Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 2nd of my 2 part latest update to my stock market trend forecast for 2019 (Part1). Also note that the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide).
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs. The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price. When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Meanwhile, Socialist Elizabeth Warren Surges Past Biden
It’s been a big week of geopolitical strife and potential crisis points for financial markets. The week began with one of the biggest single day oil spikes on record, then saw the Federal Reserve lose control of its own interest rate in the repo market before announcing another rate cut.
Yet these and other developments are having surprisingly little impact on Wall Street. We aren’t seeing huge stock market gyrations or a mass migration by investors into precious metals. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for the week while gold prices are trading modestly higher.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark Fed funds rate by a quarter point. Though the move was widely expected, it was not without controversy.
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Your $1,229 FREE Tticket to Elliott Market Analysis & Trading Set-ups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: EWI
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil. The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now. Might it be the Fed Meeting?
You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place? This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors). This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up, Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a conversation on the latest central banking shenanigans, why he believes the economy may heat up again in the near term, and why the war on cash and the move to digital money will continue to drive people into gold. So don’t miss another great interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are testing support levels this week. Gold has been hanging around the $1,500 level while silver trades sideways through Thursday’s close at just above $18 an ounce.
As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,498 per ounce, down 0.7% for the week. Silver, meanwhile, now shows a weekly loss of 2.0%, with most of that loss coming here today, to bring spot prices to $17.89.
The bright spot in the metals space this week is palladium. The catalytic metal pierced through $1,600 an ounce on Thursday to record a new record high. Palladium prices now check in at $1,609 after gaining $60 or 3.9% on the week.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Understanding Ways To Stretch Your Investments Further / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Sumeet_Manhas
While earning is a tasking process in itself, keeping up with the money management further gets arduous when expenses are skyrocketing. This means you need to remain watchful for smart ways to churn out some cash without having to invest much. Talking about which, the internet has now enabled individuals to convert their leisure hours into decent wealth generation routines.
However, make sure to evaluate risks thoroughly before you proceed with any investment option in order to get secure returns. It’s vital to invest your hard-earned money in a way that you don’t have to be stressed about obtaining the profits. Keeping this into account, some seamless investment options are discussed in this article so that you can have multiple earning channels.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Stock Market Looking Toppy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Is the Stocks Bull Market Nearing an End? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
The current bull market has advanced for 10 years. Is it near the end of its run? How much more upside is left?
This is a question that we receive from investors at an increasing rate over the last couple of years.
Our answer is not definitive, but is based on long-term models that continually illustrate the same approximate conclusion.
Our first model is constructed on 130+ years of data. It is based on the relative performance between deflationary assets (Dow Jones Industrial Average) verses inflationary assets (Commodity Research Bureau), or the Dow verses the CRB.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
US Stock Market Indexes Continue to Rally Within A Defined Range / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This week ended with the S&P, Dow Industrials and Nasdaq stalling near recent highs. From a technical perspective, both Thursday and Friday setup small range price bars (Doji candles or small Spinning Top type bars) after the upside price move on Wednesday. These are indicative of price consolidation and indecision.
The news events that initiated this rally, nearly a week ago, continue to drive sentiment in the markets. Yet the news from the ECB that new stimulus efforts would begin with $20 Billion Euros monthly invested in assets until they decide it is not required any longer suggests the EU is desperate to support extended growth and some renewed inflation. This move by the EU pushed banks and the finance sector higher while the US stock market stalled near the end of the week.
At these lofty levels, almost all of our indicators and predictive modeling systems are suggesting the US stock markets are well within an overbought mode. Of course, the markets can continue in this mode for extended periods of time as central banks and external efforts to support the asset/stock market continues, at some point investors/traders will recognize the imbalance in price/demand/supply as a fear of a price contraction.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
A History Lesson For Pundits Who Don’t Believe Stocks Are Overvalued / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Harry_Dent
Two things should be obvious: We are in a totally artificial recovery due only to global printing of $13 trillion and more recently, tax cuts; and this is now the longest rally and economic recovery in U.S. exceeding 10 years.There has been a recession every 10 years since I was a kid: 1962, 1970, 1973-1975, 1980-1982, 1990-1991, 2001, and most recently 2008-2009.
The sunspot cycle has captured them all and that has averaged a little over 10 years since 1900. That cycle is near a bottom and is not due to turn up until at least late 2020 and more likely 2021 or later.
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Monday, September 16, 2019
Capitalizing on Changing Demographics / Stock-Markets / Demographics
By: Robert_Ross
Part of it has to do with where we live. South Central Texas is a thriving, job-creating area, and it draws millions of young workers, so children seem to be everywhere. If you’re looking for a place with adult-friendly restaurants and theaters, this isn’t it.But part of it is my age – or more specifically, my stage of life, although the two go hand-in-hand.
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Friday, September 13, 2019
Stock Market Dow to 38,000 by 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: readtheticker
President Trump said the Dow would be 10,000 points higher if it was not for the FED. In truth if the Dow breaks to new all time highs the next stop is 38,000 and he may be proven correct. Is there an election on?
Of course who knows? But lets continue.
