Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, February 19, 2016
Stocks, Commodities, Bonds, Gold and Currencies Weekly Views / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy makers), market indicators (VIX, Equity Put/Call, Gold-Silver ratio, Sentiment, Participation, etc.) and other views beneath the surface of things. So much so that I sometimes forget that people might like to see simple nominal charting as a frame of reference.
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Friday, February 19, 2016
Support for Stock Market Indexes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The recent downward slide for North American indexes appears to have found a floor.
After declining for much of the last six weeks, the key U.S. indexes have all reached their 200-week moving averages (m/a) and stopped.
Only the commodity-heavy TSX went right through its 200-week m/a and settled on the lower support level of 12,000.
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Friday, February 19, 2016
How Rogue Market Price Spikes Can Make You Money / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
Stocks are taking a breather today from the recent rally off our cycle lows and support level. As explained and shown in this morning’s video we are expecting stocks to stall out over the next 5 days and become choppy.
Any weakness in stocks means money will flow into metals and that is what happened on Thursday afternoon.
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Thursday, February 18, 2016
How Investors Can Leverage the Most Powerful Force in the Universe / Stock-Markets / Investing 2016
Andrew Gordon writes: Investing in the early days of an initial public offering (IPO) isn’t what it used to be.
Last year’s IPOs are a shining example. Shares of tech companies that IPO’d in 2015 averaged around a 40% drop from their first-day closing price to current prices.
The kind of gains you would have gotten from Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) (over 35,000% since its IPO), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) (over 53,000%) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) (nearly 16,000%) are nowhere to be found among newly minted public companies.
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Thursday, February 18, 2016
Stock Market Rally is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The short-covering rally in SPX appears to be broken. Confirmation of the reversal is close by, at Intermediate-term support/resistance at 1911.56.
The peak in the cash market was at 14:21 hours yesterday. The rally was 21.5 market hours in length after a 56 hour decline. SPX is now going into a Wave C panic decline that may last between 4.3 and 6.14 days. Wave A will look like a picnic by comparison.
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Thursday, February 18, 2016
Donald Trump is Scaring Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Oaktree's Howard Marks spoke with Stephanie Ruhle and David Westin on Bloomberg TV's "Bloomberg <GO>" on how the presidential election and Trump are scaring investors. He also discussed his bet on Jeffrey Gundlach's upstart investment firm, DoubleLine Capital.
On how the presidential election is impacting markets, Marks said: "They're scaring the hell out of people." Of Trump he added: "Donald says, the Chinese are killing us. The Mexicans are killing us. The Japanese are killing us. But we're going to get the jobs back. And I think that people tend to believe him…The others compete to be equally fearful and dramatic."
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Stocks Have Taken Out Critical Support… Prepare Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
One of the most critical lines to watch is the 12-month moving average for stocks.
Historically this line has served well as a proxy for determining if stocks were in a bull or bear market. When stocks rallied above this line, they were in a bull market. When they fell below this line, they were in a bear market.
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Thursday, February 18, 2016
Strong Stock Market Session with Strong Underlying Technicals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices had a big day today. They gapped up big, pulled back early on, and then stair-stepped their way higher all day, until they reached the session highs with an hour to go. They pulled back late in the session, and bounced in the last 15-20 minutes to finish with a very strong gain on the session.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 257.42 at 16,453.84, 30 points off its high. The S&P 500 was up 31.24 to 1926.82, 4 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 94.77 to 41.99.10.
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Thursday, February 18, 2016
Stock Market Exploring Possibilities....Sentiment... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
hroughout 2015 I felt the market was in a topping phase due to complacency along with massive, negative divergences on those key, monthly index charts. The market didn't fall much in 2015, but it refused to have sustainable upside action. In the end, the markets were down slightly for the year. It took all of 2015 for the market to finally stop its upward thrusts.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Wealthbuilder Stock Market Brief / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Time for steady state economics to be introduced.
As a student of economics and monetary theory one of my greatest heroes is M. King Hubbert.
