Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, February 12, 2011
Mubarak Resigns, Bonds Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Increases to Eight-Month High
(Bloomberg) Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in February to the highest level in eight months, a sign falling unemployment and rising stock prices may be comforting households.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for the month climbed to 75.1 from 74.2 in January. Economists projected the gauge would rise to 75, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Bernanke Bubblenomics Succeeds in Inflating Another Bubble, Get Those Wheelbarrows Ready / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
The game is on. Two years of zero rates, limitless guarantees, and a $2 trillion drip-feed from the Fed, has lifted Wall Street from the canvas and put the speculators back in the thick-of-things. It's a miracle. Who would have thought that Bernanke could engineer another bubble this fast. But he has. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are increasing, LBO's (Leveraged buyouts) are on the rise, revolving credit ("plastic") is expanding, and investors are scarfing up low-yield junk bonds wherever they can find them.
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Saturday, February 12, 2011
Egypt Resolves... Stock Market Resilient... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Democracy. The people of Egypt were fighting to remove autocratic leadership and create democracy for themselves. The market had been somewhat shaken recently over rioting in the streets. It was a reminder of the recent past riots when we also had to deal with the flash crash. The market didn't like all that rioting in the streets not too long ago, and was clearly worried a bit that this could happen again. It should not happen as President Mubarak has stepped down.
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Saturday, February 12, 2011
A Regime Changer / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
Yes, we all know what has been happening in Egypt over the past couple of weeks. Well, maybe most Americans don’t. The TV show ‘American Idol’ is back in season and some nitwit on some other reality show is thinking about changing her eye shadow or something. But for the rest of the world, we are witness to a profound change in the politics of Egypt and that change was brought about by determined and massive citizen dissent.
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Friday, February 11, 2011
The Stop-Start Auto Boom is Here / Stock-Markets / US Auto's
A new boom has been born. It has everything we look for in an emerging trend.Its benefits significantly outweigh its costs to users.
It’s already proven. It works and the technology has already established a beachhead in some rapidly recovering market.
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Friday, February 11, 2011
U.S. Stock Market’s Remarkable Resilience! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The U.S. stock market’s continuing strength in the face of so many global problems is truly remarkable - and has been correct so far.
Meanwhile, the stock markets of three of the seven largest economies of the world rolled over to the downside last November. The markets of China, India, and Brazil are down an average of 15% since their peaks in November, and are mostly making new lows almost daily. They are three of the four so-called ‘BRIC’ countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) that were leading the way in the new bull market that began off the March, 2009 low. Even the Russian market has declined 5% over the last week.
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Friday, February 11, 2011
Want to Bet Against Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Permanent Open Market Operations are purchases of treasuries and other securities by the Fed to inject money into the system. It is the policy of Quantitative Easing broken down into a schedule of action. Chris Ciovacco's diagram here shows how this policy results in pushing asset prices higher around the globe:Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 11, 2011
European Stocks Under Pressure / Stock-Markets / European Stock Markets
The Technical Trader’s view:
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Thursday, February 10, 2011
Investors Finally Fear the Inflation Precipice / Stock-Markets / Inflation
Well it's about time. The headline on Monday's CNBC article announces: "Investors Starting to Believe That Inflation Threat is Real."
For some time, I have been a proud member of the fuddy duddies who have been predicting the return of serious stagflation. Thus far, our prognostications have clearly been half-right — the "real economy" is indeed caught in a terrible rut, far worse than most of the Keynesian economists recognized even in late 2008.
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Thursday, February 10, 2011
Stock Market Hedging Strategies: Tight Trailing Stops and Inverse Funds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has soared 26% since early July and some 84.59% from its March 2009 bear-market lows. And that has Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald more than a little concerned.
Does that mean it's time to cash out?
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Thursday, February 10, 2011
Stock Market Minor Pullback On The SPX/NDX Off 70 RSI's On Daily Charts... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
You wouldn't call this a strong, or a major, pullback, I'm sure, but it was a pullback to some degree, nevertheless, especially on the Nasdaq and today's lows. RSI readings on the S&P 500, Dow, and Wilshire all hit 70 Tuesday, and thus, it should come as no shock that the market made an attempt to sell off some today. In the end, however, it didn't do a whole lot of selling successfully as the buy-the-dip bull crowd came in again today when things started to really move down. The interesting thing about 70 RSI readings in this bull market is that it has rarely stopped individual stocks from moving higher if they're in the right type of bullish pattern. The RSI readings often get well in to the 70's if not the lower 80's. This is not normal behavior, and shouldn't be looked upon as such, since normally, 70 will stop stocks dead in their tracks.
