analysis on somber black charts.
Some investors may have been fooled into thinking that because the NASDAQ Composite index, whose 1-year chart is shown below, is still in an uptrend and recently made new highs, that all is well with the sector, especially as it is outperforming the broad market S&P500 index which has been treading water all this year in a tight range, as shown on its 1-year chart a little further down the page, but as we will see on the long-term charts, all is not well at all, and both these indices are now set up to drop hard or crash.
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
Stocks, Bonds, USD: What Interest Rate Hike? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
The US July jobs report was strong, or at least clearly better than the June report. 215K in NFP, 2.1% average hourly earnings y/y, unemployment rate unchanged at 5.3% and the participation rate also unchanged at 62.6%. The big rally in the US dollar was completely eroded, with EURUSD clawing back all of the 120-pips it lost immediately after the release. The only currencies not to end higher against the USD were CHF (due to renewed SNB jawboning), CAD (disappointing CAD jobs) and GBP and SEK.
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
Nasdaq Monthly Not A Pretty Picture... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
One thing that has kept me from getting ridiculously bullish over the past several months, and something I have discussed quite frequently, is the look of the index-monthly charts, from the Nasdaq to just about everyone one else. Extremely elevated both in price and on those momentum oscillators. They have stayed overbought for such a long time that after a while you tend to try or even want to pretend they don't exist. If you looked at them head on every day you'd feel like you would never want to own another stock until they've completely unwound themselves. Scary looking is putting it mildly. So we look at the recent selling and wonder if those monthly charts are finally starting to hit the market. That the news out there is meaningless noise, good or bad. That the only thing that matters is quite likely those monthly charts.
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Friday, August 07, 2015
China Spending 11.6 Million Annual Incomes Per Day Propping Up Stocks / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
For years now China has been heralded as an economic miracle that will drive the global economy towards growth and eventually eclipse the US as THE superpower in the world.
This theme was driven by the view that somehow China had obtained the magic balance between free-market capitalism and Central Planning. Globally analysts breathlessly talked about China’s insatiable demand for commodities as its economy grew by double digits for three decades straight.
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Friday, August 07, 2015
One of the Most Useful Stock Markets Reports You Will Ever Read / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Would foreknowledge of the news put you ahead of the investment crowd?
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
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Thursday, August 06, 2015
Stock Market Swinging Wildly.....No Change....Sentiment Still Unwinding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
It's a fact we've all gotten used to. At least I hope you have by now. Today is yet another day that makes no sense, thus it does. We had three days of poor action, and then after hours last night the futures were falling hard, mostly due to a very poor earnings report from Dow leader The Walt Disney Company (DIS). An unexpected miss with a bad outlook for the rest of this year in to 2016. The stock crushed, and I mean crushed, after hours. Futures were falling hard. It looked like another huge down day was dead ahead. We wake up this morning to a large gap up, even though DIS actually worsened. Go figure! As we've surely gotten used to, we saw the highs of the day erode over time, but with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq holding on to some gains.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Stock Market Margin Debt - Don't Let This Nonsense Number Fool You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Dr. David Eifrig writes: Some people just want to see the worst in a stock market...
They like to take every fact or statistic they can find and twist it into an omen of doom.
We don't work that way. In my Retirement Trader newsletter, we look at the facts, talk about them, and draw simple conclusions about what's possible.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Crisis Meets Opportunity: See the Evidence, make up your Own Mind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Dear Investor,
Over the next few days, we're inviting you to watch a recent live talk given by Elliott Wave International chief market analyst and former Merrill analyst Steve Hochberg to a packed audience of some of San Francisco's top independent investors.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Another Stock Market Extreme: IPOs' Lack of Accounting Standards - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
by Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst
Last month at the San Francisco Money Show event for investors and traders, Steve Hochberg, Elliott Wave International's Chief Market Analyst, addressed the audience with a series of eye-opening insights.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Fed Lunacy is to Blame for the Coming Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
This week John Hussman's pondering about the state of our markets is as clear and concise as it's ever been. He starts off by describing the difference between an economy operating at a low level versus a high level. He's essentially describing a 2% GDP economy versus a 4% GDP economy. We have been stuck in a low level economy since 2008. And there is one primary culprit for the suffering of millions - The Federal Reserve and their Wall Street Bank owners. They are the reason incomes are stagnant, the labor participation rate is at 40 year lows, savers can only earn .25% on their savings, and consumers have been forced further into debt to make ends meet. Meanwhile, corporate America and the Wall Street banks are siphoning off record profits, paying obscene pay packages to their executives, buying off the politicians in Washington to pass legislation (TPP) designed to enrich them further, and arrogantly telling the peasants to work harder.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Submerging Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
This week's commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index.
