Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, June 07, 2019
Fear Drives Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The continued upside price move in Gold is a very clear sign that fear is starting to enter the global markets again. We read an article last night that suggested many professional fund managers are preparing for a bigger downside price move as well as expecting the US Fed to potentially decreased interest rates over the next 12 to 24 months as the expected downside price move takes place. We understand this concern by many industry professionals and share some of their same concerns, yet we believe these individual are far too early in shifting their stance in the markets right now.
As you may be aware, our research does not show any major downside risks until later in July 2019 or August 2019. Even then, the price of the Dow Jones Index would have to fall over 18% before the December 2018 lows become threatened. The current upside price recovery, with the Dow Jones up over 400 pts from the lows on Monday, June 3, suggests the US market and the Capital Shift that has been taking place over the past 24+ months is still rather strong with investor buying dips. We told our followers this bounce was about to happen the day before it bottomed here.
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Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Recession Probabilities Continue to Increase: What’s Next for Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market rallied above its 200 day moving average today along with Fed-related news. Today’s headlines:
- The New York Fed’s Recession Probability Model continues to increase
- Today’s spike saw relatively low volume
- Stocks spiked, but VIX didn’t fall significantly today
- 30 year – 2 year Treasury yield is steepening
- PMI and the S&P are both falling
- Zahorchak Method isn’t falling
Wednesday, June 05, 2019
Enjoy The Stock Market Bounce… In Two Weeks Things Get Nasty / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Stocks bounced yesterday because:
1) They were oversold.
2) The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).
3) Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”
4) Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.
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Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Stock Market Second Half of 2019 – Expect The Unexpected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe the current price rotation is just the beginning of something much bigger. Over the past 16+ months, we’ve been calling these tops and bottoms many months in advance. In February/March 2018, we called the bottom and initiated a call that the US stock market would rally to establish new all-time highs. Very few believed us at that time, but the markets did exactly what we predicted. In September 2018, we called for the markets to experience weakness, pause after a quick downturn, then establish an “ultimate bottom” near November 2018 before rallying back to near all-time highs again. At that time, everyone was betting the new market crash had taken over Wall Street and we were really the only ones suggesting the US stock market would rally back from the December 2018 lows. Guess what happened? The markets did exactly what we predicted and went on to hit new highs months later.
Tuesday, June 04, 2019
Fibonacci Support May Signal Bounce in Oil & Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We want to take a moment to point out that a Fibonacci 100% price move setup may prompt an upside price swing over the next few days and weeks. Many traders fail to identify this setup and get caught up in the current price trend. This happens because we lose focus on the fact that price always moves in segments or legs – from one peak or trough to another peak or trough. The process of creating these segments or legs is usually structured in these types of Fibonacci price increment, and Fib targets I have personally found to be the most accurate for spotting profit taking and turning points.
We provide two very clear examples of this type of setup and how it has worked in the past. We urge all traders to understand there are many examples of larger Fibonacci price expansion legs throughout history. These examples of the 100% Fibonacci price leg are unique instances of price movement and, after confirmation of a base/reversal, can become very valid trading signals.
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Monday, June 03, 2019
How Foolish We All Are About China And Life / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
While I will let the “real” analysts debate about how we should handle our trade deal regarding China, I am only here to discuss the sentiment around the China deal.
This past week, I have seen many posts like this one:
“We wouldn't be down at these relatively low levels had China settled with Trump. Guaranteed.”
The posters’ logic works like this: The market has been dropping ever since the China deal fell apart. So, it is clear that the cause of the drop is the China deal debacle. And I am quite certain that almost all of you think in this exact same way. I mean it so logical, right?
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Monday, June 03, 2019
Stock Market Technical Data Points Snowballing Into The Abyss? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Submissions
Or Is This The Time To Relax Or Take Action?
