Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 01, 2019
Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Rotation in NQ and ES / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We wanted to share some information that suggests the NQ (NASDAQ) and ES (S&P 500) may engage in some relatively broad market rotation over the next few weeks. Also, to share that the YM (Dow Industrials) may stay relatively flat throughout this span of time. Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is showing somewhere between 8% to 18% or more in price movement.
The fact that our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting the ES and NQ may rotate lower over the next few weeks and that the YM may not share the same levels of price volatility suggests that the Dow Industrials (35 stocks) may be viewed as a more solid economic base than the tech-heavy NASDAQ (100 symbols) and the various symbols within the S&P 500 (500 symbols).
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Will Stock Market S&P 2955 Break or Hold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Ricky_Wen
The fourth week of September played out as a downside range consolidation pattern as the bulls failed their immediate upside setup and bears tried to resurrect themselves. In hindsight, the week played out according to statistics since 1960 as the week after September OPEX remains the weakest week. The only problem with the week is that there was still no decisive winner as price kept flirting with the 2955 breakdown or hold-above pattern on the Emini S&P 500 (ES). Friday during RTH pierced below 2955 for a few minutes, but the price action was unwilling to close below it, so everything is still stuck in the overall range.
The main takeaway from the fourth week of September is that both sides are starting to get impatient now because it’s been two weeks of digestion versus the three weeks of August continuous upside grind. The only thing that matters now is whether this is just a simple backtest of August’s breakout 2930-2940 zone or bears finally can resurrect themselves with the 3020s double-top pattern.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
The Fed Has Admitted It Screwed Up… the Next Crisis is Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
That’s THREE strikes against the Fed.
The Fed cut rates again in September.
At this point, trying to keep track of the Fed’s reasoning for monetary policy is all but impossible. There is no logic or reason behind anything they do.
A year ago, the Fed told us that hiking rates four times a year while running $50 billion in Quantitative Tightening (QT) per month would have no effect on the economy or financial system.
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Monday, September 30, 2019
Stock Market Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 29, 2019
Fibonacci Predictive Modeling Suggests Stock Market Price Volatility Will Continue / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We believe price volatility may surprise many traders throughout the end of this year. Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that price must rotate dramatically higher or lower to establish any new confirmed price trends. The Fibonacci price modeling system can be particularly useful in determining where and when price may attempt a major future price move. Today, we are sharing both Daily and Weekly chart highlighting our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system for the ES and YM to help our readers and followers understand what’s in store for the US markets over the next few weeks and months. Before we get into the details be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
Much like many of our other proprietary price and predictive modeling systems, the Fibonacci price modeling system adapts to price rotation, trends and volatility automatically by adjusting internal factoring levels and analysis functions to adapt to changes in price range and volatility. The process of adapting in this manner provides us with some very insightful capabilities. Today, we are going to focus on the Daily, the shorter term Fibonacci price analysis, and the Weekly, the longer term Fibonacci price analysis, modeling system results and attempt to share our current expectations with you.
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Saturday, September 28, 2019
Scary Warning Signs in Cash Funding Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Michael_Pento
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies joins me for another top-flight interview as we discuss some major stresses in the financial system that are going to result in some serious issues in the economy. He also talks about the trade summit happening next month and what it will likely mean for precious metals if a deal is struck between the U.S. and China, or if an agreement is not reached. So be sure to stick around for my conversation with Michael Pento, coming up after this week’s market update.
Precious metals markets are trading in wide ranges as they struggle to hold on to gains posted earlier in the week.
As of this Friday recording, the metals are taking it on the chin here today with gold now looking at a weekly decline of 1.6% to trade at $1,494 an ounce. Silver is down 3.0% for the week to come in at $17.49 per ounce. Platinum is moving lower this week by 1.4% and currently fetches $937 an ounce. And finally, palladium is now commanding $1,692 per ounce after rising another 2.7% this week.
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Friday, September 27, 2019
Warning: The Stock Market is on VERY Thin Ice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Yesterday’s drop did a lot of damage to the rally.
Stocks rolled over after hitting resistance (red line). They also broke the bearish rising wedge formation they’ve been forming over the last month (blue lines).
