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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, February 18, 2022

Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My timely analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond) that laid the ground work for how to invest during the anticipated waves of deep deviations from the highs in each of the stocks one by one that concluded in the following table of how low I expected each of the stocks to trade down to as a guide to where to target he bulk of ones planned buying in favour of those stocks that presented the greatest low to high potential price move.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, February 18, 2022

Crypto Will Devour the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / cryptocurrency

By: Stephen_McBride


Longtime RiskHedge readers know crypto is one of the best moneymaking opportunities in the world. Cryptos like Ethereum (ETH) have outperformed even the hottest stocks by 10X in the past few years.

And we’re still only in the first inning of this opportunity. For example, did you know Apple (AAPL) is larger than the entire crypto market?

This fact alone makes my big call sound totally absurd…

Crypto will devour the stock market.
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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 17, 2022

Stock Market Stumbling Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 rebound goes on reflexively, but stormy clouds are gathering – I‘m looking for the bears to reassert themselves over the next couple of days latest. The credit markets posture is far from raging risk-on even though select commodities are recovering (what else to expect in a secular commodities bull) and precious metals suffered a modest setback (not a reversal though). Crypto recovery is nodding towards the risk-on upturn that is though likely to get checked soon.

It‘s great that tech was the driver of yesterday‘s S&P 500 upswing, but for how long would it keep leadership now that attention is shifting back towards inflation. Yesterday I wrote that:

(...) rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.

So far the stock market advance hasn‘t met a brick wall, but value upswing has been sold into (unlike tech‘s). Energy stocks lost, but are likely to come back – and the next microrotation might not be powerful enough to carry S&P 500 higher. Anyway without a HYG upswing, stock bulls are facing stiff headwinds.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Stock Market Mean Reversion / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused further downside yesterday, and while credit markets didn‘t move much, rebound looks approaching as stocks might lead bonds in the risk appetite. When the East European tensions get dialed down, S&P 500 can be counted on to lead, probably more so when it comes to value than tech. That‘s why the tech participation is key as it would make up for the evaporating risk premium in energy. Or precious metals – these are likely to rise once again when the spotlight shifts to the inadequacy of Fed‘s tightening in the inflation fight.

For now, the war drums took the limelight away, but don‘t count on gold, silver or oil correcting significantly and lastingly. Cryptos are supporting the return of risk-on as the touted war just isn‘t happening either today or tomorrow, and market participants are dialing back the panicky bets. That‘s why Treasuries and tech movements are so key these days – copper trading shows that we‘re in for paring back of the fire sales. I can‘t call it a full fledged stock market reversal, not yet.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Stocks Fall as Gold and Oil Jumps Amid Tension Over Ukraine – FED / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The FED has made it very clear that it will raise its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. This could have severe consequences and even lead to a financial crisis. They are too far behind the curve and will be labeled a major policy error in the future, most likely. They have put themselves in a situation where they are now their own hostage. They need more leadership to describe what a soft landing is going to look like. They have been too slow to act, and now they are going too fast. The “Powell Put” has now been put out to pasture.

We believe that the FED will make more rate hikes than they have announced. Goldman Sachs thinks there will be four 25-basis-point increases in the federal funds rate in 2022. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said, “he wouldn’t be surprised if there were even more interest rate hikes than that in 2022. There’s a pretty good chance there will be more than four. There could be six or seven. I grew up in a world where Paul Volcker raised his rates 200 basis points on a Saturday night.”

Mr. James Bullard of the St. Louis FED spoke out in an arrogant tone that aggressive action is now required. The markets translated this to mean that the FED was going to call an emergency meeting as soon as this coming week to hike interest rates by no less than 50 basis points. This sent interest rates soaring and stock prices plummeting.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Hot New Inflation Reading Spotlights Fed Failures / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

Another hotter than expected inflation report jolted markets this week.

