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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Stock Market 2022

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, August 05, 2022

Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 rose, driven by tech at expense of value, which is normail in economic slowdowns. The junk bond rally however stands out – a prime candidate to attract selling at the nearest whiff of risk-off. The many fundamental reasons described in Monday‘s article, remain intact, if there weren‘t geopolitical ones. Tellingly, the yield curve inversion continues deepening, and bonds aren‘t buying the tightening story in the least – they fear the Fed overdoing it. And that‘s a key catalyst behind yesterday‘s decline in real assets, with its new interpretations of neutral Fed funds rate, or „having enough not to make trade-offs“ inflation remarks.

Sure, ISM services PMI provided a daily boost to the rally, and so the revamp calculations behind tomorrow‘s non-farm payrolls would work (would the pesky hours worked sending the opposite message, get recalculated as well?) in a bid to keep the increasingly FOMO confidence in the S&P 500 rally going. It still has the hallmarks of a short-covering rally, and not of genuine animal spirits – that doesn‘t square with the dreaded R word.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 04, 2022

Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards 29,600 by late August / Early September. Note 29,600 is a TARGET for a low and NOT THE LOW, No one can KNOW THE LOW with any degree of confidence, all one can do is arrive at a high probability target and then look to see if the market confirms that expectation or not, so far the market is confirming it is heading for 29,600.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 04, 2022

Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: EWI

Here's what usually happens when "financial lunacy" is prevalent

You don't hear much about the meme stock craze anymore -- and for good reason.

It's all but dead and has been for months (Barron's, Jan. 28):

A Year After It Began, Meme-Stock Mania Is on Life Support

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, August 04, 2022

Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 refused to swing higher yesterday, and bonds weren‘t much risk-on either. Revisiting the neutral Fed funds rate comments didn‘t do much good for risk sentiment, even though HYG doesn‘t yet reflect that with its closing price. A new attempt at 4,140s looks to be in the making, and even if we get a break higher, it‘s going to be a fake one, and fail. It would also coincide with a rejection of lower VIX values around 22, in favor of reverting back to the high 20s recent average.

The current optimism seems misplaced, and the upcoming ISM services PMI would reveal the slowly deteriorating internals of economic growth. Coupled with manufacturing PMI, these leading indicators illustrate a tough real economy to come in late 2022 / early 2023 – the dreaded R word.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, August 03, 2022

The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

US Housing market variables are in a state of flux for we have the consequences of Quantitative Tightening with the Fed having started to sell $15 billion of Mortgage Backed securities per month, US teetering on the brink of recession given that Q1 saw -1.4% with Q2 also expected to be weak, a coin flip between +0.2 and -0.2 or worse and thus hey presto the RECESSION has ARRIVED! Brewing Financial Crisis 2.0 that I I flagged some 10 months ago where the reverse repo market of $1 trillion has now doubled to $2 trillion which implies increasing counter party risk where we wont know what the banking crime syndicate has exactly been upto in the housing market until banks start failing. Interest rate hikes of 0.75% when the Fed Chairman said 0.75% was off the table which means US rates are probably going to go a lot higher tham most can imagine today, consensus is 3.25% to 3.5%, reality could be north of 5%, so a lot of variables are in a state of flux which means instead of seeing clarity with more data I am seeing confusion!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 29, 2022

What it's like at a Stocks Bear Market Bottom / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This clip from March 2009 illustrates what it's like at a market bottom, that had analysts stating at Dow 6490 that the Dow was nowhere near a bottom which was at least another 20% to 25% further below.

AT THE BOTTOM

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

The Psychology of Investing in a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Every bull market is followed by a bear market and every bear market is followed by a bull market, where courtesy of the electron and inflation mega-trends the general indices are on an upwards exponential trend trajectory. Thus all bear markets are living on borrowed time and thus ones focus should be on accumulating positions in good stocks i.e. those that actually generate earnings and have good prospects for continuing earnings growth that courtesy of bear market negative sentiment results in prices trading to under value stocks i.e. to under X18 earnings, where everything above X18 is carrying a premium which is why I completely sold out of many stocks last year such as Amazon and Nvidia even though they had yet to peak due to the risks of a valuation reset as I covered in my in-depth analysis of August 2021

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Stock Market Bearish Test / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 bears took over from the 4,010s area but didn‘t close convincingly – and bonds didn‘t tank, which means this rally isn‘t yet over. It may extend beyond Monday‘s premarket, and even cover all this time of upcoming key tech earnings reports. These wouldn‘t be as disastrous as is the market‘s expectation – suffice to look at Tesla. And if they are smart to avoid guidance for 2H 2022 (second half), S&P 500 may not stop above 4,030s in the least. HYG holds the key now, VIX isn‘t about to spike sharply, and the dollar isn‘t on a tear either.

