Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

SPX Challenges the Upper Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX appears to have made its high on Friday at 2169.05, 17.2 days from its June 27 low. This morning, the Premarket is challenging the upper trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top at 2160.00. Once a reversal beneath the trendline is evident, I will comment on what may be expected next.

ZeroHedge reports, “After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. “

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

More on the ‘Breadth Thrust’ and Stock Market Internals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Tanashian

NFTRH 404 deviated from the usual format of widespread, in-depth coverage of US and global markets, precious metals and commodities in order to focus on two main themes.  One was a view of building short-term risks in the gold market [possibly pending new rally highs] and the other of a developing bullish phase in the US stock market.  We reproduce part of that segment here…

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

VIX Falling....Volatility Falling....Understanding Stock Market Froth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

Let's understand what's happening with the VIX. For quite a long time, many, many months, the VIX kept finding closing support at 13.00 or higher. We would see some intraday spiked in to the 12's, but ultimately we would find a reading that closed above 13.00. This would mark the end of an uptrend for very short term. The VIX would then spike a few points, and sometimes more than just a few points, and, thus, we'd see the market fall back down. The bears could always count on a 13.00 close, or higher, as a time to get short. Now we're dealing with three consecutive days with the VIX closing below 13.00. A change of trend that occurred once we were able to, eventually, close above S&P 500 2134. With the VIX this low, the market does something else traders don't love. It grinds.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Christine Lagarde on Turkish Markets, Global Banking and Politics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Bloomberg

In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg Television’s Tom Keene, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde discusses a range of issues including Turkish markets, the challenges around global banking and money laundering, the Italian bank crisis and political turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Keep an Eye on ‘Bitcoin’ as the Next ‘Financial Crisis’ Starts! / Stock-Markets / Bitcoin

By: Chris_Vermeulen

‘Bitcoin’ is on a tear away rally. Its’ performance, over the last year, has been outstanding and it has outperformed most ‘asset classes’, by a wide margin. It is probably the only asset class which beats out both gold and silver, in 2016. Why is it shooting into outer space?

Monday, July 18, 2016

Record Bond and Stock Prices Sending the Same Message / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Michael_Pento

The S&P 500 is trading near an all-time record high. But investors should not take this as the all clear signal. According to most indicators, the market is now more overvalued than ever before.

The Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio analyzes the value of the S&P 500 Index with the 10-year average of "real" (inflation-adjusted) earnings as the denominator to determine if the market as a whole is overvalued or undervalued. Today this ratio sits at 26.73, close to the short-term high of 27.2 seen in 2007 and well above its historic average of around 16.

Monday, July 18, 2016

Stocks Remain At All-Time High, Will They Continue Even Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, July 18, 2016

Stock Market Minor Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is near its all-time high

SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 is now challenging the 2135 high.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Saturday, July 16, 2016

How Long Can Buybacks Continue To Support A Market Which Is Standing On A Fundamentally Flawed Premise? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gordon_T_Long

FRA Co-Founder Gordon T.Long and Jeffrey Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investment Partners discuss earnings, the Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen and the falling credibility of central banks.

As Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners, Jeff spearheads the investment research efforts while providing close contact to Alhambra’s client base. Jeff joined Atlantic Capital Management, Inc., in Buffalo, NY, as an intern while completing studies at Canisius College. After graduating in 1996 with a Bachelor’s degree in Finance, Jeff took over the operations of that firm while adding to the portfolio management and stock research process.

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Understanding The Stock Market Bull After Fink Speaks... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

This has been one crazy market for quite some time now. The endless overall up trend has been with us for seven plus years. The last two years have been a time for consolidation in to the teeth of some very bad news. When bad news can't sell a market you understand it means that it's simply basing and waiting on the right combination of news to try the next leg up. It finally came in the form some good employment numbers. Job creation reached a level that allowed the bulls to race onward and upward. Prior to that report, we were dealing with a series of bad reports on the Jobs Report, ISM Manufacturing Report, and ISM Services numbers. The market simply couldn't find a catalyst. Earnings were on the decline as well. The market bears tried to get the market down as bad news kept hitting from everywhere, but they just couldn't get the job done consistently. They'd get a nice down move, but couldn't seem to ever follow through. The bulls would come in and save the day.

Friday, July 15, 2016

The Fed is Terrified… Are You Ready For What’s Coming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

Central Bankers are absolutely terrified.

Case in point, yesterday Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester suggested that the “next step” in monetary policy is “Helicopter money.”

Friday, July 15, 2016

Capitalism Has Entered a New Era—and Historic Stock Market Investing Returns Are Gone Forever / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Mauldin

We live in interesting times. We continue to see repercussions from Brexit. The other major players—in Europe, China, and Japan—seem to be in a downward spiral. Not to mention, the bubble-like issues we see in Canada and other parts of the world.

