Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am keeping my post simple, as I am really short on time.
For those that follow my analysis through the years, you would remember that I turned strongly bullish as the S&P 500 approached the 2200SPX region in March of 2020. But, if you also remember that time period, the level of fear in the market even exceeded that seen at the March 2009 lows. So, when I suggested that the market would see a rally from 2200 to at least 4000, with an ideal target in the 6000 region, many simply could not believe what I was saying, as you can see here.
As you can see, most folks thought my view was “unmeaningful,” “absurd,” “insane,” or based upon “chart magic,” while I ignored the “common sense view.” However, my expectation was based upon our Fibonacci Pinball methodology of applying Elliott Wave analysis.
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Wednesday, December 08, 2021
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls missed a good opportunity to take prices higher in spite of the sharp medim-term deterioration essentially since the taper announcement. It‘s the Fed and not Omicron as I told you on Wednesday, but the corona uncertainty is reflected in more downgrades of real economy growth. There are however conflicting indicators that make me think we‘re still midway in the S&P 500 topping process and in for a rough Dec (no Santa Claus rally) at the same time, and these indicators feature still robust manufacturing and APT (hazmat manufacturer) turning noticeably down.
Still, it‘s all eyes on the Fed, and its accelerated tapering intentions (to be discussed at their next meeting) as they finally admitted to seeing the light of inflation not being transitory. The ever more compressing yield curve is arguably the biggest watchout and danger to inflation and commodity trades – one that would put question mark to the point of answering in the negative whether we are really midway in the topping process. Another indicator I would prefer turning up, would be the advance-decline line of broader indices such as Russell 3000. And of course, HYG erasing a good deal of its prior sharp decline, which I had been talking often last week – until that happens, we‘re in danger of things turning ugly and fast, and not only for stocks should 4530s decisively give.
Tuesday, December 07, 2021
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse / Stock-Markets / Metaverse
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Happy Thanksgiving holiday to all my patrons in honour of the 102 pilgrims who left England in 1620 on board the Mayflower to start their new lives in the New World, struggled to grow food until the native americans taught them how to use the land, followed in November 1621 by the first thanksgiving when the native americans were invited by the settlers to a big feast, though I don't think they were invited in subsequent years given outbreak of hostilities . Nevertheless a belated happy thanksgiving!
Facebook hit the nail on the head by bringing forth realisation to the masses of the emerging metaverse's with their corporate name change to META, though most will soon forget what all the fuss was about and carry on their merry way until they next big metaverse story, so this aspect of the Quantum AI mega-trend will continue to trundle along in the background. However savvy investors will already be aware of the "meta-verse" and what it heralds in terms of virtual products and services as the headsets technology plays catchup so as to allow the masses to escape from an increasingly dismal economic future given the rise of machine intelligence automation that seeks to replace human labour as we have seen play out in countless movies such as Ready Player One.
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Tuesday, December 07, 2021
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares / Stock-Markets / Austrailia
By: Submissions
Selling a share on the stock market is as important and intricate as buying one, especially in the Australian market. It's challenging to let go of a profitable asset, and it's impossible to predict when stock prices rise or decline. Many beginners of the industry may regret selling their shares right before they grow, missing out on massive gains, while others may hold on to them for too long, expecting that a declining stock would recover.The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) currently lists approximately 2,000 firms, each with data on share prices and predicted growth or decrease. Shareholders gain or lose money based on how well a firm performs gradually; therefore, it shouldn't be underestimated. While perfectly planning your trades is impossible, many share-selling tips allow you to make wiser decisions. Selling your shares on the ASX? Here are four tips for selling ASX shares, whether for profit or loss:
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Tuesday, December 07, 2021
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
As we’ve been watching the markets recoil away from risks related to the new Omicron COVID variant and other factors, one simple thought keeps running through my head. What if the markets suddenly shift away from this panic selling and resume a rally/recovery trend – possibly pushing to new all-time highs before the end of the year?
Recently, the Put/Call ratio reached a moderate-high near 0.84. I interpret this as long traders buying protection in the event of an extended breakdown in the US/global markets. In the past, typically, when the Put/Call ratio reaches levels above 0.80 – the markets are very close to a bottom.
