Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, April 02, 2020
Stock Market Selloff Structure Explained – Fibonacci On Deck / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Many traders become very emotional when the markets turn Bearish and fail to properly understand that price structure is still driving market price movement. This morning, I highlighted this structure to my subscribers attempting to alert them to the possibility that the markets could recover moderately over the next 3 to 5+ days attempting to set up the next “waterfall” downside price event.
On January 29, 2020, I posted a research article detailing my belief that a “waterfall” type of event was setting up in the markets. This article was nearly 30 days prior to the peak in the markets. It explained how events take place and how markets tend to develop a moderate recovery phase between selloff price declines.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
The Past Stock Market Week Was More Important Than You May Understand / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Avi_Gilburt
On Thursday, we saw the worst jobless claims number in history (and by far). Yet, the S&P500 futures rallied over 200 points from their overnight lows. So, are we to believe that the “cause” of that rally was the jobless claims?
I can assure you that if the market dropped 200 points there would be no question in your mind that the drop was certainly caused by the jobless claim’s announcement. In fact, there is not a single one of you reading this that would have even doubted that as a “fact.” If we are going to be honest here, it is likely that all of you probably had the expectation that the market going to be down big when those numbers were announced.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Three Charts Every Stock Market Trader and Investor Must See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Understanding the stock market and its potential through the use of technical analysis and historical price events has been proven repeatedly to outperform all forms of fundamental trading styles. The following is a story that walks you through my experience, the shift in my mindset and how I came to the conclusion that the three charts I share in this article are critical to your understanding of to make money in today’s market!
When I first learned to trade, I got all caught up with researching companies and finding the ones with the best earnings and future growth. I did that for several years after studying and following many “professional traders” who said it was the best way to trade and invest long term. We lost our shirts during the 2000 bear market by continuing to trade on fundamentals as stocks fell in value week after week. Even the companies that showed quarterly earnings growth fell in value – none of it seemed to make any sense to me, and it was very frustrating.
Losing money when buying the best companies made no logical sense, making me step back from the markets and ask myself, ‘what am I doing wrong here‘. People today are asking themselves the same question given today’s dizzying markets:
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Trend Forecast - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market was first made available to Patrons who support my work. And it was my intentions to post this extensive analysis in a series of videos. However that has not been possible therefore this video just contains my final stock market conclusion.
So if you want to read the full analysis behind the forecast that is to follow then do follow the link to the Patreon site. Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market - March and April 2020 Trend Forecast.
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Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market Into End April 2020 Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My full stock market analysis follows that was first made available to Patrons who support my work - Coronavirus Dow Stocks Bear Market - March and April 2020 Trend Forecast
Whilst my latest analysis in this series was posted yesterday (30th March) - US and UK Coronavirus Trend Trajectories vs Bear Market and AI Stocks Sector
Before you read this analysis, ask yourselves is it worth $3 for advance warning of one of the greatest AI stocks sector buying opportunities of our time? https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, March 30, 2020
Stock Market Next Cycle Low 7th April / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the MarketSPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate low mid-year.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
United States Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Trend Forecasts Into End April 2020 / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final part of my analysis that concludes in detailed trend forecasts for UK and US Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Sunday, March 29, 2020
Fed President Declare: “No End in Our Ability to Print Money…and Congress Has Told Us To.” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: MoneyMetals
The roller coaster ride in markets took a sharp turn higher this week after the Federal Reserve and Congress together pledged over 6 trillion dollars to rescue the financial system.
Perhaps this week was an inflection point for the mass fear and panic that has cleared out bullion dealers of coins and grocery stores out of toilet paper. Although the number of coronavirus cases hasn’t yet peaked, there are some signs that the hysteria surrounding the deadly outbreak has.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
One of the Biggest Stock Market Short Covering Rallies in History May Be Imminent / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund considers the opportunities posed by recent market and fiscal news.
In recent days the Fed has made it plain that it is prepared to buy anything and everything to prevent imminent total collapse, and you don't have to join many dots to see that this will extend to buying stocks. It's not that hard for them—all they have to do is enter a few keystrokes, add a few 0s and it's sorted—and as Gregory Mannarino repeatedly points out, the more debt they issue the more powerful they become.
Right now sentiment is "end of the world" negative, and any positive development will be enough to trigger a gargantuan, self-feeding, short-covering rally. Gold's huge recovery is a sign that this may be about to start.
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Saturday, March 28, 2020
The Fed, the Coronavirus and Investing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable speaks to Bob Moriarty of 321gold about his thoughts on the current financial markets and investment opportunities.
Maurice Jackson: Welcome to Proven and Probable. Today, we will discuss the Fed, the coronavirus and your investment portfolio.
Joining us for a conversation is Bob Moriarty, a world-renowned, best-selling author and founder of the websites 321Gold and 321Energy.com.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
DJIA Coronavirus Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Short-term Trend Analysis
The bubble that was the Dow's early year bull run has well and truly burst with the Dow literally crashing to a low of 24,700, and if it wasn't for the Coronavirus than the Dow would still have fallen to trade down to a low of about 27,500. Instead we have gone beyond that which technical analysis can determine, hence my continuing heavy focus on the Coronavirus trend which on the 27th of February concluded in expectations for the Dow to fairly quickly trade down to about 25,500 that it soon sliced through during it's multi day crash.
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Friday, March 27, 2020
US Stock Market Upswing Meets Employment Data / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The much-anticipated upswing continuation came yesterday, and the bulls certainly fought hard to keep up the upside momentum. To what degree have they been successful with most of the intraday gains evaporating before the closing bell?
