SPX has stopped rallying after a little more than 19.5 days from its February 11 low. Not much more can be said until it breaks the uptrend line at 1975.00. Most rallies of this nature usually take less time than this, so we can say that it is unusually long.

VIX is off the lows. Chances are good that this is the final low, but no confirmation is given until it surpasses the 18.93 line again.

TNX remains glued to its high, since this is likely the main catalyst for the rally. Failures to deliver are at multi-year highs, suggesting those shorting Treasuries are hanging on to their shorts, regardless of the additional fees for their FTD. They have bigger fish to fry.

In any case, the rally appears over. We just need to see the reversal.

The reason I say that is because the USD has been declining the past couple of days, so it has not been a net positive for stocks.

USD/JPY has had a weak retracement, but not proportional to the SPX rally.

This has been an unusual week, to say the least.

Regards,

Tony

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