Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Stocks Trending Higher on Better than Expected Economic Statistics / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Election years that fall in the 8th year of the Decennial pattern call for consolidation in the early part of the year followed by a strong finish. But the 6-yr cycle which is scheduled to bottom in late Summer/early Fall could also play a restraining role, followed by an eventual bull market top in 2009-2010.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The intermediate consolidation came to an end on 3/17. The index is now in a cautious uptrend which probably has a little farther to go.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Equities Over Optimistic Earnings Estimates as US Heads for Recession / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Words from the (investment) wise - Part 1
USA Today: Warren Buffett – Economy in a recession, will be worse than feared
“Warren Buffett, the world's richest person, said Monday that the US economy is in a recession that will be more severe than most people expect.
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Investor Sentiment Improves on Worst of Credit Crisis Behind Us / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“The world's favorite season is the spring. All things seem possible in May,” said Edwin Way Teal.
And so it seemed during the past week as we witnessed a further improvement in investor sentiment and risk appetite, supported by the viewpoint that the worst of the credit crisis might be behind us. The end result by Friday's close was strong gains for stock markets (with the Volatility Index at its lowest level since December), a further recovery of the US dollar, a sell-off of most commodities, and a weak undertone in government bond markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Stocks- Sell in May and Go Away? / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This weeks newsletter looks at the stock markets trend during the summer months and especially in light of the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage. Meaning to sell stocks during May with a view to buying them back again some time during September. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Stock Market Technical's Deteriorating Suggesting Downtrend Next Week / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Burk
The good news is: All of the major indices hit multi month highs last week.
Short Term - During the rally off the January lows new highs on the NYSE declined.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Non-Farm Payrolls- Lies, damned lies and statistics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The quote has been attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and popularized by Mark Twain. It could be applied to today's Employment Report . The press headline reads, “ Nonfarm payrolls down 20,000; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls.” Folks, these numbers have been massaged to get the “right” outcome.
For example, in April, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased by 306,000 to 5.2 million. This level was 849,000 higher than in April 2007. These individuals indicated that they were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. 5.2 million workers comprise 3.8% of the alleged workforce.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 02, 2008
Equities Uptrend Weakened by Surging Crude Oil / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
In just about the past 24 hours, crude oil prices have rocketed from a corrective low of $110.30 to this AM's intraday high at $116.18 so far- just a 5% gain, that's all! So far, the rally in oil, an ETF of which is the US Oil Trust (AMEX: USO), has recovered about 60% of the prior decline from the all-time high at $119.93 to yest.'s low at $110.30. If June crude hurdles and sustains above $116.20, then I will be expecting a retest of $119.93.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Financial Stocks Break Out / Stock-Markets / Banking Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
This morning the Financial Select SPDR (AMEX: XLF) broke out of a 6-week bullish coil pattern that represents the digestion period after the initial upmove from the 3/17 low at 22.1 to the 3/24 high at 27.37 (+23%). With today's surge out of the coil, the XLF has started a new upleg that should propel the financial index towards a test of resistance at 27.80-28.00 next, on the way to an optimal target zone of 29.50. Only a break below 26.40 will wreck the developing upside follow-through from the March low. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Bearish Stock Market Wedge Patterns- Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today I want to talk about wedges (not wedgies). Especially the bearish
kind of wedge. We have them in a lot of indexes, namely in the SPX, the NDX
and the EEM. Bearish wedges are continuation patterns of an existing trend.
A wedges is formed by a counter-trend correction and it leans against the
prevailing advance or decline. In this case, a rising wedge is bearish and
a falling wedge is bullish. The wedge pattern usually retraces one-half to
two-thirds of the prevailing move before failing or reversing. Volume
usually contracts during the formation of the wedge, while increasing after
the break down or breakout. My source is John Murphy's book, Technical
Analysis of the Futures Markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
China Stocks Gains of up to 16% in just three weeks. What's next?! / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
By: Money_and_Markets
Just three weeks ago, in my April 10 Money and Markets column, I told you Chinese shares looked like a great bargain. I even titled my piece " Buy Like Crazy! " My reasoning ...
