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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Unemployment Rate Reaches Record Low, Positive for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Donald_W_Dony

The U.S. Unemployment rate has just reached a level not seen in over forty years.

In early November, the seasonally adjusted claims was 239,000. The 4-week moving average sat at 231,250 which is the lowest level since March 31, 1973 when it was 227,750.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 10, 2017

Can Stocks and Bonds go Down at the Same Time? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

TNX gapped up this morning in a possible Wave [iii] of 3 of (5). I spent a considerable amount of time evaluating the Waves and Cycles to arrive at this construction of the Wave pattern. The fact that the Wave had become very oversold alerted me to the possibility of stocks and bonds both in decline. An index may often rally an average of 3 weeks after a Master Cycle low.

The view that bonds go higher as stocks go down is only a recent phenomenon. What if both go down in a liquidity crisis? For example, Japan or China may sell their treasuries to forestall their stock market declines.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 10, 2017

STOCKS HIT AN AIR POCKET……AGAIN! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Enda_Glynn

Stocks got their fist little taste of pain yesterday as we close out this half cycle.
Full cycle losses in the coming bearmarket will extend to at least 60% in my estimation.
But it remains to be seen if this new decline is the beginning of something greater.

The DOW was down more than 250 points today in a possible series of 1,2 waves.
It is too early to say just yet,
But If I were a bull,
I might ask this question:
why do stocks nose dive, when everything is supposedly so great?
It has got to be a head sctratcher!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 10, 2017

Stock Market Indexes Are in a Retracement Mode After Giving Their Signals / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The formation we see here is most likely a Leading Diagonal Wave (i). At the 2-hour scale we see a complete trip from top to bottom of the Cycle. A normal retracement would take Wave (ii) to the mid-Cycle resistance at 2584.39, which is a 58% retracement. The Fibonacci 61.8%, retracement is above the mid-Cycle resistance at 2585.29. It may not make it.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Stock Market Decline May have Begun / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The VIX has given its buy signal at the 50-day Moving Average and appears capable of rising above its compressed Cycle Top, as well. Note the redrawn Elliott Wave structure which finally became clear at Friday’s Wave (2) low. No rules were violated in this pattern, just stretched to the limit. The EW structure now says we are in Wave 1 of (3), which should be a magnitude larger than Wave (1). Wave 1 should rise to the trendline at 16.66 or possibly to 17.28, which is the high in the Daily chart. The Head & Shoulders pattern which gives the Wave 3 target is still valid. It is possible that Wave 5 of (3) may rise to the mid-30’s.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Stock Market Topping Action Or Just a Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Wednesday's intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved partly wrong because the S&P 500 index gained 0.15% (neutral), following slightly lower opening of the trading session. We still can see some technical overbought conditions along with negative divergences. Therefore, intraday short position is favored again. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,605 and potential profit target is at 2,555 (S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Stock Market Dow Theory Divergence Returns Caution Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Christopher_Quigley

The bull price action momentum that returned to the Dow Transports September 11th last has now vanished, and is beginning to indicate renewed market weakness.

The Dow Industrials, the S & P 500 and the NASDAQ are displaying no such tendency. On the contrary, they show all the signs of a parabolic “blow-off”, which is the classic signature of a bull market termination.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

Markets are Warning, But No Major Sell Signal / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are challenging the upper trendline of the Broadening Wedge formation. Should it break through, the next level of support appears to be the lower Diagonal trendline at 2570.00. These supports are what makes the decline appears controlled and manageable. However, once beneath them, the decline becomes stronger as the SPX hones in on the next target indicated by the formations. For example, the Ending Diagonal formation, once triggered, is often completely retraced, with a target near 2400.00.

The smaller Broadening formation was relabeled as an Orthodox Broadening Top due to the near-horizontal lower trendline. If so, the first decline may stop at the Cycle Bottom support at 2499.76. We should remain flexible to allow for the possible conflicts between formations. It will become clear in the end.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

The Next Financial Crisis Will Reveal How Little Liquidity There Is / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

This is something I’ve been pondering for some time. I think the next crisis will reveal how little liquidity there is in the credit markets, especially in the high-yield, lower-rated space.

Dodd–Frank has greatly limited the ability of banks to provide market-making opportunities and credit markets, a function that has been in their wheelhouse for well over a century.