On Thursday, the Labor Department released the latest Consumer Price Index report. The CPI surged 7.5% in January from a year earlier. That exceeded most forecasts and marked a new four-decade high for consumer price increases. Brian Cheung of Yahoo Finance gives his take on the situation:

Brian Cheung: Price’s (are) rising in the United States across the board by 0.6% on a month-over-month basis. If you index it over a year-over-year period, 7.5% was the growth that we had seen in the report. That is well above the Street's estimates of 7.3% and continues to ratchet up. We've seen Joe Biden talk very frequently, lately, anytime he has the podium about the impact of inflation on Americans. That's because this is becoming a huge and already is becoming a huge political issue for him. Now, of course, all eyes are not just on the White House, in Congress where they engineer fiscal policy, from the Federal Reserve as well -- where the extraordinary monetary stimulus has obviously led to some sort of demand push that is leading to inflation that is not fading as fast as Federal Reserve officials had originally hoped or messaged in the beginning of 2021. That's going to be a very interesting story as we get to that mid-March meeting where the Fed is expected to start raising rates.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 10, 2022

INVESTORS SEDUCED by CNBC and the STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS the BIG PICTURE! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Have you capitalised on the stock investing lemmings as they leapt off the investing cliff as I and many of my patrons / readers have been doing? If not why not?

For instance during the PANIC I have expanded my exposure to my select list of AI tech stocks form 22.7% to 36.9%.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 10, 2022

Is it time to buy the Stock Market Dip? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Stephen_McBride

By Justin Spittler : Is it time to buy the dip?

After all, the stock market has been a sea of red lately.

Many former highflyers are down 50%... 60%... even 70%.

That has many investors salivating to buy “cheap” shares.

And I get it…

Buying the dip can be a great money-making strategy.

But I don’t think that’s the play here.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, February 10, 2022

"A Stock Market Top for the Ages" Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

Hi reader,

In late 2021, Elliott Wave International Founder and President Robert Prechter gave a rare, live presentation -- "A Stock Market Top for the Ages" -- at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. The recording comprises Prechter's December 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist.

And now our friends at EWI are sharing it with you free ($99 value).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 08, 2022

Reform of the G 7 and the City of London Corporation needed as a matter of urgency. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: Christopher_Quigley

Nicholas Shaxon:
"Wealthy individuals hold over 10 trillion dollars offshore….However, the IMF estimates …… that the balance sheets of small island financial centres alone added up to 18 trillion dollars".

The Group of Seven (G-7) is an intergovernmental organization made up of the world's largest developed economies: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. Government leaders of these countries meet periodically to address international economic and monetary issues, with each member taking over the presidency on a rotating basis.

In response to the Panama Papers on off-shore banking operations in South America (released by WikiLeaks) the European Commission set up a commission of investigation. Its recommendations are outlined below. However, to date, the G 7 and the City of London Corporation have refused to adopt such measures. This is despite the fact that the G 7 adopted a specific mandate to adopt strategies to aid third world spiralling debt.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 07, 2022

INVESTORS SEDUCED BY STOCK CHARTS COMPLETELY MISS THE THE BIG PICTURE! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Given some of the comments I tend to get, (without mentioning anyone) illustrates that many people are STILL failing to fully grasp what we are dealing with here, the AI stocks are NOT NORMAL CORPORATIONS! THEY ARE ON AN EXPONENTIAL TREND TRAJECTORY!

And that exponential reality is QUANTUM AI!

Instead investors are getting seduced by standardised charts of every stock, throwing random names about just because they have fallen x%, perhaps buoyed by one of the more useful metrics, a low PE ratio to entertain thoughts of investing. All of which acts to dilute what is actually taking place as most investors focus is usually in the wrong place, permanently hinged on a few droplets of water that are the quarterly earnings reports at the expense of ignoring the ocean that is the Quantum AI mega-trend.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, February 05, 2022

THE Stock Market VALUATION RESET Explained / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The valuation reset is the rotation out of over valued growth stocks the pinnacle of which populate Cathy Wood's ARK funds and into under valued low PE usually dividend paying stocks as the following illustrates for the Russell Small cap stocks where high value stocks were bid up to to fever pitch ridiculous valuations whilst the value stocks were largely neglected by the market and as you can see we are a long way from the value reset from running it's course so this could play out for most of 2022. Where our AI tech stocks are concerned this translates into the higher the PE stocks facing greater downwards pressure for the likes of Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft and Amazon. Conversely the lower the PE stocks should see upwards pressure especially for dividend paying stocks such as IBM, Intel, GPN, LMT and so on into the biotech's.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 02, 2022

High Risk Bio and Tech Stocks and the Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Did you buy Google (Alphabet) near $2512 last week as I and many of my patrons did, and similar for many other AI tech stocks?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 02, 2022

Stock Market Panic Selling - Can FED Engineer A Soft Landing For The Biggest Bubble We’ve Ever Seen? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Taking into account the Fed comments from last week, recently one of our technical analysts forecasted a correct S&P Index price range of $4348 to $4261. The market has since corrected to that level and is now bouncing.

