Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, October 09, 2009
The Financial Crisis Fires That Blind Investors / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
“Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Wall Street Mantra
While easily grasped, the above adage is not as easily respected. Rather, investors have a tendency to herd into what has performed well in the past. And in today’s financial world where asset class correlations are tied remarkably tight and the monetary powers that be are remarkably loose, this is an ominous contradiction.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Reality of the Economic State to Hit Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The following is an excerpt from the September Morgan Report. Many have asked what to expect after October 1, 2009. Well, that time has arrived and the following may give you the reader some insights into my thinking…
“[W]ith respect to future debt; would it not be wise and just for that nation to declare in the constitution they are forming that neither the legislature, nor the nation itself can validly contract more debt, than they may pay within their own age . . .” —Thomas Jefferson
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Stock Market Indices Close Higher, though Key Resistance Level Contains Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices finished with gains today, but gave back a good chunk of it in the last few hours. They started out with a gap up that broke out across key 2-day resistance. They then backed off and rested successfully and then came on strongly. By mid-day they reached their session highs at 1731 on the Nasdaq 100 and near 1070 on the S&P 500, then backed off into mid-afternoon, tried to rally but couldn't break out again, and finally backed off to close at the afternoon pullback lows.
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Stock Market Rallies into Doji Resistance, Will it Matter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Let's take a moment and talk about doji's again. When a market over a period of some days is either in an up trend or in a down trend and we print a doji, it means we should reverse the opposite way for a few days. That the other side has caught up. A doji usually occurs on a gap up or down with the market being virtually flat the rest of the day.
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Vietnam and Indonesia, Two Underappreciated Asian Tigers / Stock-Markets / Asian Economies
Question: China, China, China — when are you going to tell us about something other than the Chinese economy and Chinese stocks?
Answer: Today!
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Probable Price Ranges for SPY, FXI, UUP and TLT / Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
There is no way to realistically make a precise price prediction for a particular date for a traded security. It is possible, however, to observe the recent historical volatility (standard deviation) of a security to make realistic estimates of the probable range within which the security price may close through a future date.
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
The Ultimate Stock Market Buy and Hold Investors are Betting Big Here / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
We’re entering earnings season once again and most investors are on edge.
Will companies be able to top estimates again? Earnings estimates are low, but they’re not as low as they were last quarter when 70% of the S&P 500 beat estimates.
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Kiss the New Stocks Bull Market Theory Good-bye / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
I’ve also been tracking the S&P 500 in relation to its 88-weekly moving average: THE definitive metric for what establishes a bull vs. bear market. As I said in the last two issues, if the S&P 500 breaks ABOVE the 88-weekly moving average and stays there, then YES, we’re in a new bull market. However, if it’s turned away and falls below the 88-weekly moving average… THEN LOOK OUT BELOW.
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
How to Trade China Stock Market Sectors with ETFs / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
Right now, China is celebrating 60 years of Communist party rule. Most of the party-goers aren’t old enough to remember anything else, of course, but that isn’t stopping the nationwide festivities.
The sheer scale of China is mind-boggling! Just think about it …
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Thursday, October 08, 2009
Stock Market Consolidation Day Closes Strong, Ends Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets were mixed at the close, as today was mostly a consolidation-type day until the last hour or so. The indices vacillated between 1700 and 1710 on the Nasdaq 100 and between 1050 and 1057 on the S&P 500 over the first couple hours. Then they meandered sideways, drifted lower, tested the lows, and when that was successful they moved steadily higher over the last two hours of trading.
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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Stock Market Thin Range... Earnings Upon Us... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Often we explain why a market gets thin, meaning why it loses its volatility and trades in a narrow range. We have good support at 1044 with 20 resistance at 1060 or the bottom of that now often talked about gap. It's going to take something special, either positive or negative, for this market to make a move and open up things. It could be earnings folks. It should be earnings. We are at the precipice of another earnings season but this earnings season is not an ordinary one.
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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Stock Market Rally Warning, Investors Should Adopt a Defensive Posture / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Markets worldwide have been rallying on the assumption that more of the very same interventionist policies and malfeasance that caused the global financial crisis can in fact cure it. Our analysis of recent events concludes this assumption is misguided for a number of reasons, not least being:
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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Three Reasons Why The Stock Market is Doomed... / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It never ceases to amaze me. After the market turns – even a little bit, as it has the past couple weeks – there seem to be no shortage of I-told-you-so analysts pushing over each other to loudly proclaim on CNBC that we "may" have had a top and there "may" be a pullback, and hand you an umbrella for yesterday's rain. Few tasks prove easier than predicting a 5-10% pullback when 3-4% has already occurred.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Why this is a Bear Market Bounce and Not a New Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
My view that we are in a market bounce is now in the minority but I am still strongly convinced that this is the case for the following reasons:
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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Where and Who Are the Stock Market Bulls? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
Bull markets are said to climb a wall of worry. And during the past week this valued adage came to my mind again and again.
You see, I’ve been travelling quite a bit in Europe … giving speeches and presentations. This gave me the opportunity to talk to many institutional and private investors, and entrepreneurs. And was I ever surprised about how much things have changed!
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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Stock Market Top, Were So Close! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
I’ve shown the below chart several times before. It depicts the S&P 500’s performance since its March 2009 bottom. As you can see, the market has been carving out a near perfect rising bearish wedge: a rally in which the trading range becomes tighter and tighter the higher the market rallies.
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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Gold Tit for Tat, Stocks Are Still A Lousy Investment / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
NOTE: This is a sort of tit-for-tat rebuttal of a classic hatchet piece on Gold as an investment class that recently appeared in the Wall Street Journal (see the article here). All plagiarism is intentional to show the ridiculousness of such articles and if you haven't read the original article, this rant may not make a whole lot of sense.
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Stock Market Bulls Take Back The 20s..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
And the bulls say take that. The emotion of the game is what always makes this the toughest game on the planet. We all have to admit that things looked pretty dire for the bulls there. Negative divergences finally playing out.
Overbought at extremes finally playing out. We were plunging down pretty fast. Right through the 20-day exponential moving averages on all the major indexes on only the second try by the bears.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
S&P 500 Stock Market Trends Analysis for October 2009 / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Starting with the indexes gives an overall perspective to the markets. This is monthly chart for the S&P 500 showing 20 years of performance. Since this index is the one used by professional traders, it is important to understand how it is performing. This chart is also excellent for defining the longer-term trends for the market.
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Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Stocks Bear Market Rally Will Soon Be Over / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
The bear market rally will soon be over. It rallied 1,300 Dow points that it should have. All the back up data as to why this is in process was included in the last issue. The rally induced many investors to stay long and they did recoup as much as 80% of their losses in some instances. Now it is time to exit and move into gold and silver shares. Probably the biggest key is that gold recently spent two weeks above $1,000 and we believe gold is prepared for a breakout that will take its price anywhere from $1,200 to $1,700 an ounce. Gold’s long-term reverse head and shoulders pattern, one of the most powerful patterns in charting is in a breakout mode.
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