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Monday, December 06, 2021
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 bounced from the 4,500 level on Thursday, as it retraced most of its Wednesday’s sell-off. Was it a reversal or just another upward correction?For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The broad stock market index gained 1.42% on Thursday after opening slightly lower and bouncing from the new local low of 4,504.73. The index fell the lowest since the October 19 and it went below its early September local high of around 4,546. Overall, it lost 5.04% from the Nov. 22 record high of 4,743.83. But Thursday’s trading session was bullish and stocks were gaining. Was it an upward reversal? This morning stocks are expected to open 0.3% higher after the mixed monthly jobs data release. For now, it looks like a correction within a downtrend. We may see a short-term consolidation following the recent declines.
The nearest important support level is now at 4,500. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,580-4,600, marked by the recent local lows. The S&P 500 remains below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
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Monday, December 06, 2021
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Almost all of the US and global markets volatility has taken place over the last 6+ trading days. Even though economic data continues to show a strengthening US economy and jobs market, the news of the Omicron COVID variant has spooked the global markets. I’m going to illustrate how the markets are nearing critical support levels that are a “Do-Or-Die” level for the market, in my opinion.
Let’s get right into the charts – shall we?
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Sunday, December 05, 2021
How Stagflation Effects Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
My long standing mantra has been that one of the primary reasons to remain invested in AI tech stocks is because they are leveredged to inflation, which on an average basis is true. However when gauging how each individual stock will react to inflation one needs to take key points into consideration such as the stocks valuation where an over valued stock trading on many multiples of the markets average of 20 is going to be finally balanced on a knife edge of future gains vs a bear market where it only takes a small shift in investor expectations to send that stock sharply lower.
Whilst the basic reason why AI stocks are leveraged to inflation is because inflation will inflate their revenues and costs and given that AI stocks are highly profitable then the gap between revenues and costs should expand due to inflation hence are leveraged to inflation.
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market is overbought on multitude of measures and ripe for significant correction even if many people are expecting it to happen. Though I hear many people stating that because so many are expecting a correction therefore it's sods law that it's not going to happen so don't risk missing out on another 10% bull ruin by waiting for a correction!
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Saturday, December 04, 2021
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? / Stock-Markets / Trading Systems
By: Submissions
Trading is very interesting and rewarding when you have proper knowledge, nerves of steel, and fast decision-making skills. All of this starts with knowing the basics of trading.
Today in this article, let us find out more about the golden cross trading pattern.
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Friday, December 03, 2021
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery. Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking. What’s next?
Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks
This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply disruptions for another 12+ months – or longer?
The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing that has taken place over the last 4+ years by global central banks may be acting as an anchor for growth and starting to weigh down global markets. Easy money policies lead individuals and corporations to borrow more and more capital expecting growing returns from sales. What happens when we start to see a mild economic slowdown take place, possibly complicated by inflationary price trends and consumers that pull away from making big purchases?
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Friday, December 03, 2021
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Stephen_McBride
Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor…One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…
This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.
***
“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”
That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.
Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.
New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.
Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…
But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.
Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.
“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.
Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.
Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”
Source: WSJ
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Wednesday, December 01, 2021
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: MoneyMetals
The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.
Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Day That Changed the World?
S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions.
Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs.
Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Coronavirus 2021
By: Gary_Tanashian
Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.
NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.
Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.
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Friday, November 26, 2021
Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up?
The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal.
Thursday, November 25, 2021
A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021
By: Submissions
Buying shares is a form of investment that pays off in the long run. You can acquire shares at one price and sell them at a higher price. This is known as capital gains. From a historical standpoint, shares have provided some of the most resilient after-tax investment returns. You gain the money, pay income tax on it, and afterward deposit it into some kind of account, where it can earn interest. Alternatively, shares can provide income in the form of dividends. They’re usually paid out twice a year. Some companies pay dividends on an ad-hoc basis to demonstrate it has amassed sufficient cash reserves to make dividend payments.
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
If one looks at the general stock market indices such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq then the correction is done and dusted, However look under the hood and one sees huge volatility in the tech sector, huge price drops of stocks crashing by over 10% in a single day and for some by as much as 1/3rd (Peloton). So where many tech stocks are concerned a significant correction HAS TRANSPIRED despite the indices largely giving a head and shoulders shrug by continuing to revert to new all time highs.
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