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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, May 05, 2023

How "Insane Optimism" is at Work in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: EWI

"Stock investors are so bullish that they are..."

Many technical indicators are highly useful, yet the price moves of the stock market really boil down to two things: optimism and pessimism.

Major trend turns tend to occur when extremes are reached in either optimism or pessimism.

Most recently, optimism has been in charge. The question is: Has an extreme been reached?

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 30, 2023

QE-Light Forestalls Crisis…For Now / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street's soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust growth. And the other, and more accurate scenario, where inflation falls because of a recession.

You just can't get the ROC of inflation and growth to increase when money supply growth plunges from 27% in 2021 to one that is contracting by 4%, as of the latest March data. 
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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 29, 2023

Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.

Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Stock Market Trend to New Bull Market High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Current Trend

The S&P remains in a downtrend i.e. lower highs and lows and thus continues to target a break of 3800 on the short-term basis. In terms of swings the correction could extend to as deep as 3745 though I doubt it will go that low, more likely will bounce around between 3890 and 3780 for a few days.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Never bet Bgainst America unless… / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: Stephen_McBride

Warren Buffett’s latest move might surprise you… US stocks are passing the torch... Plus, a dead-simple way to invest in this big shift…

  1. When Warren Buffett makes an unusual move… pay attention.

Buffett is likely the best investor of all time.

His firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) delivered an average annual return of 20% from 1965 to 2022, which turned a $1,000 investment into $38 million.

Buffett is known for buying large stakes in iconic American companies. He’s invested billions of dollars into brands like Apple (AAPL)Coca-Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Destabilizing Debt Ensures the Financial Crisis Has Just Begun / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023

By: Michael_Pento

The debt-disabled U.S. economy cannot withstand the surge in borrowing costs, and the reduction in
money supply growth necessary to combat the record-high inflation suffered over the past few years.
Our beloved U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the American economy remains
strong and its banking system is resilient. That is, if you close your mind and overlook the recent
bankruptcy of three financial institutions. Keep in mind this is the same person who assured us that we
would never see another financial crisis in our lifetime. So, it is self-serving for her to deflect attention
away from the economic meltdown that is on the horizon.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Stock Market Sucking in Buyers / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 bears missed a good intraday opportunity after winning for 6 hrs in the regular session. For all the market breadth limping along, it was Russell 2000, financials and industrials with materials that did well, no matter what energy, precious metals and cryptos see on the horizon.

Bearish divergencies in advancing-declining issues, new high-new lows, even merely stocks above the 50-day moving averages in S&P 500 and Nasdaq – amply described yesterday together with earnings, job market and manufacturing (LEIs) data ahead, haven‘t invalidated the medium-term bearish case for stocks. For all the shrinking liquidity talked, this rally is proceeding – sell in May and go away“ seasonal effect would be weaker than usual.

(…) Disruptive tech (AI driving semiconductors) remains well placed. … So, we have tech stocks to outperform value in the current low growth environment, would the thinking go, however if you check market breadth in Nasdaq, the bearish divergence in the making is even worse than in S&P 500. It‘s the big names and semiconductors holding it up, while advance-decline line and new highs-new lows are largely struggling.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 10, 2023

Stock Markets Counting Down to US CPI Inflation Data Release / Stock-Markets / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.

Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 03, 2023

Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 01, 2023

America on Verge of Losing Petrodollar Privilege / Stock-Markets / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

As gold prices continue to hold firm near the $2,000 level, bulls are eying big developments ahead for the monetary metal along with the global monetary system.

Gold’s potential ascendancy to new record highs is coinciding with a decline in the global status of the U.S. dollar as world’s reserve currency.

China is pushing for its currency, the yuan, to be the primary competitor to the dollar in international trade. It has forged new partnerships with Russia and other countries who are willing to deal directly in Chinese yuan.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 24, 2023

How the Stock Market Reacts to US CPI Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US CPI Data released for October, November, December and January show the CPLIE script of usually a fake out drop ahead or on release followed by strong rally on relief that whatever the data is, it was not quite as bad as it could have been and thus triggers a FOMO rally fed by bears shorting during the preceding decline rushing to cover their shorts, and so are we in for a similar event Tuesday? or is this time going to be more like December, the only time when there was a deviation from the script as it was looking rather obvious by then and hence the market did the opposite, what is obvious right now? Probably a FOIMO rally, so on face value suggests to expect the opposite which is what I have been positioning towards these past weeks.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, March 24, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and "The Everything Bust" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023

By: EWI

Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and "The Everything Bust"
"The pressure on banks will rise"

The phrase "Everything Bust" means a bust in just about every financial risk-asset of which you can think, as well as the economy and, I dare say, the financial system itself.

