Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Monday, May 06, 2013
Dow, Gold and Jobs Up - The Fed’s Next Step! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
“When you're in jail, a good friend will be trying to bail you out. A best friend will be in the cell next to you saying, 'Damn, that was fun'.”― Groucho Marx
It was quite a week with the FOMC decision, the ECB rate cut and then Friday’s employment report so we have a lot to talk about. I want to start out discussing the jobs report as we saw that the U.S. economy created 165,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.5% from 7.6% even though the size of the labor force increased. What's more, hiring in March and February were revised up by a combined 124,000 jobs. The increase in hiring in April beat Wall Street's forecast for a 135,000 gain, with unemployment remaining at 7.6%. The decline to 7.5% puts the jobless rate at the lowest level since December 2008. Meanwhile, the number of new jobs created in March was revised up to 138,000 from 88,000, the Labor Department said, while February's figure was revised up to 332,000 from 268,000. The number of jobs created in February was the highest since November 2005 for any month that did not include temporary Census bureau hiring.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
Missed Opportunity For Stock Market Bears / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX has again delayed is intermediate correction. A new potential target price provided by P&F chart analysis has been set for the top.
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Monday, May 06, 2013
Federal Reserve Blows More Market Bubbles / Stock-Markets / US Federal Reserve Bank
Last week at its regular policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would double down on the policies that have failed to produce anything but a stagnant economy. It was a disappointing, but not surprising, move.
The Fed affirmed that it is prepared to increase its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities if things don't start looking up. But actually the Fed has already been buying more than the announced $85 billion per month. Between February and March, the Fed's securities holdings increased $95 billion. From March to April, they increased $100 billion. In all, the Fed has pumped more than a half trillion dollars into the economy since announcing its latest round of "quantitative easing" (QE3) in September 2012.
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Saturday, May 04, 2013
Sell in May and go away? The Stock Market QE Sandpile Theory / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
Sell in May and go away? What about "risk off?" And ever more QE? Today's letter is a quick note and a reprise of a popular letter from yesteryear (with a bit of new slant), as I am at my conference in Carlsbad.
But first, I thought I would shoot you a few quick, interesting notes that crossed my desk in the last week. It is almost a ritual for me to mention at this time of year the old investment saw, "Sell in May and go away." It has been surprisingly good advice in most years. My good friend Art Cashin is a curator (and prodigious progenitor) of investment wisdom. He offers these two insights from his research:
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Saturday, May 04, 2013
Stock Market Breaking Out....Not A Rousing Push Up After The Open....... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The masses thought it couldn't happen. That is, wouldn't happen. How can we make an important breakout when you see all these poor-economic reports? Also, it's normal for a market to double or triple top and then crater back down, isn't it? There was a lot of big money that was against the Jobs Report this morning. Many were thinking the number could actually come in negative. In fact, in front of the report pre-market, the futures were slightly lower, so the bulls weren't exactly displaying enthusiasm. They weren't sure and who could blame them.
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Saturday, May 04, 2013
Investor Profit from Several Coming Crises / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
(The Fed is) “creating massive fraud…in the short term it’s great for assets…at some point there’s a levitational problem.” Nouriel Roubini,CNN Money, April 29, 2013
Like it or not, several crises are impending in the next few months. And it is highly likely certain of these are unavoidable.
Fortunately, it is possible to prepare to avoid significant damage from most of these and indeed to profit, as we indicate here.
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Friday, May 03, 2013
World Governments Prepare Stealth Capital Controls as International Money flows Tighten / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
By Kevin Brekke, Editor: Metals & Mining Division :
The EU continues its chainsaw juggling act. The austerity pledge from France is holding about as well as its Maginot Line, while Greece has sworn to meet its fiscal targets in 2014 2015 2016 soon, and the Italians promise they're going to kick some serious fiscal butt as soon as the country returns from holiday.
Friday, May 03, 2013
Investors Scrambling for Low Risk Yields / Stock-Markets / Investing 2013
With the Fed buying $85 billion in government debt every month, effectively holding interest rates far below the rate of inflation, many seniors are struggling to make ends meet. It is no wonder the Dow has hit an all-time high. But for the stock market, where else can we expect to find any return?
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Friday, May 03, 2013
Stock Market Preparing for Pullback, Buy Bad News, Sell the Good / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The SP500 remains in a strong uptrend, but the index has posted a sizable gains for 2013 thus far so it’s only logical that a pullback within this bull market takes place sooner than later.With May now upon us and historically prices fall more times than not I feel a 3-4 weeks correction is on the verge of starting. This Friday we just had very strong economic numbers confirming the economy is recovering. This news has sent stocks sharply higher as shorts cover their positions and investors who are not yet long get into position to profit from higher prices.