With that said, investors have been panicking with the SPY ETF having an average outflow of more than $1 billion per day over the past ten days.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, February 02, 2022

Stock Market Rally Getting Long in the Tooth / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 recoverd the opening setback at 4,500, and the low volume behind the upswing coupled with credit market reversal shows that the push towards 4,600 is next – but it would be fraught with internal vulnerability. It‘s that value has welcomed the risk-on turn while tech barely prevented lower values – the bond reprieve won‘t last, and is providing more fuel behind the commodities push higher, and precious metals recovery.

The Kashkari effect and good ISM Manufacturing PMIs have worked fine, but the services data awaits. And I‘m looking at it to throw a spanner in the works, a modest one. For now, controlling the overall risk is key – fresh portfolio highs were achieved yesterday as new S&P 500 long profits were taken off the table – and commodities with precious metals are likely to do well in this extended (sticking out like a sore thumb) rally off oversold levels (in tech). The other key thought expressed in the linked tweet is that S&P 500 hasn‘t entered a bear market, that it hasn‘t rolled over to the downside for good. It‘s that I expect the return of the bears in the not too distant future, and a smoother sailing in 2H 2022.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 01, 2022

The Quantum Entangled Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The FAANG stocks are entangled with one another, which is why the likes of Amazon is still holding up there with the likes of Apple and Microsoft. and why we don't tend to get many opportunities to accumulate in the FAANG stocks at deep discounts because to get an opportunity means we are going to have to wait for an opportunity in ALL of the FAANG+ stocks to materialise.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Nadeem_Walayat

STOCK MARKET CRASH INDICATOR

It looks like my last article freighted a lot of patrons, which was not my intention for I already flagged that the risks of a market panic event have been increasingly long before the neural net signaled a 100%+ reading. It is what it is, an independant indicator which increases the probability for lower prices going forward hence I revised my stock market expectations lower as illustrate by the updated stock market trend forecast graph.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Warren Buffetts $130 billion 2022 Investing Master Plan / Stock-Markets / Investing 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sat on $130 billion of cash. Why? Waiting for the inevitable panic event? Then why didn't Berkshire Hathaway buy in March 2020?

No, Warren Buffett master plans is this -

When the markets starts to crash / roll over into a bear market the naked longs facing forced sales will seek out investors to buy them out of their positions else the the markets would face a cascade of forced panic selling and where would they look for that buyer of last resort who has advertised to all well in advance that they have a mountain of cash? Warren Buffett who will likely be able to pick up positions in his target stocks at deep discounts to market prices.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Fed Comments Help To Settle Global Stock Market Expectations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent Fed comments should have helped settle the global market expectations related to if and when the Fed will start raising rates and/or taking further steps to curb inflation trends. Additionally, the Fed has been telegraphing its intentions very clearly over the past few months, providing ample time for traders and investors to alter their approach to pending monetary tightening actions. Read the full Fed Statement here.

In my opinion, foreign markets are more likely to see increased risks and declining price trends for two reasons. First, at-risk nations/borrowers struggle to reduce debt levels. Second, foreign market traders/investors struggle to adapt to the transition away from speculative “growth” trends. I think the US Dollar may continue to show strength over the next 4+ months as the foreign traders pile into US economic strength while the Fed initiates their tightening actions. So it makes sense to me that global markets would recoil from Fed tightening while debt-heavy corporations/nations seek relief from rising debt obligations.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, January 30, 2022

Should Investors Fear Fed Interest Rate Hikes? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The prospect of Federal Reserve rate hikes continues to rattle Wall Street and cloud the outlook for precious metals.

On Wednesday, the central bank strongly signaled it will raise its benchmark Fed funds rate for the first time in three years – likely at its March policy meeting.

Policymakers noted that inflation is running “well above” target and also claimed a “strong labor market” justifies a degree of monetary tightening.

"There's quite a bit of room to raise interests without threatening the labor market,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell said, adding, “wages are moving up at the highest pace they have in decades."

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