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Thursday, September 26, 2019
News and Emotions Aside, This Is Where Stocks and Precious Metals Are Headed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
If you follow the headline news, read multiple articles a day from different sources on the markets, and are human then you are likely underperforming the market in which you are trying to beat like gold, miners, the SP500 index or whatever it may be.
The information I talk about below and in this video should be a real eye opener for those have not seen technical analysis in action, just how clear the we can see what the stock market, bonds, metals, oil and more will do next. Even at a time like this when the markets are gyrating all over hte place from week to week, we can still gauge our risk and be a winner.
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Thursday, September 26, 2019
Democrats Launch Formal Trump Impeachment – What Should Gold, Stock Traders Expect? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
News of the formal impeachment proceedings came just after the markets closed on September 24, 2019. The markets had already broken a bit lower most of the day after Consumer Confidence and Jobs expectations were weaker than expected. We had just authored a public research post about our belief that the Technology sector was about to breakdown and begin to move lower. Additionally, we pushed out a post about how Silver would become the “Super-Hero” of 2019/2020 based on our expectations of further gains.
We believe the new impeachment proceedings will result in a market that is very similar to what happened when the US invaded Kuwait in August 1990. At that time, the US launched a very fast invasion of Kuwait that prompted a massive news event and resulted in hours of new invasion video that drew millions of Americans into watching the news every night. This invasion was almost like an extended Super Bowl or an extended World Series event where millions of people are actively engaged in this event, stop engaging in the local economy and focus their attentions on the news cycle, content and political circus originating in DC. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Commitment From Stock Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Ricky_Wen
Monday’s session showcased commitment from bulls as they defended against last week’s 2980.75 key range low support on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) with a double-bottom low at 2982 during Globex trading. Price remained above the daily 20 EMA in the 2970s as the whole range day ground slowly higher with higher lows and higher highs into the regular trading hours (RTH) closing print.
The main takeaway is that the smaller range of 2980-3025 is taking place within the overall 2955-3025 range of the past couple weeks. Everybody and their mother seems to be waiting for this high level consolidation/digestion to complete and for the move toward new all-time highs as we head into next Monday’s quarter end and into October.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Stocks Wedge At The Edge – Front And Center / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We continue to alert our followers of the extended Wedge (Flag or Pennant) formation that has setup over the past 16+ months in most of the US major indexes. The reason these are so important for skilled technical traders is because the Apex of these formations typically result in a violent price move that may result in a dramatic profit opportunity (or massive risk event). The most interesting facet of the current Wedge formation is that it is happening just 12 months before the US Presidential Election cycle.
It is our believe that a major price reversion event will begin to take place over the next 2 to 6+ weeks and complete near the end of 2019 or into early 2020. This reversion event is and continues to align with our super-cycle event analysis from earlier this year. Our researchers believe this reversion event is essential for price to establish “true valuation levels” and to begin a renewed future price trend. We believe that trend will begin between June 2020 and August 2020 and will result in a strong bullish price trend. We also believe this bullish price trend in the US stock market may last well beyond 12+ months – well into 2021 and beyond.
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Monday, September 23, 2019
Stock Market Top Almost Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way? How much longer, is the question.
Intermediate trend – We have started a correction of intermediate nature.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, September 22, 2019
Massive Stock Market Price Reversion May Be Days or Weeks Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our researcher team believes a massive global market price reversion/correction may be setting up and may only be a few days or weeks away from initiating. Our team of dedicated researchers and market analysts have been studying the markets, precious metals, and most recently the topping formation in the ES (S&P 500 Index). We believe the current price pattern formation is leading into a price correction/reversion event that could push the US major indexed lower by at least 12 to 15%.
Historically, these types of price reversion events are typically considered “price exploration”. Over time, investors push a pricing/valuation bias into the markets because of expectations and perceptions related to future market valuations and outcomes. What happens when these current valuation levels and future expectations shift perspective from optimistic to potentially overvalued is that a price reversion event takes place. This happens when investors shift focus, determine value exists at a different price level and abandon previous valuation expectations.
The rotation in price is actually a very healthy process that must take place from time to time. The structure of price waves (for example Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlestick, Gann and other price theories) are based on this process of price rising to overbought levels, then retracing to oversold levels – again and again as price trends higher or lower. This is the process of “price exploration” – just as we are describing. In order for price to trend higher or lower over time, price must move in the wave like pattern to identify true value (retracement/reversion) and extended value (a rally or selloff) in a type of wave formation.
