Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Retail Stock Market Traders & Investors Squeezed to Buy High-Risk Assets Again / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Yes, we certainly live in interesting times. This, the last segment of our multi-part article on the current Q2 and Q3 2020 US and global economic expectations, as well as current data points, referencing very real ongoing concerns, we urge you to continue using common sense to help protect your assets and families from what we believe will be a very volatile end to 2020. If you missed the first two segments of this research article, please take a moment to review them before continuing.
On May 24th, 2020, we published this research article related to our super-cycle research. It is critical that you understand what is really happening in the world as we move through these major 21 to 85+ year super-cycles and apply that knowledge to the data we have presented in the first two segments of this research post. Within that article, we quoted Ray Dalio from a recent article published related to his cycle research.
Read full article... Read full article...“In brief, after the creation of a new set of rules establishes the new world order, there is typically a peaceful and prosperous period. As people get used to this they increasingly bet on the prosperity continuing, and they increasingly borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a bubble. As prosperity increases the wealth gap grows. Eventually, the debt bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money and credit and increased internal conflict, which leads to some sort of wealth redistribution revolution that can be peaceful or violent. Typically at that time late in the cycle, the leading empire that won the last economic and geopolitical war is less powerful relative to rival powers that prospered during the prosperous period, and with the bad economic conditions and the disagreements between powers, there is typically some kind of war. Out of this debt, economic, domestic, and world-order breakdowns that take the forms of revolutions and wars come new winners and losers. Then the winners get together to create the new domestic and world orders.”
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
SPX about to Challenge 8/08 High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Still in an uptrend since March
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, July 13, 2020
Stock Market Dow 30k before End of 2020? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Looking at the way the Dow has behaved to date in the wake of the the Great Corona Crash of 2020.
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Monday, July 13, 2020
Credit Market Investments Turned Into End-User Risk Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing our research from Part I, into what to expect in Q2 and Q3 of 2020, we’ll start by discussing our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system and our belief that the US stock market is rallied beyond proper expectation levels. The Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) modeling systems attempts to identify price and technical indicator DNA markers and attempts to map our these unique price setups. Then, it attempts to learn from the past DNA markers and apply that learned price behavior to future price DNA markers. In this manner, it learns from the past and applies that knowledge to the future.
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Sunday, July 12, 2020
Stop Believing The 'Economy' Is The Same As The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
There are so many fallacies perpetuated and regurgitated throughout the market, yet there is so little time to appropriately address them all.
Of late, almost all the “analysis” or comments you read or hear is based upon a superficial understanding of the market propagated through “common-speak.” And, that is exactly why they all seem to be so confused:
“The stock market is confusing a lot of people right now. It seems simple: news is bad, there's a pandemic for the first time in generations, people are dying, and the economy has taken a beating for the ages. Stocks should go down, right? But they're not. They've recovered so much of their March slide that they've produced the shortest bear market in history. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was in a bear market for just three days.”
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Saturday, July 11, 2020
The Big Short 2020 – World Pushes Credit/Investments Into Risk Again / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
One thing is very certain right now – we live in very interesting times. As the world rushes head-first into the 21st Century, it appears one of the most pressing issues before all of us is to navigate the risks and opportunities that continue to stack up ahead of us. Within the first 20 years of this century, the global markets have experienced many shifts and big price rotations. Emerging markets, Oil, Technology, Bio-Tech, Miners, Metals, Currencies, Cryptos – we can look at all of these on a longer-term basis and see a boom cycle and a moderate bust cycle event.
The current trends suggest global investors are pouring capital into the US technology stocks which is what is driving the NASDAQ to new all-time highs. We published this article in late June suggesting a parabolic top pattern may be setting up in the global markets – which may be very similar to the DOT COM peak in 1999~2000 explained here.