The July 14 commentary mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why "a tradable low is very close". Indeed, last week's low was seen that day. The next forecast-high generated by the Hybrid Lindsay model is expected late in the week of August 10 or early during the week of August 17.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Why This Stocks Bubble Is Actually WORSE Than the Internet Tech Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
I’ve been invited to speak on many media outlets lately, hammering on and on about how this is another bubble. Worse, an artificial one!
A bubble occurs naturally when market forces converge. Trends come together and make the markets so hot that everyone starts piling in.
But it’s one thing when investors speculate on the fundamentals like demographics, rising technology, and falling interest rates. For example, like in 1925 to 1929, and 1995 to 1999.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
I’m Ready for a Stocks Bear Market. Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Increasingly concerned about the markets, I’ve taken more aggressive action than in 2007, the last time I soured on the equity markets. Let me explain why and what I’m doing to try to profit from what may lie ahead.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Is This Stocks Bull Market Summit? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The primary uptrend in common stocks began in March 2009, so this bull-market is now over 6 years old. The bull-market on Wall Street was unleashed by the Federal Reserve's unprecedented QE program and it is not a coincidence that its momentum waned around the same time America's central bank stopped buying bonds.
You will recall that over the past several months, we repeatedly stated that the stock market's breadth was getting narrower and that not all sectors were participating in the festivities. Accordingly, we positioned our managed portfolios in the strongest areas and sectors of the market.
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
The Troika Loan Shark Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
July has turned out to be a very volatile month for stocks, whether Asia, Europe, US, or worldwide. Every time it appeared that something from the real world of finance and economics might create at least another 10% “correction” from all time high readings in US stocks, “someone” was there to make certain that investors and traders - especially in Europe, Japan, and the US - saw no lasting impact from the events in China and Greece with their own investments.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Stock Market SPX Triggers Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX has now crossed below both the 50-day Moving Average and the 2-hour mid-Cycle support at 2097.72. SPX is back on an aggressive sell that becomes a confirmed sell below the 200-day Moving Average at 2069.43.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Stock Market High Risk Area? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
I have often commented how important the trending of the Institutional "core holdings" were. If you think about it ... here is a group that has millions of dollars available for research and who pick what they consider to be the best, strongest, and safest stocks to buy.
So the trending of their group of "core holdings" says more about what the market will do then most of the other indexes.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Stock Market Pullback at Hand, Gold About to Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2015
The stock market likely put in a failing 'b' wave top Friday at SPX 2114. The attached charts show potential down as low as SPX 1920 for the coming decline into the expected August 11, 2015 low to as high as 2010. The actual 40 week low is due on August 7, so I don't know if August 7 to 11 creates a double bottom reversal or not. Usually, these types of bottoms are spike bottoms.
The last 20 week low in March ran 7 TD's down to its low. The rise last week reminds me of the late Nov/early Dec topping pattern (only that time it made a new high while this one has failed) and it projects down to August 11 and SPX 1930 based on the percentage differences, this one being 1.69 times as potent.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Stock Market Report: Three’s a Crowd / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX
The SPX still appears to be inside the suspected ending diagonal pattern that has been going on from the Oct 2014 lows (aka Bullard lows). The overall look still appears to support the idea of a bearish wedge, or what Elliotticians call an ending diagonal, the back and forth whip is classic behavior for such a pattern, both the bulls and bears get taken to the cleaners as the market is likely ending the trend from the Oct 2011 lows. Once wave 3 or C is completed we should then embark on the largest decline since 2011.
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Monday, August 03, 2015
Stock Market Critical Week Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend – SPX may have started an intermediate correction
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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