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the 2nd of my 2 part latest update to my stock market trend forecast for 2019 (Part1). Also note that the whole of this analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work Stock Market Trend Forecasts When Mega-Trends Collide).
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Saturday, September 21, 2019
Is Stock Market Price Revaluation Event About To Happen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Skilled technical traders must be aware that price is setting up for a breakout or breakdown event with recent Doji, Hammer and other narrow range price bars. These types of Japanese Candlestick patterns are warnings that price is coiling into a tight range and the more we see them in a series, the more likely price is building up some type of explosive price breakout/breakdown move in the near future. The ES (S&P 500 E-mini futures) chart is a perfect example of these types of price bars on the Daily chart (see below).
Tri-Star Tops, Three River Evening Star patterns, Hammers/Hangmen and Dojis are all very common near extreme price peaks and troughs. The reason they form is that price is unable to rally or fall far enough within a normal trading day to project broader range types of Japanese Candlestick patterns and these rotational/top/bottom types of Japanese candlestick patterns are often found at or near key reversal points in price. When they form in a series, like we are seeing currently, it is a very ominous warning that price will react in an explosive movement – either UP or DOWN. Be sure to opt-in to our Free Trade Ideas Newsletter.
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Friday, September 20, 2019
Panicky Fed Flooding Overnight Markets with Cash / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Meanwhile, Socialist Elizabeth Warren Surges Past Biden
It’s been a big week of geopolitical strife and potential crisis points for financial markets. The week began with one of the biggest single day oil spikes on record, then saw the Federal Reserve lose control of its own interest rate in the repo market before announcing another rate cut.
Yet these and other developments are having surprisingly little impact on Wall Street. We aren’t seeing huge stock market gyrations or a mass migration by investors into precious metals. The S&P 500 is essentially flat for the week while gold prices are trading modestly higher.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark Fed funds rate by a quarter point. Though the move was widely expected, it was not without controversy.
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
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By: EWI
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Thursday, September 19, 2019
Is The Stock Market Other Shoe About To Drop With Fed News? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’ve been watching the markets today and over the past few days after the Saudi Arabia attack and are surprised with the real lack of volatility in the US major markets – excluding the incredible move higher, then lower in Oil. The real news appears to be something completely different than Oil right now. Might it be the Fed Meeting?
You might remember our August 19th prediction, based on Super-Cycle research and patterns, that a breakdown in the global markets was about to take place? This failed to validate because of external factors (positive news related to the US China Trade talk and other factors). This didn’t completely invalidate the super-cycle pattern – it may have just delayed it a bit.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Stock Market VIX To Begin A New Uptrend and What it Means / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting from this disruption in oil supply is just now starting to play out.
The long term uncertainty in the markets, as well as the rotation in the US Dollar and other foreign currencies, could play a bigger role in the type of volatility and extent of the immediate price rotation that may result from this external news event. Our VIX predictions and ADL predictive modeling system are suggesting volatility will become front and center over the next 60+ day before settling into a more narrow price range.
As we see it, this disruption in oil is an external factor related to the markets. Yes, it will disrupt about 5% of the global oil supply. Yes, some type of retaliation could take place over the next 30 to 60 days. Yes, the global markets will continue to rotate until they have priced in the additional risk related to this current event and potential future events. That means investors must understand the value and opportunity of proper position sizing and risk management. The next few weeks may be full of surprises.
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Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Media Hypes Recession Whilst Trump Proposes a Tax on Savings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up, Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a conversation on the latest central banking shenanigans, why he believes the economy may heat up again in the near term, and why the war on cash and the move to digital money will continue to drive people into gold. So don’t miss another great interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets are testing support levels this week. Gold has been hanging around the $1,500 level while silver trades sideways through Thursday’s close at just above $18 an ounce.
As of this Friday recording, gold prices come in at $1,498 per ounce, down 0.7% for the week. Silver, meanwhile, now shows a weekly loss of 2.0%, with most of that loss coming here today, to bring spot prices to $17.89.
The bright spot in the metals space this week is palladium. The catalytic metal pierced through $1,600 an ounce on Thursday to record a new record high. Palladium prices now check in at $1,609 after gaining $60 or 3.9% on the week.
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