Indeed, in a section titled "The Everything Bust Is on The Way," the December Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, noted:

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Stock Market Completes Phase Transition, US Real Estate Stocks - Housing Market Part1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually everyone was open jawed last week as to why the hell are stock prices soaring on BAD EARNINGS reports and yes regardless of how the headless chickens on the cartoon network (CNBC) were reacting in trying to explain the price action they were BAD EARNINGS reports as flagged by the EGF's which had zero impact on stock prices that instead of plunging soared into the stratosphere, why? It's because earnings reports are looking in the rear view mirror at what has already happened which is why one needs to be aware of current EGF and future EGF as well as current P/E relative to the high-low P/E range for each stock as shown in my AI stocks table. Our perception of time is not linear as we flit from the past (memories) into the future (forecasts, hopes and dreams) and back into the present, in a constant state of flux and so it is for all market participants which is the true nature of the markets, everything, everywhere all at once.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, March 16, 2023

Macro transition; Goldilocks now, Deflation later / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Gary_Tanashian

Since projecting the Q4-Q1 broad market rally back in November, we have been managing a macro transition within this rally. Based on the leadership of the Semiconductor sector and Tech, it has been dubbed a “Goldilocks” (inflationary pressures not too hot, not too cold) transition, as inflationary pressures ease (the inflation has come and gone, while it’s lagging supply chain and services related effects linger on) and the former inflation trades under-perform.

There is a word for what supply chain and related services are doing and it’s called “gouging” by opportunistic entities squeezing the inflation hysteria for all it is worth. But I digress.

While waiting for the gold stock sector to truly become unique (not quite yet) in the post-bubble environment an honest look at the macro will yield a developing fundamentally positive view for gold mining (details beyond the scope of this article), but also insofar as the macro transition from Goldilocks to deflation has not yet come about, a hell of a lot of quality Tech/Growth stocks beaten down and looking to rally (actually, many have already begun to rally).

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 06, 2023

Stocks Bull Market Milestones / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chat AI War has begun! You thought it was game over with Open AI GPT? That is just the start! In fact I consider GPT a toddler compared to Google's Einstein! Because GOOGLE MONETIZES their AI to the tune of $40 billion per quarter! It's called Google SEARCH! Whilst Microsoft is onto a winner of sorts, however it isn't going to even come close to dethroning Google!

Woo hoo mission accomplished on run to S&P 4040! What mission? Trimming! Cash on accounts up from 7% a couple of weeks ago 10.8% today, trust me having adequate cash on account makes a big difference to ones investing psychology, the difference between fearing price drops to anticipating them even if one is near 90% invested, so maybe those skimming along at near 100% invested need to look into trimming, for me 12% cash is my current goldilocks zone as a function of the accounts I hold i.e. a wide spectrum from those designed for high turnover such as Etorro right trough to the glacial Interactive Investor and AJ Bell where one is reluctant to act due to rip off fees, which is actually a good thing for the long run.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Current State of the Stocks Stealth Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow closed Monday at 33,629 vs the trend forecast road map of 32,750, so the Dow continues to show a positive deviation against the forecast of +2.7%, up from the +2.2% deviation as of 9th of Jan.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Stock Market Every thing Every Where All At Once! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Virtually everyone was open jawed last week as to why the hell are stock prices soaring on BAD EARNINGS reports and yes regardless of how the headless chickens on the cartoon network (CNBC) were reacting in trying to explain the price action they were BAD EARNINGS reports as flagged by the EGF's which had zero impact on stock prices that instead of plunging soared into the stratosphere, why? It's because earnings reports are looking in the rear view mirror at what has already happened which is why one needs to be aware of current EGF and future EGF as well as current P/E relative to the high-low P/E range for each stock as shown in my AI stocks table. Our perception of time is not linear as we flit from the past (memories) into the future (forecasts, hopes and dreams) and back into the present, in a constant state of flux and so it is for all market participants which is the true nature of the markets, everything, everywhere all at once.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Monday, February 20, 2023

Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Did you catch the Pump into last weeks US CP LIE data followed by the Dump? What happen's next - Stock Market Counting Down to Pump and Dump US CPI LIE Inflation Data Release

The Santa rally that runs for 7 trading days into the start of each new year expired on the 4th of January and believe it or not technically we actually got a Santa rally, the 7th straight Santa rally in a row.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, February 20, 2023

Silent Killers of Stock and Bond Investors 50+ / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a single one of them knew what drawdowns were, as there are two types. In short, it is how we gauge an overall investment strategy’s risk level so you know if a given approach fits within your risk tolerance.

I did a survey several years ago that still blows my mind because the results were so backwards and frustrating. To this day, I’m experiencing the same thing with traders and investors, so I want to talk about it here – drawdowns and what you may not know about them.

A drawdown measures how much an investment or trading account is down from its highest point. It is used to quantify the extent of loss suffered by an investor or trader during a period of market decline. A drawdown is expressed as a percentage. Also, the maximum drawdown (MaxDD) is the largest percentage drop from the account’s highest point to its lowest point over the life of the strategy, which in laymen’s terms, is the largest loss.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, February 19, 2023

The Truth No One Wants to Hear about Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2023

By: Submissions

By Justin Spittler : I’ve been getting under some people’s skin.

And it’s because I’ve been unapologetically bullish for the last couple months.

I get it. No one wants to hear the bull argument after the horrible year we just had in stocks.

But things have changed.

Many investors haven’t entertained the possibility that last year’s bear market is over.

They’re certain the stock market will head much lower.

Their arguments sound something like: “Inflation is still too high; the economy is speeding toward a recession; the Fed isn’t done raising rates.”
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