Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, February 29, 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets / Stock-Markets / HyperInflation
By: Raymond_Matison
U.S. equities market was strong in 2023, and after a decline in 2022, rose by 20% last year as measured by the S&P 500 Index. In addition, that index rose above 5,000 for the first time ever in the early part of the 2024 year. Surely, it must be because our economy is strong - as key government officials including our president have assured us. Or maybe not?! You can decide for yourself as key issues are evaluatedherein. We will compare our current equity market performance with a period 100 years ago with its implications for our future financial markets. We will look at the concept of self-custody for assets from gold to bank money deposits, to a securities stock and bond account and the custody of digital assets. We examine how America’s proxy war efforts are affecting our budget deficit, and the dire need for additional debt/money issueance promoting product price inflation, and asset inflation. We examine America’s profligate spending challenging a growing BRICS coalition promoting global de-dollarization, and its effects on our fiat currency’s value, alternative currencies and implications for adoption and value of Web 3 digital assets.
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Monday, February 19, 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks / Stock-Markets / Investing 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My focus for much of 2023 was to what degree one would get lucky in ones target stocks during the year, as it can be a case of playing with fire to heavily trim ones holdings, especially the primary and secondary AI tech stocks, all because one thinks one can then rebuy on the next dip. In which respect 2023 proved to be a great year because we got lucky TWICE during the year! Firstly March's correction to S&P 3800, can you imagine that the S&P traded down to 3800 in March! And then again following the July high of 4600 all the way down to 4100! Which even I had started to give up on happening given support at 4200.
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Saturday, February 17, 2024
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend / Stock-Markets / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US CP LIE Inflation has been moderating, largely due to the base effect as surge in inflation a year ago leaves the annual inflation indices thus giving the illusion of inflation being under control hence the focus of econofools. Whilst there is also real world impact of weak European and Chinese economies, that and the effect of base rate rises feeding through should continue to put downward pressure on CPI until at least release of Feb data in March 2024, after which inflation could tick higher to back over 3% for the rest of the year.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Firstly my latest video explaining how I accumulate and distribute (Trim) stock positions to maximise profits
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Stocks Bull Market Commands It All For Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
After writing publicly for over 13 years, I have come to notice that the landscape has very much changed. There were many through the years that have attempted to take me to task for my differing perspective on the market. Many simply could not understand how I am able to ignore exogenous factors, yet still be able to accurately identify turning points in the market while staying on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time.
When I look around now, many of them are no longer around. Yet, we are still here guiding investors through the turbulence of the various market machinations we have experienced over the last 13 years.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Financial Markets Narrative Nonsense / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
The term "narrative" is defined as "a story that you write or tell to someone, usually in great detail. A narrative can be a work of poetry or prose, or even song, theater, or dance. Often, a narrative is meant to include the "whole story." A summary will give a few key details, and then the narrative will delve into the details."
This perfectly describes the manner in which financial assets are deified by the MSM and fed on a silver platter to unsuspecting buyers of "all things Wall Street," especially the shares of companies that have no earnings and very few assets but a mountain of narrative content that tells a wonderful little "story" about what might happen if all goes right. Visions of net worth sugar plums dance in millions of heads around the planet every time they hear the cheerleaders on CNBC prattle on about the "strong economy" being driven forward by a "resilient consumer" who have oodles and oodles of "cash on the sidelines" with which to drive stock prices endlessly higher.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2024
Stock Market QE4EVER / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 4%! Now it's more like 7%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!
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Monday, February 05, 2024
Banking Crisis Quietly Brewing / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve’s most recent policy statement came with a curious omission. Fed officials removed language from previous statements that proclaimed “the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”
That begs the question: Is the banking system no longer sound and resilient?
The Fed initially inserted the language in March 2023 following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – whose balance sheet obviously wasn’t sound or resilient.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Stock Market Major Market lows by Calendar Month / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This table proved remarkably accurate on it's own for pointing towards swing lows in March and October of 2023. Whilst June had a much lower probability and thus did not factor into my forecast expectations, despite at the time everyone wanting the market to make a low contrary to the road map which forecast a continuing uptrend into July.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
More Problems in US Regional Banking System: Where There's Fire There's Smoke / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Where there’s fire, there’s smoke.
And there is definitely smoke in the U.S. banking system.
The mainstream consensus is that the Federal Reserve successfully raised interest rates, slayed the inflation monster, and did it without breaking anything in the economy. Most people seem convinced the central bank will continue guiding the economy to a soft landing, and soon, it can go back to delivering the easy money the economy depends on.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
New Hints of US Election Year Market Interventions & Turmoil / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: MoneyMetals
After a sluggish January for precious metals, gold and silver markets saw a rally during the first day of February trading, only to see it reverse here today on the 2nd day of the month, after a strong U.S. jobs report, to continue the lackluster performance we’ve seen in early 2024.