The world is quickly getting far more complex… something that central banks’ (and everybody else’s!) models can’t capture. We are tiptoeing into a period of enormous uncertainty. 

Friday, July 15, 2016

The Soaring Risk of Flying in Bernanke's Helicopter / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Doug_Wakefield

"Although the term 'helicopter money' is very frequently used in economics, it is doubtful whether such a policy will bring the results people really want. The following example shows why.

Let us assume that the Bank of Japan one day mailed 1 million yen in new bank notes to every Japanese citizen. The person who finds 1 million in his mailbox will probably feel very happy at that moment, because he things he is richer by that amount. Thproblem is what happens next.

Friday, July 15, 2016

The Broad Stock Market, Helicopters and Gold / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

There has been a stunning post Brexit turnaround in the markets, says technical analyst Clive Maund. Far from leading to chaos, the markets have taken it in their stride, and are now rising in anticipation of "helicopter money."

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Stock Market Exuberant New All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: James_Quinn

The stock market has reached new all-time highs this week, just two weeks after plunging over the BREXIT result. The bulls are exuberant as they dance on the graves of short-sellers and the purveyors of doom. This is surely proof all is well in the country and the complaints of the lowly peasants are just background noise. Record highs for the stock market must mean the economy is strong, consumers are confident, and the future is bright.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

New Stock Market Highs Correlate to $57 Trillion in Printed Global Currency Units / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the relationship of rising money velocity, money printing and new stock market highs.

When people use the term "money," it usually refers to a unit of currency used in the transacting of business and commerce. A woman works cleaning houses for a week and gets paid in a number of currency units and then goes to the supermarket and exchanges those units for food or diapers or medicine. What is left over at the end of the pay period is called "savings," which are allowed to accumulate receiving a modest rate of interest. Around the globe this weekend, a vast number of banks are offering negative returns on savings, such that keeping one's accumulated units of currency in the bank is penalized. The objective of this monetary experiment is to combat the global problem of deflation. Despite $57 trillion of new currency units having been printed since the 2009 financial crisis, global growth has been tepid at best because the velocity of "money" has remained moribund and since all collateral underpinning this massive global debt must not be allowed to depreciate, the central banks have been allowed to engage in a massive, coordinated reflation designed to jumpstart "money" velocity.

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Stocks Bear Market Crash Apocalypse Resolves to New All Time Highs! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market commentariat that had convinced themselves all year that a stocks bear market or worse a crash was always imminent, tending to reach their most vocal fever pitched cry's of doom each time stocks bottomed and where BrExit is concerned, well that was expected to be the icing on the bear cake, that if it happened would surely herald an stock market apocalypse. Though of course most never saw brexit coming because the pollsters, markets and bookies ALL got the EU Referendum outcome WRONG which meant that WHEN it happened the expectations of doom reached a new level of intensity. Worse still because FEAR SELLS the usually clueless mainstream press liberally regurgitated and magnified the doom utterance of financial sales industry which ensured few were in a position to capitalise on the subsequent stock rally.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Italy on the Brink of a Full Blown Banking Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Joseph_T_Salerno

As several articles over the past few days have indicated (here, here, here and here), Italy is on the brink of a full-blown banking crisis. Bad debts, or "non-performing loans," held by the banking sector total  360 billion euros, which is a remarkable 17 percent of all the outstanding bank loans in Italy and equal to about one-fifth of the annual Italian GDP. It is also many times the level of bad debt held by Italian banks at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. Since the beginning of 2016, prices of bank stocks have decreased by more than 50%. In the case of Italy's oldest and most troubled bank, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, its share price has declined more than 75%. It doesn't help that the Italian economy is struggling mightily to recover from the last financial crisis and is still 8% smaller than it was in 2008 and roughly the same size as it was at the end of the twentieth century.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Hong Kong, Signapore, and India Emerging Stocks Bull Markets / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: Tony_Caldaro

With the recent resurgence in the US indices, and the potential new leg up in the 2009 bull market, took a look at the foreign indices we track. The objective was to find indices that had dramatic selloffs during 2015-2016, and appear to have completed bear markets. Of the twenty indices we track three in particular look the best longer term.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Stocks Bull Market Crash Apocalypse Resolves to New All Time Highs - Again! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market commentariat that had convinced themselves all year that a stocks bear market or worse a crash was always imminent, tending to reach their most vocal fever pitched cry's of doom each time stocks bottomed and where BrExit is concerned, well that was expected to be the icing on the bear cake, that if it happened would surely have herald an stock market apocalypse. Though of course most never saw it coming because the pollsters, markets and bookies ALL got the EU Referendum outcome WRONG which meant that WHEN it happened the expectations of doom reached a new level of intensity as their worst expectations appeared to finally becoming manifest. Worse still because FEAR SELLS the usually clueless mainstream press liberally regurgitated and magnified the utterance of financial sales industry so as to ensure few would ever be in a position to capitalise on the stock rally.