Macroeconomically, we have many leading indicators dipping negative – such as the new orders component of the Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index, which makes U.S. recession at the end of 2022 / early 2023 a foregone conclusion. S&P global composite is now negative as namely Europe is struggling already. So, the stock market bulls are running on borrowed time, yet in the best case scenario, it can take longer than the next week for prices to resume their downswing – reality of not lower P/E multiples, but of lower earnings over the quarters ahead, would catch up with stocks as much as the stubborn inflation keeping above 5% no matter the coming two Fed rate hikes. Think stagflation with stocks in a trading range, and reversion to the mean strategies having a good time. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, July 22, 2022

Expert Says the Stock Market Tide Has Gone Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

Expert Michael Ballanger reviews the current market cycle, Elon Musk's impact on the stock market, and reveals the stock he says has a positive outlook amidst the chaotic backdrop of summer 2022.

As a sexagenarian market philosopher soon to become a septuagenarian market philosopher, I am finding myself somewhat embarrassed when younger people (other than family) ask me my opinion on something. I usually try to reply to their inquiry in the manner in which my father (RCAF WWII navigator William Roland Ballanger) used to advise me in the very early days of my hockey career when some youngster would come up for an autograph or a simple “Hi Mike” to which I would always stop, bend down to his height, extend my hand, and say, “Hello to you, and what would your name be?” at which point he (or she) would look up to their parent(s) for guidance and then (almost always) tell me.

At this point in the encounter, I would offer the beaming youngster my hand and as we shook, I would say, “It is a great pleasure to meet you, and thank you for saying hello.”

That behavior came from RCAF Navigator W.R. Ballanger who recounted the story from his life that dwelled in the realm of geopolitical nonsense in the days after the Nazi's threw a historically successful and prosperous German society into total ruin and starvation.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Stock Market Peril Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 had trouble extending gains, bonds didn‘t close on a strong note, and the dollar is readying an upswing. Can easily happen on the ECB move, and poof – there goes risk-on sentiment. Every hike is a move closer to demand destruction, and real assets are afraid – markets aren‘t yet sensing the Fed pivot, and concentrate on hawkish moves ahead. Quoting a bit from yesterday‘s premium analysis:

(…) Stocks are set to muddle through higher – this isn‘t yet the time to translate weakening earnings outlook or declining liquidity into the S&P 500 prices. Bonds need some time before their upswing continues. The dollar retreated, but hasn‘t yet made a top – that event is approaching, and would be seen in greater resilience in precious metals, namely gold. For now, the metals remain lackluster, with copper doing considerably worse (reaching $3.50 would be a success for the red metal this week really, I‘m not counting on that).

More thoughts are to be found within today‘s rich chart sections.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Important: Are your Stocks in Stage 1, 2, 3, or 4? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Submissions

By Justin Spittler

Every investor is asking the same question: When will stocks bottom?

As you know, the S&P 500 is down 20% this year and firmly in a bear market.

Since 1929, the S&P 500’s had 14 bear markets... lasting around 19 months, on average. Which means if the current bear market lasts an “average” length, we’ll see the bottom next summer.

But asking when stocks as a whole will bottom is the WRONG question. Instead, investors should be asking…

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Dow Stock Market 2022 Forecast Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market bounce fizzled out at 4180, thus no break above 4200 to target a trend to 4290 let alone anything higher and one does not need to look far for the culprit. CPLIE of 8.6% as the consensus and likely the FED had convinced themselves to expect inflation to have peaked hence triggering a whiff of panic as to what the Fed will do next to combat inflation.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, July 20, 2022

Stock Market Trend Pattern 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My stock market big picture remains to expect the Dow to target a trend towards a probable bottom by late August / Early September at approx Dow 29,600 So far the stock market has not done anything to negate this scenario and thus remains the direction of travel ahead of my next stock market in-depth analysis.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 18, 2022

Stock Market Risk-On Vs. Liquidity Squeeze / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 ended a losing streak thanks to the still fine retail sales data, and even consumer confidence edged up. In the flattening yield curve characterizing the move to a slow growth phase, it was (and will be) up to tech to outperform value. Also healthcare is likely to see brighter times ahead. If I were to pick two reasons for why I think stocks are bottoming here, it would be the risk-on turn in bonds accompanied by the 10-year yield soundly below 3.25%, and the capitulation in oil stocks (former star performer as these are likely to get pulled down among the last sectors while the key laggards such as tech are on the verge of starting to outperform) coupled with oil holding my $93 support.

