Stock Market QE4EVER

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 Feb 07, 2024 - 07:37 PM GMT

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 4%! Now it's more like 7%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!

As I wrote 15 ,months ago - "The bottom line is tapering is a temporary smoke and mirrors exercise that ultimately will resolve in a DOUBLING of the Fed balance sheet, that's right in the not too distant future I will be posting a chart of the Fed Balance sheet north of $16 trillion! CRACKUP BOOM HERE WE COME!"

Quantitative Tightening WAS a smoke and mirrors con trick that the lemmings swallowed, there has been NO QT! The $ 1.2 trillion of QT, that the fools in the MSM have focused upon was more then OFSET via a myriad of mechanisms foremost of which is the Reverse Repo Market that the Fed engineered to balloon to $2.6 trillion through interest rates manipulation that during 2023 drained by $1.7 trillion to finance US treasury bond purchases and so abracadabra QT of $1.2 trillion actually turned out to be net QE of at least $500 billion!

What does this mean for the stock and bond markets?

It means there is another $800 million of buying to come to US bonds which will continue to put upwards pressure on bond and stock prices well into 2024, probably into April 2024, and unless by that time there is fresh QE,the bond and stock markets could be primed for a fairly deep correction, which chimes with my existing view for a rally into April 2024. So we could see a case of Sell in April and Go Away rather than Sell in May.

So the reverse repo chart is definitely one to keep an eye on during the year.

This article is an excerpt from my in-depth analysis and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 has first been made available to patrons who support my So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Analysis that seeks to replicate the accuracy of 2023:

S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024

CONTENTS
Investing in the Stock Market is Like Boxing With Mike Tyson
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks
Synthetic Intelligence
The Roaring AI 2020's
Stock Market 2023 Trend Forecast Review
STOCK MARKET DISCOUNTING EVENTS BIG PICTURE
Major Market lows by Calendar Month
US Exponential Budget Deficit
QE4EVER
US Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
INFLATION and the Stock Market Trend
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic
S&P Real Earnings Yield
S&P EGF EPS Growth
When WIll the Fed Pivot
Stocks and Inverted Yield Curve
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates
US Dollar Trend 2024
US Recession Already Happened in 2022!
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions
Margin Debt
Stock Market Breadth
Stock Market Investor Sentiment
Bitcoin S&P Pattern
SP Long-term Trend Analysis
Dow Annual Percent Change
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)
S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Correlating Seasonal Swings
Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal
Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
S&P Stock Market Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
Quantum AI Tech Stocks Portfolio
Primary AI Stocks
AI - Secondary Stocks
TESLA

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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