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Thursday, February 10, 2011
Financial Crisis, How Soon the World Forgets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
It is the week of February 07, 2011 and the Dow rests above 12,000 for the first time in three years. The markets have rebounded impressively since March of 2009, when the financial markets struck their lowest lows before a quick surge and near double to today.It is extremely interesting to watch the return to the financial markets and watch as each investment, regardless of its type, surge in price as money flows back into every financial vehicle on the market. AOL just purchased the Huffington Post for several multiples over its revenue in another large scale purchase of online media. The deal, done in all cash, only goes to show how cheap cash actually is. When was the last time any company, especially AOL, pumped out cash in return for 100% ownership?
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Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Under the Big Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
1,332. That is a 100% in the S&P since it's March 2009 low of 666 (see David Fry's chart). Does it matter? Can we expect even a LITTLE pullback after a 100% run or is it "to the moon Alice" and maybe Mars and Jupiter while we're at it as the Federal Reserve's multi-Trillion Dollar thrusters send us to the stars, breaking the bonds of gravity (and logic) as they send stocks every higher in an expanding universe of freshly supplied money. As fellow stock market physicist, Art Cashin said yesterday:
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Wednesday, February 09, 2011
S&P Stock Index Key Points to Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Very sloppy action in the emini S&P 500 (e-SPH) and in the cash S&P 500 (SPX), which is a bit unnerving for me considering my cycle work (posted on Monday evening) as well as my Bollinger Band work BOTH suggest that the indices could be vulnerable to a shakeout on the long side within the current timeframe. A sustained breach of 1313.00 in the e-SPH should coincide with an upside penetration of the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) at 21.60.
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Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Forget Commodities... This Is the Next Big Trend in China / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
In 2006, the Chinese government created a master plan for its economy.
It would invest billions of dollars in construction. New skyscrapers would be built. Schools and apartments would follow. The country's transportation network would also get a massive upgrade...
Wednesday, February 09, 2011
Why Another Financial Crash is Certain / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
On August 9, 2007, an incident took place at a bank in France that touched-off a financial crisis that that would eventually wipe out more than $30 trillion in capital and thrust the world into the deepest slump since the Great Depression. The event was recounted in a speech by Pimco's managing director Paul McCulley, at the 19th Annual Hyman Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies. Here's an excerpt from McCulley's speech:
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Tuesday, February 08, 2011
China World Wide Investing Ushering in the Next Asset Model / Stock-Markets / Investing 2011
This is not a typical day trading article but rather medium term fundamental patterns which ultimately define every move including bond markets and currency markets.
The Heritage Foundation’s China Global Investment Tracker documents large Chinese investment overseas outside of bonds. The volume of this investment has exceeded $200 billion in the past five years. The tracker also contains information on nearly $100 billion in large construction contracts since 2005. These numbers will only rise as China seeks to find outlets for closing on $3 trillion in official foreign exchange reserves.
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Tuesday, February 08, 2011
What Happens in a Sideways Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Today's OTB features an excerpt from my friend Vitaliy Katsenelson's recently published The Little Book of Sideways Markets. Vitaliy is CIO at Investment Management Associates, a value investment firm in Denver, and he is a prolific and engaging writer (you can find and subscribe to his articles at http://ContrarianEdge.com). I had the pleasure of writing the foreword to Vitaliy's book, and here is a brief excerpt:
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Tuesday, February 08, 2011
Stock Market Trending Higher Still.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
The questions are asked daily. How soon will the correction begin? Shouldn't I be selling my longs and going short and short aggressively? I can't blame people for wondering about those issues. It makes sense emotionally. The problem is, it hasn't made sense in the real world. Bull markets can be very stressful on bulls and bears alike. The bulls get stressed out the higher they go. The bears get stressed out wondering just how much pain they can endure and when will those losses finally end. Nothing worse than being short and watching the market blast higher.
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Monday, February 07, 2011
Stock and Commodity Markets Heading for Summer Break / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
It has been my contention all along that the Fed would print until something breaks. Once that break occurs we will enter the next leg down in the secular bear market. This time I don't expect it to be the credit markets, although we will almost certainly have trouble in the municipal and state bond markets. Some may even default.
I actually think the greater risk is from massive layoffs by state and local governments in an effort to cut expenses and avoid default. When that begins we will see unemployment levels start to spike again.