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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Monday, July 09, 2018

Why Trade Wars Are Really Good For The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Avi_Gilburt

If you read most of the analysis being published over the last two days, you would almost assume that the S&P500 should be crashing or be in a bear market. Yet, we are only 4% off the all-time highs struck early this year in the S&P, whereas the Nasdaq and Russell have made new higher highs this summer.

In fact, if you had read the analysis put out over the last two days when further tariffs went into effect, you would have to assume that Friday should have been a major down day in the US markets. This is just an excerpt from a bearish author’s recent article on the US market:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 09, 2018

Are the Stock Market Bulls Starting to Run? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – In spite of  recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 have to extendits corrective phase.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 08, 2018

Breadth is Leading the Stock Market Higher. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The NYSE’s Advance-Decline cumulative line is one of the best breadth indicators for the U.S. stock market. It adds the number of stocks that went up each day and subtracts the number of stocks that went down each day.

This is a long term leading indicator for the stock market.

The Advance-Decline cumulative line just made a new high even though the S&P 500 hasn’t. The Advance-Decline cumulative line hasn’t allowed the S&P’s pullbacks to push it down.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 06, 2018

The Stock Market’s “Turnover Bubble” Isn’t as Bad as it Sounds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Every time you hear words “speculative behavior” used to describe a bull market in stocks,  you should sit back and look at the data carefully.

  1. “Speculative behavior” is mostly code for “the market has gone up a lot, I’ve missed out on a lot of its gains, and this is a bubble but I don’t know when it will top”. In other words, calling something “speculative behavior” is not useful for making trading decisions. Calling something “a bubble” tells you NOTHING about when the market will top.
  2. Nominal data always looks like “speculative behavior” because inflation causes numbers to go up in the long term.
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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 06, 2018

Micron / China Holding Stock Markets Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Just before the July 4th holiday, the US equity markets were about to rally above a defined wedge formation that has been defining price range for the past 7+ days.  As the markets opened on July 3rd, prices had already started to rally and appeared to be ready to rocket higher by a decent amount.  Yet, by early morning, news that China had banned Micron chip sales in a patent case caused the markets to reverse quite steadily.  This news, as it relates to US chip manufacturers and a major part of the NASDAQ, creates a temporary speed bump in the perceived rally that we have been expecting for weeks.

The Technology sector makes up a very large component of the US major indexes.  Other than the DOW, technology firms are spread across nearly every sector of the US major indexes and this case may have some reach to it.  As the trade tariffs and trade issues continue to ramp up, these types of explosive news items can drive the markets up or down as the news hits.  We consider these external factors that push the market one way or another while the core market dynamics may want to drive prices in another direction.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 05, 2018

Stock Market Still No Clear Direction, But S&P 500 Remains Above 2,700 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

There were some positive expectations ahead of the opening of Tuesday's trading session, but then stocks reversed their intraday advance and closed lower. The broad stock market continues to trade within a short-term consolidation. Which direction is next? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.5-0.9% on Tuesday, as investors' sentiment worsened once again. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above the support level of 2,700. It is currently 5.5% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% on Tuesday.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 05, 2018

Corporate Profits are Trending Higher. The Stocks Bull Market Isn’t Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As we’ve demonstrated here at BullMarkets before, the U.S. economy, corporate profits, and stock market all move in the same direction in the medium-long term.

The final reading for Q1 2018 GDP (released June 28, 2018) demonstrates that corporate profits are still rising. And for all the people who think that earnings numbers are “manipulated” via GAAP rules, these are corporate profits according to the IRS. Fact.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

Stock Index Support Zones In Play For Bigger Upside Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

As we start the July 4th trading week, it is time to look at the current market setup for signs of future strength or weakness.  Yes, there is a lot of outside economic and geopolitical factors at play right now that could cause some major market moves, yet we continue to believe the US equities markets are setting up for another upside move after retesting support and shaking out some trades.

Recently, there has been quite a bit of chatter about foreign and US debt levels as well as credit cycle events that many industry leaders are concerned with.  Overall, yes, we have to be cautious of a pricing level revaluation as a result of the credit cycles that are changing.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Stock Market Temporary Bottom Set-Up Needs Follow Through / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Submissions

By Ricky Wen : The last week of June was quite weak as the stock market continued the downward momentum from the 3rd week by grinding down into the major weekly trending support zone around 2700-2720 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) for the backtest.