There is so much to write about I could fill five pages and still receive an Incomplete. I know myself would not read five page, but here goes and will try to make it brief. IMO there is a sense of urgency snowballing since early May. The Russell 2000 broke out of a well defined base on May 3rd and I thought the final leg of our decade long Bull Market was underway through the fall. Two trading days later President Donald tweets China has reneged on several agreed upon aspects of the negotiations. The market reversed swiftly and significantly. All breakouts failed, a very bad sign and it only gets worse.
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Monday, June 03, 2019
Stock Market Correction Extends, Gold Breaking out? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. C-wave likely.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, June 02, 2019
Did the Stock Market Just Make the Mother of All Bull Traps? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The S&P is now down -6.5% from its all-time high, after making a marginal new high vs. its September 2018. On the charts, this “looks like” a bull trap. Is it really? Today’s headlines:
- Examining the “bull trap”
- Collapsing Treasury yields, and what this means for stocks
- SKEW’s decline
- Dow has fallen 6 weeks in a row
- Copper and stocks both down 4 weeks in a row
- First monthly decline after a 4 month rally
- Emerging markets outperforming the U.S.
Friday, May 31, 2019
The Stocks Bull Market is Over… Now Comes the Bloodbath / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The markets are a sea of red this morning…
I’ve been warning for weeks that a collapse was coming… and now it is here.
The markets have finally woken up to the fact that the US and China will NOT be reaching a trade deal… and that the global economy is contracting.
Stocks have taken out critical support (red line). The next stop will be in the lower 2,700s (blue line).
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Can Markets Still Drop Sharply…or Is the Fed Invincible? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The financial markets feel as if they are totally controlled. Zerohedge recently made an observation that pretty well sums up the situation, in the context of trade: The quickest way to settle the trade war is for stock markets to drop significantly. Much lower prices will put pressure on President Trump to end the standoff.
The problem is neither the president nor the Fed have the stomach for lower prices. Investors are certain they will act quickly to prevent any major bear market.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Stocks Break Downward In Afternoon Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The afternoon price breakdown in the YM (Down Futures) continues to confirm our recent analysis. We authored a three-part research post near mid-May discussing how the global tensions would likely play out in the global stock markets. We also authored another, more recent, research post about how the US stock markets would likely find weakness as news is digested after the US Memorial Day holiday weekend. If we go far enough back in our research, we can find a very interesting research post from March 31, 2019, where our research team suggested July 2019 would be a key date for a potential market top formation.
Today, we are going to focus on the downside price rotation that is happening in the YM (Dow Futures) and how it points to an extended sideways Pennant/Flag price formation over the next few weeks before a breakdown move may cause havoc in the markets.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Stock Market Sell In May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
In this report we will look at the state of the stock market and update the condition of a potential bottom in the gold space.
Sell in May and Go Away
You have all heard this Wall Street ditty before and it is now upon us at this moment. Despite this old market rule being an established truism, few actually use it to make money. Instead the daily market action draws investors back into the market typically in search of that illusory “Summer Rally”. Instead they typically find themselves in the stock market’s “Summer Doldrums”. I can’t quote the exact statistics, however if one was to simply sell in May and stay out of the market until the typical October weakness, then go back in whole hog his returns would greatly outpace the returns of the market itself. So the sell in May phenomenon is real. Let’s try to use it to our advantage.
Time to Start Sharpening our Knives
This means it’s time to begin shorting the market… selectively that is. I have shown in the past that shorting is most profitable if one holds off until the second half of a bear market. That’s because the market starts providing decent follow through on the downside. We are not there yet since it’s still early on in phase I of the bear market, however selective shorts can be taken when a set-up presents itself. Later on in this report I will present a few short sale set-ups.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
This 1 Investment strategy could change your future - eBook inside / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Submissions
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Monday, May 27, 2019
US Memorial Day Weekend Market Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Memorial Day weekend is set up to become a very interesting time for investors. The EU voting is complete and the change in EU leadership may move the markets a bit. China appears to be playing a waiting game – attempting to hold the US/Trump at bay until after the 2020 US elections. This week is certain to be very interesting for traders/investors.
