Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:
(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.
Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.
Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.
Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.
My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!
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Wednesday, November 24, 2021
Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021
By: EWI
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Avi_Gilburt
Before you begin reading this article, I want to warn you that it is quite lengthy and also recaps some of our analysis over the past 20 months. So, if this will offend you or you don't want to hear that, feel free to stop reading right now.
I have been writing for Seeking Alpha now for over a decade. And, during that time, I certainly have had my share of critics. I have been told that I do not understand the markets I track. I have been called names like "insane," "dimwit," "charlatan," and "snake oil salesman." And, I have been told that my "squiggly line" analysis cannot foretell anything, is "absurd," "chart magic," and "highly unmeaningful."
And, these are just some of the comments I received over the last 20 months alone, as you can see for yourself:
Are You As Foolish As Most Market Participants?
So, it has certainly been an interesting past 20 months, in addition to the last decade.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: EWI
It's been noted before in these pages that ...
... Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined
That was an April CNBC headline.
That remains an astounding fact to contemplate and a testimony to a widespread cavalier sentiment toward risk. The basic attitude is that stocks almost always go up.
Well, nearly a half year since that CNBC headline published, the public's interest in stocks has remained intense.
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Tuesday, November 23, 2021
S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Paul_Rejczak
The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?
For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.
The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.
Monday, November 22, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dow Annual Percent Change
The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!
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Saturday, November 20, 2021
US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.
In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.
But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.
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Friday, November 19, 2021
When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: EWI
"Some indicators are making records"
It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.
For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.
Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.
Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:
- Bonds were trading lower
- Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
- Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
- and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs
All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.
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Thursday, November 18, 2021
What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.
COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends
Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.
Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.
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Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.
AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.
Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?
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Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022
Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season
Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis
Contents:
- Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
- Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
- US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
- US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
- Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
- Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
- FED Balance Sheet
- Weakening Stock Market Breadth
- Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
- FANG Stocks
- Margin Debt
- Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
- Dow Annual Percent Change
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
- Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS
- Short-term Seasonal Trend
- US Presidential Cycle
- Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
- 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
- Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
- Investing fundamentals
- IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
- AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
- My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
- HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
- Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
- CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
- Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
- Aukus Ruckus
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022.
SPX Intermediate trend: An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
Tuesday, November 16, 2021
Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.
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Monday, November 15, 2021
Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.
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Sunday, November 14, 2021
Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.
I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.
And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:
(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.
S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.
Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.
Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.
Sunday, November 14, 2021
US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).
Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.
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