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Friday, July 10, 2020
Stock Market: "Relevant Waves Vs. Irrelevant News" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Let's (again) delve into the connection between the stock market and newsThe stock market is a fractal -- i.e., a self-repeating form at all degrees of trend. Meaning, without the time or price labels, you can't tell if you're looking at a 2-minute chart or at a monthly one.
What's more, stock market trends unfold in repetitive and recognizable price patterns.
What's more, these patterns -- Elliott wave pattens -- emerge regardless of the news.
Tuesday, July 07, 2020
A Reason to be "Extra-Attentive" to Stock Market Sentiment Measures / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
Extreme investor sentiment, whether bullish or bearish, is often a sign that a financial market is on the cusp of a turn.
Here's the reason: When almost everyone is bullish (or bearish), there's almost no one left to push the market higher (or lower).
Having said that, an extreme market sentiment can become even more extreme before a trend change occurs. So, an investor should not rely solely on sentiment measures when making portfolio decisions. In other words, sentiment measures should be put into context with technical indicators, the Elliott wave model and other factors which an Elliott wave expert may consider important.
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Tuesday, July 07, 2020
Stock Market Bears Lose Epic Battle / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session played out as an upside trend day where every dip was bought as price action formed higher lows and higher highs. The context is quite clear as both bulls and bears were duking it out for the monthly and quarterly closing print. When one side loses a critical battle and keeps losing on numerous key setups, then it is what it is.
The new main takeaway from the past couple days is that the bears lost an epic battle and now the overall pattern is becoming fairly bullish given the high-level consolidation/channel on the daily and weekly charts. If you recall, the more time that the price action consolidates near the highs, the higher odds it gives the the ongoing bulls because the gummy bears were not able to entice the real, big, bad bears to rotate come into town. If price action keeps sustaining above 3030 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES) in the coming days, then market participants will have to be looking for an eventual breakout to the upside.
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Monday, July 06, 2020
Stock Market Short-term Peaking / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Down into mid-July
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Friday, July 03, 2020
Stock Market Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent Gaps in price action in the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) presents a clear picture of future price targets and support/resistances. Gaps are one of the most common forms of Technical Analysis techniques. They represent “voids” where price activity has skipped a range of price as it advances or declines aggressively.
Gaps are commonly used as targets for future price activity – where price attempts to “fill the gap”. In Technical Analysis theory, any gap that appears should eventually be “filled” by price in the future. Thus, any open gap that does not fill is still considered an “open target range”.
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Thursday, July 02, 2020
All Eyes on Markets to Get a Refreshed Outlook. / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Submissions
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Thursday, July 02, 2020
The Darkening Clouds on the Stock Market S&P 500 Horizon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's overnight gains evaporated faster than you could say Jack Robinson, and not much bottom fishing came later that day. Is the tide in stocks turning – or has it turned already? With Thursday's financial news-driven gains reversed in a flash, it's tempting to say so – especially when coupled with the other signs I see in the charts.
In short, more downside appears likely, confirming what I said in Friday's analysis. A quick quote: "Despite the generally positive S&P 500 performance during the runups to Independence Day, the new Fed rules might not have saved the day yet. Trading remains choppy, corona cases just made a new U.S. daily high, and the elections are getting closer."
Will the market agree?
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Wednesday, July 01, 2020
US Stock Markets Enter Parabolic Price Move / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the first part of this research article, we briefly discussed the recent price and global economic events related to the 2018 to 2020 US stock market volatility and the COVID-19 virus event. The premise of this research post was to highlight the current upside parabolic price trend that initiated shortly after the 2015~16 US election cycle event. It is almost impossible to look at the NAS100 chart, below, and not see the dramatic upside price advance that took place after the November 2016 US elections.
It is almost as if the US stock markets had been primed by Federal Reserve intervention over the previous 5+ years and someone let the monster out of the cage. The deregulation, changes to tax structures and general perception of market opportunity changed almost immediately after the November 2016 elections and really never looked back.