After Monday's steep sell-off, the rest of the week was mostly consolidation within Monday’s range. The main takeaway from the week was that the market made a temporary bottom setup with the nominal lower low at around 2693 on the ES and back into the 2740 area resistance. It is now waiting for some follow through this week, or invalidation if that was not the low.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Negative Expectations, but.. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks failed to continue their short-term rebound on Friday and they closed virtually flat. The S&P 500 index extended its short-term consolidation, as it remained above the level of 2,700 on the last trading day of the month and the quarter. But was it a bottoming pattern or just some flat correction before another leg lower? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Friday, as the investors hesitated following Thursday's rebound off support level. The S&P 500 index extended its week-long consolidation. It currently trades 5.3% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% on the last trading day of the month and the quarter.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Bucks “Sell in May and Go Away”. A Bullish Sign / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As you probably already know, the stock market’s seasonality is bearish from May – September. That’s where the phrase “Sell in May and go Away” comes from.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 02, 2018

Stock Market Step Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend – Due to recent market action, the intermediate trend from 2873 may be extending its corrective phase.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 01, 2018

Stock Market Crash Even if China and the Trump Make Up? Currencies Think So / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Graham_Summers

As we noted earlier this week, China, tired of the “back and forth” with the Trump administration on trade negotiations, has resorted to devaluing the Yuan.

The goal here was to induce another sharp sell-off in stocks, similar to the ones induced by China’s August 2015 and January 2016 devaluations. By the way, those last two devaluations (red boxes) resulted in the S&P 500 dropping 11% and 12% in less than one week.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Stock Market’s Price Action Starting to Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

As always, the economy’s fundamentals determine the stock market’s medium-long term outlook. Technicals determine the stock market’s short-medium term outlook. Here’s why:

  1. The stock market’s long term is bullish.
  2. The stock market’s medium term is bullish.
  3. The stock market’s short term is turning bullish (with Trump’s trade war as a wild card)

Let’s go from the long term, to the medium term, to the short term.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, June 30, 2018

Trade Tariff War Akin to Raising Taxes, Recession Looms / Stock-Markets / Protectionism

By: MoneyMetals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book, The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.

Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Frank Holmes: I'm great, and it's great to be chatting with you about this languishing gold market.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 29, 2018

Stock Markets Hyper Risky / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

The lofty US stock markets remain riddled with euphoria and complacency, fueled by an exceptional bull.  Investors believe downside risks are trivial, despite long years of epic central-bank easing catapulting valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes.  This has left today’s markets hyper-risky, with a massive bear looming as the Fed and ECB increasingly slow and reverse their easy-money policies.  Caveat emptor!

History proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever.  Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses then give up their ghosts.  Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse.  Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes.  All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 29, 2018

Stock Market Window Dressing Day / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures went as high as 2737.00 (~2732.00 cash) this morning before pulling back. There is still a probability of the retracement rally probing the mid-Cycle resistance at 2742.03, which is an approximate 50% retracement of the decline. Thus far this quarter has seen nearly a 3% gain in the SPX and today would be an important window dressing day.

Wave [i] of 1 would be considered a Leading Diagonal, while Waves [iii] and [v] appear to be impulsive. There is a cluster of Cycle Pivots starting today and going through the weekend. The first Cycle Pivot occurs around 1:00 pm today.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 29, 2018

Traders Buy Markets When They Cry, Sell When They Yell! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We have been pouring over the charts to find out what to expect over the rest of 2018 and our advanced predictive modeling tools are showing us a few key elements that all traders need to be aware of.  So, let’s get right to it.

First, the NASDAQ has likely neared or reached its peak near 7400 for the next few months.  Don’t expect the NQ to move much beyond 7400 and don’t expect a lot of volatility in the NQ over the next few months.  Our research shows the NQ should stall near 7400 and volatility should decrease through September (possibly).

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Stock-Markets

Friday, June 29, 2018

For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI


See illustrations of complete bull and bear market cycles

You may have heard pundits on financial television say something like, "I see support for the Dow at this price level," or "This stock should experience some resistance at that price level."

So, what do these analysts mean by support and resistance?

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 28, 2018

More Market Uncertainty as Stocks Keep Bouncing Up and Down / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Paul_Rejczak

Wednesday's trading session was bearish, as the main U.S. stock market indexes reversed their intraday uptrend and closed lower. Stocks bounced off the support level following Monday's sell-off, but they failed to continue higher. Will the market continue lower today? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios.

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.7% and 1.5% on Wednesday, as the investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index remains close to 2,700 mark and it currently trades 6.0% below the January's 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.7% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 1.5%, as it was relatively weaker than the broad stock market on Wednesday.

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