On Thursday, gold gained $15 to settle at $2,064 per ounce. As of this Friday recording, the monetary metal has given back all of Thursday’s gain and then some and currently checks in at $2,045 but is still up a slight 0.8% for the week.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The name of the game is to -
a. STAY INVESTED
b. Capitalise on discounting events.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Blue Skies Ahead As Stock Market Is Expected To Continue Much Higher / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Avi_Gilburt
The difference between the perception of the stock market during October 2023, and today, is amazingly stark. At the time, almost everyone believed we were likely heading towards recession, and that the stock market was on its way down in a big way. Fast-forward to today, and GDP is stronger than most believed, consumer spending has been strong, the Fed is considering lowering rates, employment remains strong, and there seems to be further good news across many different sectors (along with the booming expectations based upon AI), with a number of major stocks hitting new all-time highs along with the overall stock markets.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
What the Stock Market "Fear Index" VIX May Be Signaling / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: EWI
"Note the succession of higher closing low relative to higher highs in..."
First, just a quick basic fact about the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -- also known as the stock market's "fear gauge": the lower the reading, the higher the complacency among investors. Higher readings indicate increased investor nervousness.
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Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Stock Market Trend Forecast Review / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Stock Market trend forecast mission accomplished, a rally to 4600 July 2023 to resolve in a correction to 4100 by late October 2023 followed by a rally into the end of the year.
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Wednesday, January 24, 2024
S&P Stock Market Detailed Trend Forecast 2024 - P1 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The S&P ends 2023 at 4770, a raging bull market that has been missed by most as 2023 proved to be another year where the consensus got it badly wrong, doom and gloom, a recession was seen as being a done deal as it was for 2022, then there was the debt ceiling nothing burger, QT! What QT? We had stealth QE via the reverse repo market, and the banking crisis nothing burger, plenty of reasons why NOT to invest all the way down from the likes of Stanley Druckenmiller through to the perma fools on the CNBC cartoon network, blogosFear all convinced most to park their funds into T-bills and money market accounts.
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Sunday, January 21, 2024
S&P 500: What to Make of Fear Versus Greed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
This sentiment index combines seven indicators into one useful trend measure
That is -- market participants generally go from feeling deeply pessimistic all the way to feeling highly optimistic -- and then back again.
These swings in investor psychology tend to produce similar circumstances at corresponding points in the Elliott wave structure of the main stock market indexes.
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Friday, January 19, 2024
Stock Market 2024 Rally to the MOON! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Understand this if you invested in the stock market to any significant degree during 2023 then you went AGAINST the herd because the herd (Institutions and retail investors) plowed most of their money into money market accounts having been talked into by the likes of the clowns on the CNBC cartoon network, MSM and the blogosfear. In fact it is even worse than that as Equity Funds experienced a net outflow of about $250 billion during 2023. so not only did investors not invest, they actually sold stocks. So what is going to happen when they see rates on their money market accounts drop? They are going to BUY STOCKS! Which will be NEAR ONE AND HALF YEARS LATE TO THE PARTY!
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Bank Borrowing From Fed Bailout Program Has Surged / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Is a U.S. banking crisis still bubbling under the surface?If activity in the Federal Reserve’s bank bailout program is any indication, the answer to that question is yes.
Over the last two months, the balance in the Fed Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has surged, and the pace of borrowing appears to be increasing.
Since Nov. 19, the amount of outstanding loans in the BTFP has increased by $27.3 billion. The balance in the bailout program grew by nearly $5.4 billion in just the last week.
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Sunday, January 07, 2024
Financial Markets 2024 Outlook / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2024
By: Michael_Pento
This year promises to be one of the most interesting years economically, politically, and market-wise in history. We have two significant global conflicts/wars ongoing, just as President Xi of China is reiterating his promise to annex Taiwan, and Kim Jong Un of North Korea threatens to wipe the US off the map. Meanwhile, we have the most likely Republican candidate getting thrown off state ballots under the disgusting guise of trying to preserve democracy. The US is sadly in the process of becoming a banana republic. Wars and revolutions are not a tail risk. They are happening now and are likely to metastasize in 2024.
With this backdrop, we have the most expensive stock market in history prior to 2020. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.62, and the total market cap of equities is 176% of GDP; both figures are near record highs and dwarf the historical averages prior to the pandemic. And the equity risk premium is zero. Meaning the earnings yield of stocks is less than that yield offered by simply owning a risk-free T-bill. In other words, investors are not getting compensated at all for the extra risk of owning stocks over bonds.