First, China's stock market had already declined nearly 45% from its record highs earlier this year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
A Good Reason To Sell Stock Market Investments- Taxes / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Paul_Lamont
Last month we stated: “we should expect rocket-launched (oh they've saved us) bear market rallies.” Since that time, the DJIA has had two separate blastoffs. That's all it took for investors to forget about the massive deflation that is happening in U.S. neighborhoods . We view the rise of the last two months as a breather before more serious selling takes hold. Goldman Sachs agrees and is warning ‘delusional' investors of a sell-off of “a further 15pc over the ‘near term.'” Warren Buffett has also recently stated “ the recession will be more severe than most expect. ” Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Gold, the Dow, T-Notes: Which Does Best During Recessions? / Stock-Markets / Recession
By: EWI
Susan C. Walker of Elliott Wave International writes: Each year, the NCAA college basketball tournament winnows its starting field of 64 teams to the Final Four teams who play for a chance to become the national champion. Congratulations to the University of Kansas and the University of Tennessee, this year's men's and women's basketball champions.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Seven Ominous Crises: How to Protect Your Portfolio and Profit! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: Many of the investment trends I talk about tend to play out over an extended period of time — for example, the long-term price gains in food and energy. But I see at least seven different crises that could rock your world over the next 12 months.
My intention is not to scare you. I simply want to raise your awareness today, and give you different ways you can profitably hedge your portfolio against these threats.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Stock Markets Headed Lower into June-Sell in May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Global Stock Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
The old stock trader's saying of “sell in May and walk away” appears to be unfolding right on schedule this year. And with the expected major low coming in June, for the next 2 months, investors may wish to sit on the sidelines to watch the show and keep their investing on hold. If the last three major lows (March 2007, August 2007 and January 2008) were any example, the trough in June could be quite interesting. No one can say that this market is boring. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Worst is Not Over for Stock Market Falls, Credit Crisis Or Fed Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Commentators and pundits alike have erroneously stated that last week's highs in US equity indices broke important technical levels. The Dow has not only failed to breach above a key trend line resistance of 12,920, prevailing since the October highs but also failed to breach the 50% retracement from the same high to the January lows. Similarly, the S&P500's major resistance stands at the 1,410 trend line resistance acting since the October 10 highs. We remind our readers that these recurring failures are no coincidence but instead a technical failure that is largely in synch with prolonged economic uncertainty. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Food Price Inflation, Monetary Policy & Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Food Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
The second is by good friend and Maine fishing buddy David Kotok, the chief investment officer of Cumberland Asset Managers ( www.cumber.com ). He was recently in Africa where he met with the head of the central bank of a small country with headline inflation of 10%. The problem is that "core inflation" is 5% and food inflation is 15%, yet accounts for 50% of the GDP. He asked a group of financial thinkers (including your humble analyst) to ponder what that central banker should do. Do you set high rates and target overall inflation or set lower rates and not worry about food inflation.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Why the Credit Crisis is Far From Finished / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
By: John_Mauldin
This week in Outside the Box we look at two brief essays which give us different perspective on the Continuing Crisis. The first is by Mohamed El-Erian, the co-chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco. His book, 'When Markets Collide: Investment Strategies for the Age of Global Economic Change', will be published by McGraw Hill in June, and it will be on my summer reading list. El-Erian argues in the thought-provoking piece from the Financial Times that the crisis is still far from finished, and that those who think we are returning to more placid times may be surprised when volatility suddenly becomes even more pervasive. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Stock Markets Buoyed by Decent Earnings and Interest Rate Cuts / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
With all the hand wringing about consumer confidence falling to 25+ year lows, it becomes much easier to understand IF we make the assumption that we are in a recession. Others worry about the self-fulfilling prophesy – if we believe we are in a recession, it will be so. However much of what is happening today was planted over a year ago. This too is the reason for why all the rate cuts made by the Fed have had little impact upon investors and the economy. However, the cuts will eventually have an impact – but that is not likely until later in the year. A complicating factor in today's economy is the lack of lending “interest” by banking institutions.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Institutional Index Stocks Index Suggests Weakness Ahead for Broader Market / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
This long term view of the Dow, Transports, and Institutional Index
tells you where the market is now.
Bull and Bear markets have one thing in common ... Bull markets move up in a long term up channel, and Bear markets move down in a long term down channel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
Hyperinflation- The High Road To Hell / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Captain_Hook
If that's where we are going, which appears to be the case depending on your perspective, we might as well take the high road (meaning via hyperinflation), as at least this way our feet are more likely to stay dry during the trip. Isn't this a much better rationale to justify why we humans are in such a hurry to use up the non-renewable resources that are key to our survival? Moreover, isn't it a better way of accounting for why central planners are allowed to debase our currencies / economies than simple greed and ignorance, because even at a slower pace, the oil will be gone soon enough anyway. Here, the assumption is our population bubble is function of easily accessible liquid crude oil, and that once supplies become increasingly strained (as in Peak Oil ), so will our survival. Naturally, most people, who have what they would term an ‘optimistic view' of the future, shun such thinking, dismissing it as pessimism entertained by the ‘lunatic fringe'. Read full article... Read full article...