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Friday, May 03, 2013
The Euro Crisis is a Moral Crisis, GLD and SLV ETFs Tarnished / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Ireland’s President Michael D. Higgins has intervened in an unprecedented manner in the political debate on the euro zone debt debacle. Yesterday he was reported saying that the Euro crisis was a moral crisis as much as an economic one and he believed that unless the hegemony of Germany was mitigated the ideal upon which the European Union was founded would be lost forever, with grave consequences.
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Friday, May 03, 2013
Stock Market Will Crash When Central Banks Stop Printing / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
Moe Zulfiqar writes: As central banks around the world have taken money printing and easy monetary policy, such as low interest rates, as their key tools to boost economic growth, there are concerns among investors about what happens once they actually stop and bring their monetary policy back towards normalization—raising interest rates and no longer printing money like they are doing now.
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Thursday, May 02, 2013
The Next Wall Street Mega-Scandal Has Arrived / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2013
Shah Gilani writes: Well, it looks like the major financial institutions can't learn a lesson. They're neck deep in yet another financial scandal of global proportions.
U.S. and international securities regulators investigating manipulation of LIBOR, the world's most important set of benchmark interest rates, have uncovered another price-rigging scheme, this one in the $379 trillion market for interest rate swaps.
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Thursday, May 02, 2013
Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini Finally Turns Bullish on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: Economist Nouriel Roubini, also known as Dr. Doom, is finally on board with the stock market upswing; in fact, he believes the stock market can go even higher over the next two years.
Now, if you are familiar with the often bearish opinions of Roubini, you’ll know that his hawkish view of the stock market is somewhat bizarre, but you’ll also understand why he thinks this way.
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Thursday, May 02, 2013
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of U.S. Stocks In Jagged U.S. Economy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Mitchell Clark writes: Get ready for a stock market shakedown. It’s coming. It’s overdue.
I’m not as worried about blue chips. It’s the smaller companies that are all over the place, both operationally and on the stock market.
The lack of uniformity in smaller company sales and earnings exemplifies the jagged state of the U.S. economy. There is no rising tide to lift all boats, that’s for sure. But here are three companies that highlight the good, the bad, and the ugly in this jagged economy.
Thursday, May 02, 2013
How the Fed Creates Stocks Bull and Bear Markets / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
Bull and bear markets don't just happen - they're created by the Federal Reserve. While few investors dispute the power that Fed interest rate policy has on the market, the extent to which it influences the direction of stock prices in both directions is often downplayed. Moreover, the health of the economy is often decided by the Fed's interest rate policy.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2013
Is the Fed Setting Up the Mother of All Stock Shorts? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
The timing may be tricky, but such severe distortions in valuation as shown in the chart below can often set up special opportunities for investment profits when the eventual reversion to the mean, or norm, occurs.
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Wednesday, May 01, 2013
SPX to Join GOLD in Market Panic Cycle? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
After much deliberation and calculations I have concluded that the blue Master Cycle (starting June 4, 2012) concluded on February 26. This is what I call a “sleeper cycle.” The reason that it passed my attention was that the VIX hit a 7-year low on March 14. As a result, the volatility/velocity wasn’t enough to punch below the 50-day moving average as we had in November. The same thing happened in the summer of 2006. The result was that virtually every cycles analyst missed the 4-year low on June 12, 2006.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013
What The Rising Australian Stock Market Could Mean For The AUD/USD / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
Decided to look at the Australian stock market today: there's a pretty strong impulsive rally that should move even higher, as we need five waves from early April low. Are you wondering how this will impact the AUDUSD? We suspect that if investors will keep their money in shares; which is expected based on the price action, then there will be no demand for cash (AUD) which may keep the AUD/USD below resistance.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Stock Market Trying For The Old Highs...Not Quite...A Whisker Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Did we top out today? We basically made a double top at 1597 with a print of 1596 today. That's a double top if ever I saw one. It would be a natural thought to think that it's all over now for the market. It's possible that it was a double top and down we go from here, or we could just as easily hang in there quite well ahead of that massively important ISM Manufacturing Report headed this was early Wednesday, just thirty minutes into the trading day. It would make sense for the market to be more-quiet-than-not tomorrow as it decides what to do based on that very report. No one knows what it will be, but if it repeats last month performance, we're in trouble as the economy took a bad nose dive with the reading falling from near 55.0 down to the 51's. Another move like that and we're in recession. Will the number be able to reverse back up?
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Monday, April 29, 2013
Free Access to Bob Prechters Latest Elliott Wave Theorist / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2013
Greetings,
On Tuesday afternoon (April 23), Robert Prechter, a famed market technician known for calling the roaring bull market of the '80s, the 1987 crash and the March 2009 stock market low, published an urgent new issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist.
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