The intraday volatility is high and offers many opportunities to profit on both long and short positions. And that’s certainly what we did earlier this week, cashing in a 168-point gain on Friday-opened short position, and two more profitably closed positions (both were long trades) yesterday for an 82- and 52-point profit respectively. In total, that’s 302-point gain this week so far!
But going into the employment data later today, how does the technical outlook look like right now?
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Friday, March 27, 2020
CoronaVirus Curve, Stock Market Crash, and Mortgage Massacre / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months of global market activity may play out. We’ve covered some of the data points we believe are important and we’ve touched on the collateral damage that may be unknown at this time. Today, we’ll try to put the bigger picture together for investors to help you understand what we believe may be the 12+ month outcome.
As the global central banks and US Fed attempt to come to the rescue, the reality is that monetary policy works better when consumers are able to actually go out and engage in spending and economic activity. If the Covid-19 virus event contracts global consumer activity, as it has recently, for an extended period of time (4 to 6+ months), then we have a real issue with how QE efforts and consumer activity translate into any real recovery attempt.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Coronavirus Lesson #1 for Investors: Beware Predictions of Stock Market Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Submissions
With hoops “out” and exponentials “in” (referring to March Madness, the 2020 pandemic definition), there’s a new, customary disclaimer on economics and financial sites. Mine says that I, too, knew nothing about infectious disease modeling only two months ago. But I’m catching up, just like everyone else. By now, I might have reached a “Dummies Guide” standard, and I’ll keep this article at about that level.
So with that preface out of the way, I’ll first offer a health warning of sorts about a type of COVID-19 chart that’s popular with market bulls. Here’s a version that appeared in the New York Times:
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Wednesday, March 25, 2020
CoronaVirus Stock Market Trend Implications / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Is the Stock Market discounting the Coronavirus yet?
Well what will be effect on the stock market when we see start to see the numbers of infected virtually doubling every couple of days over the coming week, especially as unlike China the US is not going to hide the numbers of infected.
The markets look at the numbers, they want to see the number of infected stabilising and then DECREASING on a daily basis, and NOT DOUBLING every couple of days!
Therefore this implies we are going to continue to experience a bearish trend trajectory for at least March and likely April, despite Fed panic actions, as it now looks like my estimate of 13,000 US infected by the end of March gave way too much credence to US healthcare and CDC competency, instead both have proven to be seriously lacking i.e. closer in performance to that of Iran than South Korea!
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Rick Rule: 'A Different Phrase for Stocks Bear Market Is Sale' / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: The_Gold_Report
Maurice Jackson: Today, we will find out if there is a crisis response for your investment portfolio. Joining us for a conversation is legendary investor Rick Rule of Sprott USA.
Rick Rule: Maurice, thank you so much for having me on. These are really interesting times, and it's fun to address your audience in times like these.
Maurice Jackson: Sir, it is an absolute privilege to have you on our program during these extreme global market conditions. Speculators want to find out what you're doing as a crisis response and what actions they may take on their portfolio under these current market conditions. From your perspective as one of the most highly regarded credit analysts in the world, was this financial collapse inevitable?
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Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Stock Market Minor Cycle Bounce / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.
SPX Intermediate trend: First phase of correction nearly over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Socialism at Its Finest after Fed’s Bazooka Fails / Stock-Markets / Pandemic
By: Ellen_Brown
In what is being called the worst financial crisis since 1929, the US stock market has lost a third of its value in the space of a month, wiping out all of its gains of the last three years. When the Federal Reserve tried to ride to the rescue, it only succeeded in making matters worse. The government then pulled out all the stops. To our staunchly capitalist leaders, socialism is suddenly looking good.
The financial crisis began in late February, when the World Health Organization announced that it was time to prepare for a global pandemic. The Russia-Saudi oil price war added fuel to the flames, causing all three Wall Street indices to fall more than 7 percent on March 9. It was called Black Monday, the worst drop since the Great Recession in 2008; but it would get worse.
On March 12, the Fed announced new capital injections totaling an unprecedented $1.5 trillion in the repo market, where banks now borrow to stay afloat. The market responded by driving stocks 8% lower.
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Monday, March 23, 2020
Dark Pools of Capital Profiting from Coronavirus Stock and Financial Markets CRASH! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis seeks to conclude in detailed trend forecasts for US and UK Coronavirus Infections and deaths into the end of April 2020. The importance of which being to act as indicators for the primary driver for stock market trend since Mid February. Where as was the case with my preceding forecasts into the end of March, deviations against the Coronavirus trend warned of worse prospects for stock prices as the UK and US FAILED to follow the South Korean model of containing the pandemic, instead either proved completely incompetent in doing nothing despite having had well over a months advance warning of what to expect. Or perhaps by design so as to allow the virus to infect the general population as it was deemed to be impossible to prevent in the long-run given the movement of people, goods and services and so a quick sharp deadly shock was deemed to be the most cost effective solution.
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Saturday, March 21, 2020
Coronavirus - Don’t Ask, Don’t Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: John_Mauldin
My friend Ben Hunt wrote two weeks ago that we were in a period of “don’t ask, don’t test.” He has been extremely critical, and rightly so, about the slow response in getting tests available.
When we actually start testing at scale, I suspect we will find a lot of people have the coronavirus. My extremely informed sources consider it quite reasonable to expect 100,000 people in the US will test positive in a relatively short time.
The mainstream media will breathlessly report each increase and their locations and what is happening at the local hospitals. How do you think people will respond as the number of cases approaches 100,000 with no sign of slowing?
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