Wednesday‘s very hot CPI print means that the pressure on the Fed to keep hiking aggressively, is on. Indeed no pause in inflation, and if PPI is anything to go by (it is) then there is a lot more in the pipeline – and I‘m not bringing up owners‘ equivalent rent, which would continue driving inflation ahead (it‘ll be now service driven as opposed to goods driven). With 50bp obviously not being enough to recoup some of the Fed‘s badly damaged credibility, the question is by how much they hike actually. There is chatter about a full 1%, but another 75bp one looks most probable to me. And should we see signs of inflation moderating (gasoline and heating oil topped in June, which would help the July figures, and with inflation expectations pointing lower now, odds are that we would then get 25bp in September, and that‘s it – midterms next, justifying Fed‘s wait and see posture.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Dow Stock Market 2022 Trend Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is brief stock market update as I seek to complete my extensive analysis of the US Housing Market which the following contents list indicates extent of -

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Stock-Markets

Monday, July 11, 2022

Stocks Bear Market Rally Last Gasp Before Earnings Season / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Before I get started with my stock market analysis here is my take on the political assassination of Boris Johnson, who was stabbed in the back Thursday by so called colleagues Julius Caesar style by a Tory party that effectively committed electoral suicide. Britain demonstrates the illusion of democracy where we vote one person and his party in who soon gets replaced with a waste of spacer that the electorate did not vote for! A loss of a PM for any reason should automatically trigger a general election.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 30, 2022

Stock Market Turning the Screws / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 duly paused yesterday but the (beyond very short-term) outlook remains as bearish as before. Bonds agree, but in the interests of real assets, I would have preferred to see stronger performance by miners and oil stocks. This suggests the next downleg in the stock market would affect precious metals and commodities as well. Some relative resilience (especially in gold) is there but won‘t be enough to change the neutral to bearish outlook in the least. As always in this tightening period (Treasuries keep the pressure and USD is rising), copper (with silver) are to suffer the most. Cryptos – that‘s the same story. It‘s only in oil where I expect the bulls to put up a good fight – the spike didn‘t happen yet, and once oil stocks decouple again from the general stock market, it would be easier. For today, I look for a strong day in the red across the board – good for open profits in stocks and cryptos.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

This “Bizarre” Chart is Wrecking the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Stephen_McBride


nflation just keeps getting worse…

The cost of heating your home has doubled over the past year.

Want to take a summer vacation? That airfare will cost you 50% more than last year.

Whose fault is this?

It’s easy—and partially correct—to blame the US Government and the Fed. After all, they showered Americans with big stimulus checks and generous unemployment benefits, then held interest rates at zero.

But as I’ll show you in this essay… that’s an incomplete explanation.
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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 27, 2022

Stock Market Watching Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 squeeze aka overdue relief rally in the end developed, on sharply improving daily momentum and quite supportive bonds. Would that change the medium-term picture though? It would serve only to suck in bulls, thinking the bottom is in – while the Fed doesn‘t have the stock market‘s back, and the reprieve in market-requested tightening, would pass. The recent decline in oil prices coupled with Fed acknowledgement of some real economy difficulties, isn‘t enough for taming inflation. While prices would moderate their pace of increases, the appreciation in essentials would be unstoppable and to a large degree immune to the real economy staring at a very late 2022 / early 2023 recession (if one wouldn‘t be declared soon because of all the tightening).

Whether Powell goes 50bp or 75bp in July, will be quite indicative – I‘m not excluding hawkish (75bp) September either. The gas and energy measures are of stopgap nature, yet buying a little time for the Fed. Should the central bank not take the opportunity to tighten more, the decision would backfire down the road – just as the transitory talking point did. For now, less tight conditions (driving sentiment) would help stocks make it to the 4,000s probably – but the sell, the ambush is hanging in the air, and would take us to 3,500-3,600 target in my view (the bottom). Both value and tech kicked in on Friday but the dollar isn‘t retreating, money is still sitting on the sidelines.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Everyone and their Grandma is Expecting a Big Stocks Bear Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Everyone and their grandma has been eagerly awaiting a big bear market bounce since at least the start of May that has repeatedly failed to materialise, why? It's because everyone and their grandma has been expecting a big market rally that's why! Here's another update on the state of the AI stocks portfolio in advance of finalising my 3 YEAR US house prices trend forecast.

My bear market expectations remain for the Dow to target a trend to 29,600 due to be achieved during August / Early September for an approx 20% top to bottom bear market target.

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