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Tuesday, June 30, 2020
More Stock Market Selling Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Having rallied well past a .618 retracement of the decline into March 2020, it is time to consider the possibility that the retracement was only an interruption of the bull market which originated in 2009.
Intermediate trend – Down into mid-July
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, June 29, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching the Precipice / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks made quite a move out of the 5-day long congestion yesterday – is the downside move drawing to a close? I don't think so yet, and today's analysis will discuss quite a few reasons why. As for the battle of narratives, the corona fears are gaining the upper hand over the recovery focus currently, which highlights the S&P 500 downside potential in the short-term. Will stocks follow through on the many cues?
And how will the market take to the incoming unemployment claims? I think they would not bring about a bullish surprise, and will likely prove to be a catalyst of selling pressure during the regular U.S. market hours.
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Monday, June 29, 2020
US Stock Market Enters Parabolic Price Move – Be Prepared / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After the recent COVID-19 virus event and the global market concerns that will warrant caution for skilled traders and investors, the US stock markets have entered an upside parabolic trend that will likely end with a massive price collapse – extremely volatile and aggressive in nature. Our research team continues to warn of the unpredictable nature of the current price rally and the fact that the upside parabolic price trend appears more prominent in the NASDAQ sector. If history has taught us anything, it is that these types of parabolic moves can last a while and that they always end in a deep downside price correction – usually 61% to 75% of the last upside price trend.
Our research and trading team has been advising friends and followers to stay very cautious of the current markets (excluding Gold, Miners, and certain other protective sectors). We don’t believe this rally warrants any exposure greater than 15 to 20% given the current global economic environment and the hyper-parabolic nature of the current price move. We believe the opportunity presented by the upside advances does not negate the potential risks of a massive collapse event taking place in the near future. In other words, we’re more cautious of how ugly and aggressive the end of this parabolic move will be than willing to try to find some opportunities in an already hyper-extended parabolic upside price trend.
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Sunday, June 28, 2020
Stock Market Gummy Bears Must Act Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Tuesday’s session was more of the same action as the market remains stuck within our immediate range levels. If you recall, the bulls tried to break above last week’s 3150s range high on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), but price did not have the strength to conquer it. Instead, the ES micro-double topped in the mid-3140s and spent the rest of the day grinding back towards the 3110 gap fill/prior day’s closing print.
The main takeaway remains the same as the price action remains stuck in an overall daily pattern of 3231.25-2923.75 where a temporary top and temporary bottom were confirmed a few sessions ago. The ongoing battle remains tough for both sides because the longer this thing consolidates in a high-level consolidation; the better the outcome for the ongoing bulls. This is why it’s critical for gummy bears to act now and entice the real, big, bad bears to rotate back into town.
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Sunday, June 28, 2020
Stock Market S&P 500 Approaching a Defining Moment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended Monday's gains, yet retreated from the daily highs – how bullish is that? The short-term outlook hasn't changed as the S&P 500 still trades within Tuesday's intraday confines – we lack a clear short-term direction. In today's analysis, I'll cover what has changed and what has not since we last spoke. I'll also discuss the overnight dip on renewed corona fears – as if this news piece just arrived out of the left field. Yet, the market seems getting sensitive here.
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Wednesday, June 24, 2020
A Stealth Stocks Double Dip or Bear Market Has Started / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The stock has gone through many cycles since the 2000 tech bubble. The tech bubble was the last significant time the stock market’s popularity among individuals piqued their interest in such a huge way similar to what we see now in the markets.
Market legend Jeremy Grantham recently talked on CNBC about the price action in the markets is the “Real McCoy” of bubbles. We will get back to his insight later in this article, but let’s get into some technical analysis that helps us see when and where the market bubble could burst. When it does, it’s going to seriously hurt all the newly unemployed and sports betting traders who don’t know better yet how the markets move.
The stock market and how it moves is always evolving. Since 2008 when the FED stepped into the bailout America, which manipulated the financial system, the markets have been riddled with new policies by presidents and the Fed.
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