Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, December 03, 2009
Global Currency Warfare, Financial Markets Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
This past week was one of utmost turmoil in world markets. In the midst of an American holiday, Dubai faced bankruptcy for some $100 billion. Another unsuspected untoward event. The exposure of the Dubai event coming as it did could have been discovered at any given time, thus, we question the timing. We can understand why the London market was off some 300 Dow points, but exposure to Dubai was very limited in Europe, the US and in Asia. Could it have been an excuse to take down the US and European markets and gold and silver? We do not know, but we have come to question everything that happens.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Stock Market Trend, Nothing Bearish Here.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It is stunning to me to listen to so many who have gotten bearish here. Any selling, especially in a leading stock such as Apple Inc. (AAPL) over the past two days, gets the bears rocking and coming out of the closets. Look, I know there are no guarantee's here as the market could fold over at any time without warning, but I just don't see anything that says things are deteriorating. Not at all. Look at today's advance-decline line on a flat day. Very strong across the board with advancers easily overwhelming the decliners.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
S&P 500 Sets New 2009 High, But Stock Indices Close Mixed / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets had a somewhat volatile session, up sharply in the morning, reached new highs for the year on the S&P 500 but were unable to confirm on the Nasdaq 100. They then rolled over sharply, retested the lows, bounced on two occasions, held the lows, and tried to snapback late in the session, but ended mixed on the day.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Dubai Fiasco Shows the True Nature of Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
"At particular times a great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money... At intervals, from causes which are not to be the present purpose, the money of these people – the blind capital, as we call it, of the country – is particularly large and craving; it seeks for someone to devour it, and there is a 'plethora'; it finds someone and there is 'speculation'; it is devoured and there is 'panic'." – Walter Bagehot, 1826-1877, editor-in-chief of The Economist
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Russian Markets Lose $26 Billion To Dubai World Debt Default News / Stock-Markets / Russia
Dubai World state fund that found itself on a brink of default nearly caused a new world crisis. Due to the information about a possible collapse of the international logistics center, Russian stock market lost approximately $26 billion within a few minutes, experts say. The pa nic did not last long, and the Russian ruble only lost 20 kopeks. Yet, the experts believe that the Russian ruble may lose 10% of its value by the end of the year and another 10% in the first quarter of the next year. This will cause stagnation of the Russian economy and a possibility of a new devaluation.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Stock Market Rally Lacks Volume Ready to Correct / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
A healthy bull run for the stock market must come from rising prices and rising volume. This is an old and time-honored stock market analysis concept, and probably one of the most profound insights into market behavior.
Thus, a rally lacking volume is at least suspicious. And a rally with declining volume is a sign of a weak market and usually a harbinger of a correction if not an outright trend change.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
How to Profit From the Next Dubai / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
Martin Hutchinson writes: The Dubai World default is a matter of only $60 billion – mere peanuts when compared to other elements of the global financial crisis. It’s thus of concern only to those silly enough to invest in real estate there (and the European banks foolish enough to finance it.) For the rest of us, it is a useful reminder that sudden collapses don’t really come out of nowhere – they can be foreseen, and smart investors can plan for them.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Stock Market Indexes Confirm Strength into 2010 / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Going back to the mid-July period of 2009, the time cycle work that I track had confirmed the 07/08/09 low as a combination bottom with the 45 and 90-day cycles. Using a statistical analysis of the larger 90-day component, the probabilities favored that this particular cycle would not see it's following peak made prior to the late-September or early-October period - and thus the assumption was that the SPX was headed toward the low-1100 level or better into October.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
ETF's Signaling Negative Divergence Cluster Warnings for Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
For those of us without a crystal ball, we have to rely upon techniques or signals to get in and out of the markets. These could be moving average crossovers or other more "sophisticated" methods like counting negative divergences, which I have developed and discussed previously. Regardless of what you do, just have a plan. Honor the signals; know where you would get back in if you are wrong.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Stock Market Upside Follow Through / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The indices followed through on yesterday's late comeback rally and gapped up strongly early on, backed off and retested the gap successfully, and then came on and rallied strongly into the mid-afternoon before a last 90-minute rollover brought them off the highs.
Still net on the day the Dow was up 126.74 at 10,471,58, the S&P 500 up 13.23 to 1108.86, and the Nasdaq 100 up 20.28 at 1787.71.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Now The Stock Market Bulls Fail..For Now... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Yes, that's the way it has been for nearly three months now. Each side taking turns missing out on their opportunities once it's right there for the taking. There are enough bulls and enough bears at critical junctures to be sure that no one takes the other side to their demise. Oh so close the other day as the Nasdaq challenged its 50-day exponential moving average. The bulls came in and blasted things right back up.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Stock Market S&P500 Major Trend Change Alert / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Well here we are in the month of December and things can get pretty tricky this month. For this reason, I wanted to produce a video that I thought would be helpful to you during this time.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Stock Market Bears Can't Break It Down....Not Yet Anyway... / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
There just seems to be nothing around that's news worthy of breaking this market down below the 50-day exponential moving averages across the board. We get the Dubai News and the bears come out in droves telling us all that the end is here for the bullish story. The market falls bet yet finds a way to hang in there above support. We have an up open today followed by some good selling that takes the Nasdaq right back to its 50-day exponential moving average but once it gets within two points of this level it bounces very hard. The S&P 500 and Dow didn't come near to their 50's.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Marc Faber Forecasts Financial Collapse / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
In his gloomiest prediction yet, Marc Faber sees big financial bust leading to war:
Marc Faber, the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor, said eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to continued stimulus.
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Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Stock Market Strength Survives / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
With plenty of reasons to fall apart, the market has held up well.Stock Barometer Analysis
The Barometer remains in Sell Mode.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
At Financial Markets and Economic Crossroads / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts
Long time Outside of the Box readers are familiar with John Hussman of the eponymous Hussman Funds. And once again he is my selection for this week's OTB.
This week he touches on several topics, all of which I find interesting. As he notes: "We face two possible states of the world. One is a world in which our economic problems are largely solved, profits are on the mend, and things will soon be back to normal, except for a lot of unemployed people whose fate is, let's face it, of no concern to Wall Street. The other is a world that has enjoyed a brief intermission prior to a terrific second act in which an even larger share of credit losses will be taken, and in which the range of policy choices will be more restricted because we've already issued more government liabilities than a banana republic, and will steeply debase our currency if we do it again. It is not at all clear that the recent data have removed any uncertainty as to which world we are in."
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Monday, November 30, 2009
Stock Market Solid 5-Wave Advance Reverses Morning Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
The markets started out the week on a positive note after some early session choppiness. They were down early at the get-go, rallied to session highs early on, and then rolled over hard to the session lows before noon. They meandered back and forth, held support and then launched a 5-wave advance over the last three hours to close with a solid advance.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
Financial Crash Risk Increasing Exponentially as Derivatives Monster Continues to Grow / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2009
Martin here with an urgent reminder that, despite what you may be hearing from Washington, risk is still a four-letter word.
And despite solemn vows to the contrary, the U.S. government is promoting risk with new-found enthusiasm and gall.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
Stock Market Sector-By-Sector Analysis / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
Yesterday, I noted that this market rally since March 2009 has been one of the most beta-heavy rallies in history. This means that picking out individual investments (individual stocks or companies) has contributed FAR less to investment success than the allocation of one’s money into the right “sector” or “asset.”
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Monday, November 30, 2009
Forget Dubai, This is What Could Cause a Stock Market Plunge / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Last Monday, we reported on the VIX (Volatility Index) and how it had an "Expanding Wedge" pattern.
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