The fundamentals behind this may be:
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Thursday, September 12, 2019
Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The charts below are telling me we crash lower on 9/12 and again on 9/18-19ish.The expected 9/12 bottom should hold the SPX 2870 area. The 9/18 to 9/19 or the 20th move should go down below the 8/5 low to create an irregular bottom either on 9/19 or 9/20.
This is telling me that we likely go to new highs (double top?) around Oct 18, 2019 monthly Oct Option Expiry and then crash into early November to finish out the cycle 10 month low from Dec 24/26, 2018.
It is going to get interesting, because should an October 18th “Double Top” happens, we may see new highs by mid December, 2019 (e-wave read and 4 year cycle) and then go down harder into early 2020 around Feb/March to sync with the 4 year cycle from 2015-16. WOW!!
Benner's Cycle is telling me we see another top likely around late summer 2020 and a final crash into late 2020 with a possible double bottom in early 2021 like 2000 to 2002/03.
Thursday, September 12, 2019
Increased Pension Liabilities During the Coming Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Pensions & Retirement
By: Nick_Barisheff
Many Canadian companies have significant unfunded pension liabilities on their balance sheets. With the traditional 60/40 allocation to stocks and bonds, pension deficits may become unmanageable during the next market correction if they are not dealt with urgently. Governments can afford to ignore this looming disaster and act irresponsibly largely because they can print money; however, corporations cannot afford the risk of unfunded liabilities nor can they eliminate pension deficits as easily. We would like to take this opportunity to illustrate how these pension deficits can be taken in hand.
President Barack Obama’s administration racked up nearly as much debt in eight years as in the entire 232-year history of the US before he took office. He entered office with $10.7 trillion in total debt, and he bowed out with the country owing $19.9 trillion. That’s an average tab of $1.15 trillion a year.
Under President Donald Trump, the debt has continued to climb. The $2.18 trillion increase works out to about $1.05 trillion a year, or slightly less than the pace Obama set.
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Thursday, September 12, 2019
Precious Metals, US Dollar, Stocks – How It All Relates – Part II / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This research post continues our effort to keep investors aware of the risks and shifting capital opportunities that are currently taking place in the global markets. We started in PART I of this article by attempting to highlight how shifting currency valuations have played a very big role in precious metals pricing and how these currency shifts may ultimately result in various risk factors going forward with regards to market volatility.
Simply put, currency pricing pressures are likely to isolate many foreign markets from investment activities as consumers, institutions and central governments may need more capital to support localized economies and policies while precious metals continue to get more and more expensive.
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Wednesday, September 11, 2019
2020 Will Be the Most Volatile Market Year in History / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
The last few weeks marked a turning point in the global economy.It’s more than the trade war. A sense of vulnerability is replacing the previous confidence—and with good reason.
We are vulnerable, and we’ll be lucky to get through the 2020s without major damage.
Let’s talk about the risks facing us in the next year or so and the economic environment in which we will face those risks.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Raymond_Matison
It is the goal of this article to project the current financial, economic, and geopolitical trends to a logical and credible future outcome. Some of these trends such as in demographics have been in motion for decades, while other trends such as those for negative interest rates have been developing for a much shorter time frame. Pension asset accumulation and eventual payout also extend over decades, and therefore are reasonably predictable. Even money and credit creation trends by the FED have been in place for a long period of time. Finally, the extended bubble market in fixed income and equities, in light of slowing economic trends, provides some assurance to future price expectations.
It is anticipated that a market decline in global economic activity will reduce fixed income and equity prices such that it will start an unvirtuous cycle between the consumer as driver to the economy and financial markets. Market declines will become noticeable by negatively affecting pension asset accounts and actual payouts. Demographic trends will frustrate maintaining our Social Security viable, and severe measures will need to be taken. State, municipal, teacher, corporate and individual pensions are already falling short of their promises. The FED has a publicized goal of increasing inflation, while the President wants a weaker dollar. They will both succeed. By the time that we exit from the coming Great Global Recession, our dollar very likely will no longer be the world’s leading reserve currency, which will result in a dramatic decline in the purchasing power of the dollar affecting negatively domestic and foreign dollar asset holders, or those receiving pensions in dollars. The world will have become financially and geopolitically multipolar resulting in a new world order.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Stock Market Sector Rotation Giving Mixed Signals About The Future / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
It seemed the markets wanted to make a point to alert us that volatility may be here to stay very early in trading this week. After a fairly flat overnight session with very little price volatility, the markets opened up to a moderately large price rotation (first downward, then back higher) before settling into a broader downside move in the early afternoon in New York. The interesting facet of this move is that it seemed to be related to price valuations and expectations in certain sectors. Before we get into the details, be sure to opt-in to my Free Market Forecast and Trade Ideas Newsletter so stay on top of these market moves.
As we’ve been suggesting for many weeks and months, we are not out of the woods quite yet. The US markets may be subject to more price volatility than we have considered while the continued Capital Shift (foreign capital pouring into the US markets) may also be shifting. One thing is certain, now is not the time to try to set up positional trades in the market expecting longer-term price trends to set up and run over the next few months. This appears to be a traders market where skilled technical traders will shine by finding opportunities and executing very skilled and targeted trades for profits.
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