Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, October 01, 2009
U.S. Financial System Systemic Failure Approaches / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Debate stirs on whether the financial structure of the USEconomy is broken irreparably. Debate stirs on whether actions taken in the last year or two have put the nation on a path that can even achieve stability, let alone recovery. Debate stirs on whether a pernicious and not so secret syndicate has taken control of the USGovt financial ministries, let alone be removed. Debate stirs on whether lack of US Federal Reserve audits and disclosure of their accounting is integral to sustaining the syndicate control as well as its probable egregious fraud. Debate stirs whether the nationalizations have actually enabled adoption of wrecked assets, have concealed executive ransacking, and have buried massive counterfeit of bonds.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Deferring Financial Disaster / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Those who read the contrarian and alternative financial commentators may well be forgiven for wondering why the financial doomsday oft predicted hasn’t quite materialized. The financial crisis heralded by the crash in October 2008, preceded by the demise of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, among others, by all accounts was the tip of the iceberg and the advent of the Great Depression of our age.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Stock Market May Not Correct Until 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market
Common sense and prudence say stocks must experience a significant correction soon. Unfortunately, waiting for a correction to participate in the current stock rally has proved highly frustrating for many market participants. While it may not be what investors sitting on large cash positions want to hear, market history says a significant correction in stocks may not occur until 2010.
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Thursday, October 01, 2009
Stock Market Trading Back and Forth, Unwinding Nasty Divergences / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
That's all we're doing while trying to unwind those daily charts along with those nasty negative divergences. We go up. We go down. We go back up and then back down all in the same day. Tremendous whipsaw in wide and loose triangles as the bulls and bears fight it out between 1045/1080.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Stock Market Investors Don’t Fight the Fed / Stock-Markets / US Interest Rates
Martin Zweig, in his investment book “Winning on Wall Street” points out investors should not “fight the Fed”. In his book, he discusses the relationship between the discount rate and the performance of the US stock market. As he showed, most of the time, a rise in the discount rate leads to a lower average share prices. A drop in the discount rate leads to higher average share prices. Another concept called “two tumbles and a jump” indicates that two decreases in the discount rate within a six-month period lead to a jump up in the stock market. On the other hand, one or two rate increases within a 6-month period are moderately bearish for stocks. Three or more rate increases are extremely bearish.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Financial Markets Driven by Uncertainty / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
I can’t think of a better way to describe the last 2 years than as times of great uncertainty. Not only did we have two near catastrophic banking failures worldwide, but we also have the ever present Iran Israel nuclear contention. The USD held reasonably well during this period, although it’s weaker. In any case, gold has held up amazingly well over the period of the last two years too, in fact is at highs. What else is except US T bonds?
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Volatile Stock Market Session Ends Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets ended mixed but it was a wild ride, as volatile swings both ways whipped traders around.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Predicting the Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / US Stock Markets
Two years ago in The Return of Capital, Not The Return on Capital, we stated: "...as an indicator of a major trend reversal, 'Tens of thousands' of Japanese homemaker-traders are leveraging their bets on a fall in the yen. As global margin calls come in, investors will unwind their positions, and the homemaker-traders will find that they were the last ones to the party. We expect the Yen to appreciate for the long term, causing major pain for these novice investors." The weekly chart below of the Japanese Yen shows just how wrong those homemaker-traders have been.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Financial Sector Crime, Regulation and Reform / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
We have had the most expensive and damaging crime wave in American history over the past few years, costing the American public $10-$11 trillion loss of net worth. You are probably as surprised as I am about the lack of investigations, indictments and prosecutions for crimes of this size. At last week’s G-20 meeting we heard a wonderful speech from our “Orator-In-Chief”.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
This Stock Market Correction Is Dead / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Actually, hindsight and the Investment Grade Value Stock Index (IGVSI) Bargain Level Monitor tell us that it died early in March 2009. More realistically, however, corrections don't die quite so abruptly. They are supplanted by rallies--- and vice versa.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Stock Market Rydex Bullish and Bearish Leveraged Funds Indicator / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
As of Tuesday's close, the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds exceeded the amount of assets in the bearish and leveraged funds by a ratio of more than 2 to 1. Over the past 3 months, this measure of excessive investor enthusiasm for equities has coincided with more selling than buying.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
This Stock Market Sentiment Indicator Always Works / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Last Friday the folks at Fox Business News invited your editor on to talk about gold (view clip here – I come on at about the 21 minute mark). If you watch the video, it won’t take long to see Fox Business probably won’t be having me back on anytime soon.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Fed Fuelling the Next Stock Market Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
Every few weeks the world’s most powerful and influential central bankers — those in charge of the world’s number one reserve currency, the U.S. dollar — come together in what’s called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
They discuss the economy, interest rates, financial markets and whatever else they deem important. Then they decide to set the Federal Funds Rate at a level they think is appropriate.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Understanding How Stock Market Divergences Work / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Do You Understand How Divergences Work in the Market?
In my new short video, I share with you some divergences that are taking place in the S&P 500 right now.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Stock Market Drifting in No Mans Land / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
And that's just the way it is folks. Boring for sure. No fun. I get it. However, it is what it is. With 1045 being support and 1075/1080 being resistance, neither side was able to get anything done today. We're simply stuck, basically in the middle of the range, thus there's nothing more to do for the moment.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Stock Market Down Session Keeps Potential Top in Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices had a downday on Tuesday, giving back some of yesterday's big gains. The day started out with a move to new snapback highs on the S&P 500. At that point, the Nasdaq 100 failed to take out the highs, creating a negative divergence. They sold off quite sharply after consumer sentiment information came out. Then the market bounced, rolled over, and made their session lows in late morning until lunch.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
What Are the Big Institutional Stock Market Investors Doing? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
I will be spending most of today flying back to North Carolina ... so I will make today's update short and sweet.
This morning, we will look at the recent and past Accumulation and Distribution actions by Institutional Investors.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Stock Market Investors Anticipate "V" Shaped Recovery / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The third quarter is rapidly coming to a close with another double-digit gain in the equity markets. Investors are nearly giddy over the possibility of a “V” shaped economic recovery that they are falling over each other to buy stocks. Will the fourth quarter pull the curtain on the recovery? Will the Fed begin to signal an end to their very easy monetary policy? Will home prices ever go up again? So many questions and a mere page to cover it all!
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
China FXP ETF Downtrend Readying to Reverse? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
The action in the ProShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Stock Index ETF (NYSE: FXP) since mid-June exhibits a series of lower-lows in price, higher-lows in momentum (RSI), and declining volume into weakness, all of which are warning signals that the current downtrend in the FXP is extremely stressed – and ripe – for a period of countertrend movement.
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Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Stock Market Close to Major Turning Point / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The daily chart of the Gold miners bullish percentage index (BPGDM) is shown below, with the HUI shown in green. In the past whenever the BPGDM reached 85 or higher, it was often associated with a top. At present the BPGDM has declined from 87 to 67, with an accompanying decline in the HUI. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in stochastics 1 and 2. Based upon extrapolation of the trend, the potential downside could last for 3-4 weeks. Expect continued weakness in the gold stocks.
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