However, when the prices of massive amounts of high-yield bonds that have been stuffed into mutual funds and ETFs begin to fall, and the ETFs want to sell the underlying assets to generate liquidity, there will be no buyers except at extreme prices.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 06, 2017

The Stock Market- From Here to Infinity? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Plunger

Rambus has shown that the move upward in the stock market continues to be unimpeded. I would concur with the caveat that early next year it may peak and end the 9 year bull market, so far the second longest in history.  Momentum is still powering higher, however internal deterioration has begun to be evident.  Here is one possible scenario for the ultimate top:

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 06, 2017

Stock Market Topping Pattern Or Just Pause Before Another Leg Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly:
Intraday trade: Our Friday's intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved wrong because the S&P 500 index gained 0.3% following slightly higher opening of the trading session. We still can see some short-term overbought conditions. Therefore, intraday short position is favored. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,605 and potential profit target is at 2,555 (S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 06, 2017

Nothing Can Bring Down This Stock Market Except . . . / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Avi_Gilburt

This past week, we experienced yet another horrendous terrorist attack in New York City. And, amazingly, just like what occurred after several other terrorist attacks that have been experienced over the last year, the market rallied right after the attack.

It has almost gotten to the point that people now expect the stock market to rally after a terrorist attack. Have we really become this warped in our thinking? Must we hold fast to ridiculous notions that news is what drives the stock market to the point that we have to resign ourselves to believing that the market will rally “because” of a terrorist attack? Do you not see how ridiculous these perspectives really are?

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 06, 2017

Stock Market Still Bullish, (Near-Term)! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current position of the market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with no sign of a major top in sight.
 
 Intermediate trend –  Soon coming to an end.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 04, 2017

Markets At the Junction of Risk ‘On’ and Risk ‘Off’ / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Gary_Tanashian

[edit] As I do the actual work of plowing through NFTRH 472 I am noting some non-bond related indicators in line with the fading Junk/Quality ratios and easing Treasury yields noted in this post. If preliminary hints in these indicators intensify and long-term yield breakouts fail, we may get a market reaction of some kind and lurch to risk ‘off’ sooner rather than later. Most market charts remain straight up bullish. But charts are charts and indicators are a whole other animal.

This post serves as a public version (i.e. more wordiness than is usual in an NFTRH report) of NFTRH 472’s Bonds & Related Indicators segment. If you’re not following bonds closely, you’re not really following stock and asset markets. You’re throwing darts.

At the junction of the inflated risk ‘on’ trade (stocks, global growth assets, etc.) and risk ‘off’ (gold, Treasury bonds, cash & equivalents, etc.) are the pivotal indicators to these conditions, Treasury bond yields, yield dynamics and bond market signals.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 03, 2017

SPX Trying to Digest a Whopper of a Monthly Labor Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX futures are flat, trying to digest a big letdown in the BLS October Employment Situation Report. To make matters worse, 216,000 of the 261,000 reported new jobs are from a hypothetical model called the CES Birth/Death Model.

ZeroHedge reports, “Well, with virtually everyone expecting a 300K+ payrolls number after last month's negative hurricane-distorted print, and with whispers of a 400K print floating around, it only made sense that not only would payrolls disappoint, printing at 261K, one standard deviation below the 310K consensus estimate (and that even with a whopping 89,000 waiters and bartenders added)”

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 03, 2017

Someone doesn't want the Stock Market to decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The VIX got walloped just after challenging the 50-day Moving Average this morning. It appears that someone didn’t want to see the equities markets go down after the tax plan was announced. Thus far the lows are higher, so there is no apparent threat to the VIX. However, it may mean that the “big one” may come overnight so they can blame it on other news.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 02, 2017

Timing the Peak in Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

Is Stock Market Valuation in Bubble Territory?

Many analysts and forecasters argue that stock market is in bubble territory and about to do significant correction or even a crash. There’s a lot of reasons given, both from fundamental and technical point of view. For example, some popular reasons are:

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 01, 2017

Is a Year End Rally in Risk Markets Coming ? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Submissions

The Bank of Japan left its massive monetary stimulus program unchanged even as it trimmed its inflation forecasts, signaling further divergence ahead from its global peers.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

The Bubble Economy Is Set To Burst / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: John_Mauldin

My friend Andy Xie, based in Shanghai, is a very independent-minded investment analyst and economist. With a PhD from MIT, he has been at the IMF and was a star economist for the Morgan Stanley Asia-Pacific group.

His often bearish calls on various parts of the Chinese economy have elicited a lot of criticism from Chinese officials and retail investors. I have been on the stage with him several times, both on the same side of debates and on opposite sides—he is a formidable opponent!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Is Trump’s Tax Reform Bullish for Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

EWFHendra : The tax reform is perhaps the single most important agenda for Republicans. The consequence for falling short of the tax overhaul is dire. Should Republicans fail to deliver the tax reform, they could face rout in the mid-term elections next year. This means losing control of the Senate and possibly also the House of Representatives where they have a majority now. Recently, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has suggested that stock market could give back much of the gain if tax reform fails. Mnuchin said during a recent interview with Politico: “There is no question that the rally in the stock market has baked into it reasonably high expectations of us getting tax cuts and tax reform done”. Given the high stake, the market seems to believe that some version of tax reform is likely to come out of Washington.

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