He was an American scientist born in Texas in 1903. He was a man of great integrity,
intellectual honesty and courage. He was a visionary who believed in the power of ideas
and the need to use intellectual rigor to analyze and manage change.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Perverse Sort of Stock Market Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
This has been a difficult retracement to follow. Here is the detail of what has happened.
The first Wave down from 1947.20 is clearly a Wave (a), since does not have a five wave structure. What fooled me was that I had assumed that Wave [b] was really a larger degree Wave B, which meant that Wave C of (3) would begin at 1881.60. Instead, it was the final wave [c] of A.
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Wednesday, February 17, 2016
FTSE Bounce to Prove Brief / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
The bounce in capital markets across the globe amid speculation of expanded stimulus from the European Central Bank and looser lending conditions in China may have sent risk assets and equities higher, but the positive sentiment is unlikely to last. Worsening fundamental conditions in the United Kingdom combined with a weak external environment have contributed to the sizable decline in FTSE 100 equity index over the last several months, with the benchmark dipping into a bear market last month following a widespread market selloff. A number of lingering issues continue to plague the index, keeping the pressure on performance high as concerns about the drag from energy, softer industrial activity, and another bout of regional bank weakness are offset gains from a more competitive Pound.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Very Solid Stock Market Session and Nice Start to the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
The stock market indices started off the week with a bang. They ran hard all day, with a huge gap down early morning, bounced, consolidated late afternoon, and then came on again right at the close to finish at the highs for the day. It couldn't be a better day.
Net on the day, the Dow was up 222.57 at 16,196.41, at the tick high for the day. The S&P 500 was up 30.80 to 1895.58, within pennies of its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 85.14 to 4104.33, also at the tick high for the day.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
The 2016 Financial Market Meltdown and The Golden Age / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016
The majority of the world’s stock indices topped out this month on Monday, February 1st, 2016 after a strong oversold technical bounce in price. Several indexes are now in the process of their first re-test of those multi-month lows which should act as support.
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My belief is that the FED will abandon its plan to raise short-term rates in March 2016, given the “economic global contraction” in economic data including the Baltic Dry Index and troubled banking systems in the European Union.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
SPX Rolling Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
SPX went on a low volume ramp over the extended weekend, topping out near 1895.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at midnight. Since then it has eased down near Short-term resistance at 1884.20. Today is a double Pivot Day in the Cycles Model, suggesting a strong reversal may be happening.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Euro Bond Crisis Returns As Germany Pushes Euro Sovereign Debt Bail-in Clause / Stock-Markets / Eurozone Debt Crisis
European Banks holding European sovereign debt may have to take haircuts and be part of bail in plans should that same debt default, according to a plan being pursued by German government advisers. In another attempt to shelter German tax payers from the largess and excess of fellow European neighbouring countries’ national banks, the move could trigger a run on billions of euro of sovereign debt of said banks. In an article penned by the Telegraph’s Ambrose-Evans Pritchard, one of the council’s dissenting members describes the plan as the “fastest way to break up the Eurozone”.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Latest Declines Suggest Stock Market Buying Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
For most of this year, stock markets around the world have been under pressure as the majority of investors are starting to take profits and prepare for the inevitable tightening cycle that is now expected for global interest rates. Of course, increases in interest rates will take some time to actually filter through the market but an ounce of expectation is worth a pound of action in the financial markets -- and this is why stock prices are currently falling through important psychological support levels.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Stocks Dive as Confidence in Fed Fades / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
“Investors are losing confidence in central bank policies. (They) have done all they can do, and these policies may not improve economic growth or may not support financial markets.” — Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial
Zero rates and QE have stopped working and that has investors worried. Very worried.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Central Banks Fool The Markets Again, But Only For A Little While / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
Over the weekend, the following happened: China’s exports and imports fell by 11.2% and 18.8%, respectively, numbers which, for a trading power, are nothing short of apocalyptic. Japan’s Q4 GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4% which, for a country that had spent the previous three years borrowing and printing record amounts of new currency, is an extraordinary admission of failure. And US allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia appeared to be invading Syria, putting them — and by implication the US — in direct confrontation with Russia.
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Monday, February 15, 2016
Three Simple Steps to Beat a 'Rigged' Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
Alexander Green writes: