Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Stock Market Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Monday, August 17, 2020
Stock Market Waiting For Acceleration Phase / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday played out as a gap-up and grind-up type of session, as the bull train remains in full control.
Wednesday closed at 3369 in the ES, near the highs of the session and also at a new closing print high for the week. The entire day’s range was 3382.5-3326.50, including overnight hours. Wednesday was also a full retracement of Tuesday's losses, indicating that the quick backtest into daily 8EMA was stick-saved by the ongoing bulls.
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Monday, August 17, 2020
Has the Stock Bulls' Strength Returned? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks have yet again approached the all-time highs, but on volume that wasn't this low in months – that's a red flag. The stimulus talks haven't really progressed, but markets there is no jittery sentiment as the put/call ratio stubbornly clinging to its lows show.
But let's look under the hood of the stock advance as that fittingly illustrates all the above.
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System Suggests Stock Market Peak May Be Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling system is suggesting a moderate price peak may be already setting up in the NASDAQ while the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Transportation Index continue to rally beyond the projected Fibonacci Price Expansion Levels. This indicates that capital may be shifting away from the already lofty Technology sector and into Basic Materials, Financials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, as well as other sectors.
This type of a structural market shift indicates a move away from speculation and towards Blue Chip returns. It suggests traders and investors are expecting the US consumer to come back strong (or at least hold up the market at least) over the next 6+ months.
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
Stock Market, Asset Price Crash Dead Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Kelsey_Williams
An All-Asset Price Crash (AAPC) might be the next “Wow! Can you believe it?”
In the meantime, whether it be stocks, bonds, gold, or oil, investors are licking their chops and counting their profits before they are booked. And, they have reason to gloat. Let’s see what all the noise is about.
STOCKS
Since the stock market lows less than five months ago, the Nasdaq Composite Index is up sixty-six percent. At its most recent intraday high of 11,126, it is nearly twelve percent higher than it was before falling by one-third this past March.
Any fears from investors about “technical damage” created by the previous price collapse have been swallowed up by the recent huge gains in the index. Here is what it looks like on a 5-year chart…
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Saturday, August 15, 2020
NASDAQ vs. DJIA: Does the Recent Divergence Matter? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
"The NASDAQ nearly doubled in the last 100 days of its rally."
This quote sounds like it's from 2020, doesn't it?
After all, since its March bottom near 6600, the NASDAQ has rallied to a new record high. Low to high, it has indeed "nearly doubled."
And yet, the quote above is not new. It's from the year 2000.
It appeared in Financial Forecast, a monthly publication by our friends at Elliott Wave International covering stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, the economy and more.
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Friday, August 14, 2020
Stock Market Gap Fills Suggests Market Momentum May Stall / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Technical Analysis teaches us that price Gaps tend to be filled by future price action. This is not something new for many of our readers, whom may be familiar with our mantra ‘Gaps always get filled!’. The big Gap created near February 24, 2020, the start of the COVID-19 market collapse, has recently been filled in the SPY and the TRAN (Transportation Index). We believe this “filling of the Gap” may be a sign that the upside market trend may begin to stall and potentially reverse.
Yesterday, we highlighted the potential for a continued upside bullish trend in the SPY pushing possibly 2% to 4% higher based on our Measured Move technique in our article entitled “President Trump Signs Additional Covid Relief – What to Expect From the Markets“. Today, with the TRAN gapping higher to fill the February 24, 2020, price Gap, we believe the upside move may be exhausting itself and nearing a period of congestion or reversal.
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
Stock Market Correction Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Thursday, August 13, 2020
President Trump Signs Additional COVID Relief – What To Expect from the Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Up until the end of the last week, Republicans and Democrats were locked in heated negotiations regarding the size and scope of pending COVID-19 relief efforts. Our researchers had little hope that any negotiations would be successful given the two sides were so far away from one another in terms of wants and wishes.
On Saturday, August 8, 2020, President Trump signed a new Executive Order (and memorandums) to provide additional relief from the coronavirus that continues to spread in the US and around the world. These measures provide for as much as $400 in enhanced unemployment payments, and also offer Americans with temporary payroll tax relief, student loan deferments, and assistance to homeowners and renters.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Stock Market Melt-Up Continues While Precious Metals Warn of Risks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
What a week for Metals and the markets, folks. The Transportation Index is up nearly 4% for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 3% for the week. Silver is up over 14% and reached a peak near $30 (over 23%). Gold is up over 2.5% and trading above $2025 right now – with a peak price level near $2090. If you were not paying attention this week, there were some really big moves taking place.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Stock Market Proprietary Signals Flashing Warning Signs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Ricky_Wen
Wednesday was a gap-up and hold type of session as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) could not muster enough strength after advancing for about +0.4-0.5% over the prior day’s closing print by hovering in the 3310s-3320s. Basically, the price action has been telling us the range remains confined as it needs time to digest, reset and eventually attempt higher due to the ongoing trend.
The main takeaway from Wednesday and the prior day is that is that the upside targets have finally opened up given the current breakout above 3285/3300. However, the biggest concern is that our proprietary signals have been consistently warning us this week on its sustainability issue, so we must utilize the trending support levels and judge momentum in real-time. Essentially, as long as price action remains above trending supports then it’s the same old grind. However, if trending supports get taken out, things could change quickly into either another breakdown and mean reversion attempt or a prolonged consolidation again.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Storm Clouds Are Gathering for a Major Stock and Commodity Markets Downturn / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts warning signs of a Fed-driven stock market downturn. There is a now widespread, universally held belief, especially among "dumb money" market participants, that the markets cannot drop because the Fed is going to keep creating money in ever greater quantities to throw at them, pumping them higher and higher.
This erroneous belief appears to be based on an assumption that the Fed cares about the economy or the welfare of the citizenry, when the reality is that the reason it exists is as a "wealth transfer engine" whose prime function is to serve as a mechanism for transferring the fruits of the labor of the population at large to the elite cadre at the top of the pyramid—and they even have a pyramid on their Federal Reserve notes.
They achieve this through "systemic inflation," with a fiat money system in place now for many years that enables them to print unlimited quantities of money, which they gift in the first instance to themselves and their crony associates and large, favored corporations, and then let the rest out into the economy, with the tab for all this being pushed onto the hapless citizenry in the form of inflation. This is why the dollar has devalued by about 97% in purchasing power since the Fed came into existence in 1913.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
A 90-Year-Old Stock Market Investment Insight That's Relevant in 2020 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: EWI
R.N. Elliott’s work explains why stocks rallied despite Covid and other bad news
Many of you know that Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the method of forecasting the markets that today we call Elliott wave analysis -- or, more formally, the Elliott Wave Principle.
R.N. Elliott lived from 1871 to 1948, and July 28 was his birthday.
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Monday, August 10, 2020
Debt and Dollar Collapse Leading to Potential Stock Market Melt-Up, / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020
By: Raymond_Matison
Crypto/Blockchain and Central Bank New Digital Currency Directing America’s Near-Term Future
In just a little over one hundred years people’s means of payment for trade has evolved from the original Constitutional requirement that money must consist of gold or silver, to a gold backed paper dollar currency, which at the will of the holder could be converted back into physical gold. Then came the paper dollar currency which for Americans could not be converted into physical gold, while sovereign foreign countries maintained that privilege. The last retreat from gold backing the dollar occurred in 1971, when the gold window was closed to foreign sovereigns. Most of us are only familiar with the paper currency which has no precious metal backing and simply claims that it is a Federal Reserve Note of a specific denomination.
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Thursday, August 06, 2020
Bananas for All! Keep Dancing… FOMC / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Gary_Tanashian
Keep Dancing (while the music plays)
FOMC came, FOMC delivered what we knew they would, FOMC left and the machines drove the markets down and up for a couple days, leaving the situation largely as it had been. NDX near its highs, SPX holding the support of its EMA 20 and DJIA thus far successfully testing its moving average convergence (SMA 50 & 200).
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Tuesday, August 04, 2020
Stock Market Uptrend Continues? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.
SPX Intermediate trend: We should be approaching an important high, with confirmation coming over the near term.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Saturday, August 01, 2020
The Bullish Case for Stocks Isn't Over Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Paul_Rejczak
The bulls didn't seize upon Monday's stock upswing, and prices declined in what might look as a good-bye kiss to the horizontal line connecting the early June highs. Are stocks about to roll over to the downside? Despite yesterday's deterioration in the credit markets, I think it's too early to jump to such a conclusion.
Technology is holding up, semiconductors aren't weakening relatively to the sector, and the rotation into healthcare, materials, and industrials is very much on. The defensives (utilities and consumer staples) are also improving their posture. Consumer discretionaries are firm, and financials are getting better relative to the index.
Yes, going into today's Fed and especially into Thursday's aftermarket with earnings from selected tech behemoths, the market is likely to move higher if yesterday's AMD results are any indication.
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Saturday, August 01, 2020
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More – Part II / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Continuing this multi-part research article, today we are going to explore some more immediate (shorter-term) technical setups. If you missed the first part of this research article, please take a minute to review it before continuing because there is quite a bit of information and related article links that are very important for you to understand this next article. You can view it here.
In the first part of this article, we discussed how our team evaluates a proper market perspective and how we build a consolidated narrative for our subscribers. Some times, it is not easy for us to build a suitable narrative or decide on risk factors as our team may not completely agree with one another. At times like this, we’ll often decide that no action is better than taking any action at all. Generally, though, our team is able to adopt a consensus narrative related to portfolio allocation levels, general market trends and specific target trade setups for the next 5 to 10+ trading days.
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Thursday, July 30, 2020
Stock Market Technical Patterns, Future Expectations and More / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We get a lot of questions from individuals every week. Our research posts contain a lot of varied examples of Technical Analysis, Economic Data Points, Advanced Price Theory, and other more obscure analysis techniques. Yet, sometimes our readers want to know more – how do we read the tea leaves to try to adopt a consensus approach to trading, investing, and hedging the global markets at times like these?
The easiest answer is that we are a team of technical researchers and analysts. Every day we are watching our proprietary modeling systems, various market symbols, and technical/price setups that occur throughout the globe. Because we specialize in US stocks, ETFs, and Futures, our concern is how the US market will react to these impulses. Having said that, we explore ideas about how capital will flow from one asset class to another over time as various rotations in the global market take place.
Every week, we communicate different points of view and do so across different time frames which provides you with a full view of long and short term expectations and potential moves for stocks and commodities.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2020
NASDAQ Stock Market Double Top & Price Channels Suggest Pending Price Correction / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team continues to attempt to navigate the difficult market dynamics ahead as traders’ concerns related to continued global economic functions persist. We believe the US stock market has rallied well beyond sustainable levels and the recent move in the US Dollar and Precious Metals has issued a clear warning that global traders are not buying into the current valuation levels of the major indexes. The NASDAQ (NQ) has rallied to new all-time highs at a time when a majority of the US Stock Market is contracting and concerns about future earnings/revenues continue to shock investors. It is almost as if a large group of traders piled into the “Fed Recovery” message and ignored the fact that the COVID-19 virus event is vastly different than any other price correction we’ve experienced over the past 40+ years.
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