Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Happy 2022 Entry

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Jan 04, 2022 - 08:24 PM GMT

By: Monica_Kingsley

Stock-Markets

S&P 500 pared prior steep gains, but thanks to the credit markets message, I‘m not reading into Friday‘s weakness much. There is still more in this rally – value held better than tech, and high yield corporate bonds didn‘t really slide. The year end rebalancing will likely give way to solid Monday‘s performance. While VIX appears to want to move up from the 17 level, it would probably take more than one day to play out.

As the Santa Claus rally draws to its close, the nearest data point worth looking forward for, is Tuesday‘s ISM Manufacturing PMI. It‘ll likely show still expanding manufacturing (however challenged GDP growth is on a quarterly basis), and that would help commodities deal with the preceding downswing driven by energy and agrifoods. Both of these sectors are likely to return to gains, and especially oil is. As stated on Thursday, the open profits would still keep rising.

Precious metals were the key winners Friday, paying attention to the dollar and nominal yields retreat the most. The red metal‘s upswing certainly helped – such were my latest words:

(…) copper is primed to catch up in the short run to the other commodities, gold is well bid at current levels, and together with silver waiting for a Fed misstep (market risk reappreciation) and inflation to start biting still some more while the real economy undergoes a soft patch (note however the very solid manufacturing data) with global liquidity remaining constrained even though the Fed didn‘t exactly taper much in Dec, and nominal yields taking a cautious and slow path towards my 2022 year end target of 1.80-2.00% on the 10-year Treasury.

As I wrote prior Monday, we‘re looking at still positive 2022 returns in stocks – of course joined by commodities and precious metals. The path would be though probably a more turbulent one than was the case in 2021.



Finally, cryptos look to be in agreement with not reading too much to Friday‘s downswings – both Bitcoin and Ethereum are turning up as $46K in BTC held up once again.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of www.stockcharts.com).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook



Nasdaq got a little oversold relative to S&P 500 – this is not the start of a fresh downtrend. Once financials and consumer discretionaries turn up, the rally will be on better footing again.

Credit Markets



HYG could have declined some more, but tellingly didn‘t. Bonds aren‘t ready to turn to risk-off just yet. Upswing attempt next shouldn‘t be surprising in the least.

Gold, Silver and Miners



Gold and silver are looking at a much better year than was 2021. Stock market volatility, GDP growth challenges and persistent inflation would help the metals and commodities rise.

Crude Oil



Crude oil is about to move up again as gains were taken off the table on Friday. With the omicron response and related pronouncements coming in lately from the U.S., what else to expect – a great deal of destroyed demand doesn‘t look to be ahead.

Copper



Copper undid the prior pause,  and looks ready to keep defending the $4.43 area. The long consolidation that started in May, would be eventually broken to the upside.

Bitcoin and Ethereum



Bitcoin and Ethereum may be short-term undecided, but don‘t look willing to decline. Cryptos are still bullish above mid-Dec lows.

Summary

  1. First trading day of 2022 is likely to extend prior gains, resolving the prior sideways move. As risk-on faltered on Friday, S&P 500 and cryptos are likely to catch up, and oil would probably outperform copper today while precious metals digest very solid New Year‘s Eve gains. We‘re nowhere near the good days ending just yet – turbulence would come once Fed tapering gets really noticeable (post Olympics), with VIX trending higher well before that already.

Thank you for having read today‘s free analysis, which is available in full here at my homesite. There, you can subscribe to the free Monica‘s Insider Club , which features real-time trade calls and intraday updates for all the five publications: Stock Trading Signals, Gold Trading Signals, Oil Trading Signals, Copper Trading Signals and Bitcoin Trading Signals.

Thank you,

Monica Kingsley

Stock Trading Signals

Gold Trading Signals

www.monicakingsley.co

mk@monicakingsley.co

* * * * *

All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in