Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Corporate Earnings Forecasts For 2011 Wariness / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Looking past the initial upbeat Q2 earnings reports, and discounting the optimistic $90+ S&P 500 operating earnings forecasts for 2011, we feel a nagging wariness about 2011 (just 6 months away).
That wariness is based on the enormous tax effect in January, along with the, by then, rising awareness of further tax hikes in subsequent years for national healthcare; and concern about the AMT capturing more families. Those are just federal taxes in the US, but state and local taxes are rising too; and tax rates are or must rise in other indebted countries as well. On top of all that is the backdrop of eventual stimulus withdrawal.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Forecasts for the Economy and Financial Markets 2010-2012 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Good or bad, everyone likes a forecast. Usually, forecasters like to issue them at the end or the beginning of the year but I thought that now would be a good time to review past forecasts and issue some new or updated ones.
Entering the fray with forecasting can be a dicey pursuit. No matter how confident you are about the outcome of your prognosticating, the unknown variables can pop up at any time. As much as possible, I embark on forecasts that I believe are not an “if”…but a “when”. I may get it wrong in the short-term but the final outcome is in the long-term.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
The Dynamic Web and the Fibonacci S&P Golden Ratio Support at 1013.14 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Those who followed the research of the late great market forecaster PQ Wall will recall his concept of the Dynamic Web for market price analysis. My Fibonacci price grid research builds on PQ’s Dynamic Web research. A brief review of PQ’s approach helps explain how Fibonacci price grids bring additional clarity and powerful investing and trading tools to the Dynamic Web approach.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Digesting JP Morgans Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks flat lined and failed to make it seven up on hump day, as a drop in retail sales and the Federal Reserve’s assessment that the economic outlook has “softened” trumped Intel upbeat forecast for record profit. Home Depot, American Express and Alcoa all felt the down draft and declined the most in the Dow as minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed policy makers saw no need to boost economic stimulus even as they trimmed growth forecasts but stocks did pare losses in the final minutes of trading.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Preparing for a Monsoon Stock Market Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The market continues upward in either a C wave or Wave 2 corrective upside re-tracement if I’m correct. In reviewing the pattern since the April top this year, we have had clear Fibonacci retracement levels of the 13 month rally. These occurred at 1040 and 1011 areas so far, 31% and 38% fibonaci re-tracement levels of the Fibonacci 13 month rally.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
China Shanghai Ready For It's Stocks Bear Market Birthday / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market
China is 2-3 weeks away from being ONE FULL YEAR into it's most recent bear market leg. Amazingly, despite the old retrospectoscope pointing out that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ($SSEC) peaked on August 4th of 2009, people are still looking to the "miracle growth story" of China to lead the world out of its slump. This goes to show how long the average investor can be deceived into thinking a burst bubble can re-inflate. It is the same scenario as people wanting to believe the housing market was coming back last year. Or this year. Or next year. Ain't gonna happen, folks, so move along.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Stock Market Mixed, Narrow Close to Choppy Session / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices ended near the zero-line today and were mixed and choppy. The day started out with a move up off the opening, followed by a quick pullback that held support, and then they were off to the races again. The indices had a sharp move on the Nasdaq 100, twice making new rally highs, but the S&P 500 did not cooperate and could not even get over yesterday's late high.