The European stocks moved higher in trading on Monday as the relief from the EU election event and support for auto shares pushed the markets higher. The transition in the EU over the next few months will solidify into a political and social agenda. The EU leadership must acknowledge these future objectives of all parties in order to maintain some level of calm. It is evident that many EU nations are relatively satisfied with the current leadership while others are transitioning into more centrist leadership. The next 4+ years will be full of further transition in the EU.
China is another global issue that is relatively unsettled. We’ve been doing some research with regards to China and the potential future political and economic pathways that may become evident in the near-term future. Our biggest concern is that China has been inflating their economic levels for decades and the true scope of the Chinese economy may be much weaker than everyone expects. If our suspicions are correct and China has been inflating economic levels for many years, then the transition to a consumer/services-driven economy may be dramatically over-inflated and the US/China trade issues could be biting much harder than the Chinese want to admit.
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Monday, May 27, 2019
Is the Stock Market Making a Long Term Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has been choppy over the past 3 weeks, with trade-related sectors and markets much worse-off than the overall U.S. stock market. From a longer term perspective, the U.S. stock market has gone nowhere since 2018. This begs the question “is the market making a long term top??
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Monday, May 27, 2019
Stock Market Rally Over – Downtrend Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Final long-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – The anticipated intermediate-term correction has started. Can’t tell yet if it’s a C-wave or something less.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, May 27, 2019
Stock Market Crash Warning - The Trap Door Has Opened / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
I love reading about all the good news in the market. This past week, we saw U.S. jobless claims dip to 211,000, and they are now near half-century lows. We also saw U.S. consumer sentiment reach a 15-year high. So, what could go wrong?
Well, as Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, noted:
. . . financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons.
Moreover, the fact that consumer sentiment is hitting major highs is often a warning to the financial markets.
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
Global Multi-Market / Asset Charts Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
First off, a wish to all readers for a happy Memorial Day weekend as we remember loved ones lost in battle and otherwise. Memorial is not a US thing, it’s an everybody thing.
Today we take a look at various markets and assets using daily charts of the associated ETFs.
The real work in determining the state of the markets going forward will be done by evaluating internals measures like sector leadership (e.g. our SOX>NDX>SPX leadership chain), inter-market and inter-asset ratios (e.g. our ongoing gold ratios analysis), macro indicators (e.g. the recent notable drop in inflation expectations) and a whole host of other hidden markers to be tracked and updated (NFTRH is constantly on that job looking forward to the potentials, as opposed to in review or in rear-view). Also, let’s not forget sentiment analysis, which led us to the current correction. It will also come into play going both ways in the weeks and months ahead.
But sometimes it’s fun to just check out the charts and see what we see.
Beginning right here in the US with the broad market, SPY is in a small potential Head & Shoulders pattern, with an alternate left shoulder should it turn out to be what self-important TAs like to call a “complex H&S”. That would create a larger H&S scenario with a lower target, which we’ll reserve for NFTRH if the time comes to activate this still unconfirmed H&S. The dashed neckline is shown for the little guy and should the big one come into play the black SMA 200 could act as a neckline there.
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Friday, May 24, 2019
China Hang Seng Stocks Index Collapses and Commodities / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Chinese Hang Seng Index collapsed early this week to new recent lows. This breakdown in the Chinese major stock index highlights the anticipated fallout from the continued US/China trade war. Recent data from the Chinese property market and corporate bond markets suggest a broad slowdown in economic activity which may surprise many foreign investors in the weeks/months to come.
Partner this continued economic weakness with the EU Elections and the continued US/China trade issues and we almost have a perfect storm for commodities such as Oil, Copper and other industrial/transportation related shares. If the trade continues to collapse between the US/China while elections cause the general populations to “pause” in traditional spending habits, it would suggest that we could see a continued breakdown in the general commodity levels over the next 6~12+ months.
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