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Thursday, July 15, 2010
Fed Says Economy Is Toast.... Stock Market Shrugs It Off For Now... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
WOW!!!! Fed Bernanke came out and said the economy won't recover for five to six years. When did he suddenly get so enlightened?!! He didn't know that until now? He didn't see this coming? Seriously? He went from we're recovering just fine to five to six years. Good job commander!!! We're so proud of you.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Corporate Earnings Season Optimism... / Stock-Markets / Corporate Earnings
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Are Stocks Currently Cheap? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Perma-shills have been claiming of late that the stock market is now trading at an enticing valuation. Their main evidence for this, as they are fond to claim, is that the forward Price to earnings multiple is 12 times next year’s earnings for the S&P 500. And, of course, a 12 PE multiple makes stocks cheap and the overall market a buy.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
European Stock Markets Pause After 6 Up Days / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks surged again on Tuesday, extending the longest rally for the S&P 500 in three months, as improving outlooks from companies such as Alcoa and Novellus bolstered confidence. Aluminium producer Alcoa, the first company in the Dow to report second quarter results, gained a further 1.2% as sales and profit exceeded analysts’ estimates and the company forecast stronger global demand. Novellus rose 5.8%. Infact all four S&P 500 companies that reported results between market’s close yesterday and the start of trading this morning topped the average analyst estimate for per-share profits.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
China Diversifying Out of U.S. Dollar Holdings / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Every month, the world buys BILLIONS of dollars worth of toys, shoes, electronics, clothes, and consumer goods from China.
Every month, China enjoys a trade surplus that brings in BILLIONS of new dollars into its coffers.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Latest ECRI Economic Leading Indicator Confirms Bearish Stock Outlook! / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
In last week’s Money and Markets column, I recommended getting out of the stock market. This was based on my cyclical model having turned bearish. Plus there was a clear breakout of the S&P 500 and many other global indexes from their well-formed, topping formations.
On the same day my column came out, stock markets around the world started a nice rally … and in just three days the S&P 500 was up nearly 5 percent!
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Stock Market At trend Line On S&P 500.. Dow Above.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
And yes, it is overbought on the short-term charts. A pullback of 15 or so S&P 500 points can occur at any moment in time, or possibly even a bit more. It seems that the positive divergence on the MACD at the lows, along with the 30-RSI readings and 2% bull bear spread, has put the bottom in for this market for the short-term. It doesn't mean we don't get decent pullbacks. We will. However, it does also appear that the market can now chop its way higher back to the 1131 area over time, which will allow for decent gains on long plays.
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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Stock Market Indices Extend Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a stellar day on Tuesday and extended the rally sharply. The day started out with a gap up. They pulled back, backed and filled, and then popped until mid-day to the morning highs at 1844 on the Nasdaq 100 and the 1097 area on the S&P 500.
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Pakistan Value and Growth Investment Opportunity,A Contrarian Investor’s Paradise / Stock-Markets / Pakistan
BMA write:
- Pakistan offers a unique investment opportunity given its geographical location
- Lowest cost land route to Central Asian countries
- Location advantage promoting infrastructure development
- Pakistan has the potential to become one of Asia’s premier trade, energy and transport corridor
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Corporate CEOs Won't Invest in America, Why Should You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
There is no end of economists, analysts, and reporters filling the air with investment recommendations. Is the stock market oversold? Should we invest for inflation or deflation? And so on.
That is talk. American CEOs are voting with their feet. Since they aren't investing in the United States, does it make sense for the individual stockholder or bondholder to do so?
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Stock Markets Satisfied With Early Corporate Earnings Reports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
U.S. stocks rose again Monday, adding to gains from the biggest weekly rally in a year for the S&P 500 Index, as analyst upgrades of technology companies boosted optimism before the start of the earnings season. SanDisk Corp. surged 6.8% as UBS advised buying the shares, while Qualcomm saw its shares jump 3.5% on a broker upgrade at Goldman Sachs who added the stock to its “conviction buy” list. Hewitt Associates soared 32% after Aon agreed to buy the consulting company. A total of 23 companies in the S&P 500, including Google, Intel. and Citigroup will report earnings this week alone.
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Stock Market Trend, It's All About Bonds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
At 10 times the size of the stock market, the bond selling can continue to fuel further gains.
Bonds are a powerful force and can create a huge amount of liquidity to fuel advances. Watch what happens to oil today.
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Stock Market Bears Beware II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In my last article Bear's Beware I warned that shorts were running the risk of getting caught in an explosive rally as the intermediate cycle was due to bottom. Well, it did bottom and bears have watched their profits quickly evaporate as the market has surged out of the intermediate cycle low.
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