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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, November 20, 2020

Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is having its first significant correction since the start of it's bull run following the corona crash into March 2020. Failure to hold support at 26,500 is eyeing a trend to next support at 25,000. Though MACD is oversold so implies limited downside. Of course price action is heavily influenced by election uncertainty.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 20, 2020

Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: EWI

"This is the highest ratio in the 20-year history of the data."

One of the historic ways that stock market investors exhibit conviction about the direction of prices is to use leverage or participate in the market with borrowed money. Yet another way of putting it is to "trade on margin."

Going all the way back to 1929, that was the downfall of many who viewed the market as a quick way to get rich.

Here's an Oct. 29, 1929 Boston Daily Globe headline:

Margin Account Dumping Brings Stock Crash ...

Yet, you can find examples in more recent history too

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 19, 2020

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The starting point for my stock market analysis is to remind all of the BIG PICTURE, the general trend trajectory for AI stocks as illustrated by my following concluding graph from June 2020. (Machine Intelligence Quantum AI Stocks Mega-Trend Forecast 2020 to 2035! )

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 19, 2020

DJIA Short-term Stock Market Technical Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Short-term Analysis

The stock markets recovery from the Chinese Coronavirus catastrophe has been spectacular. Remember the Dow traded down to a low of just 18,213 on 23rd of March 2020 and then over the next 6 months recovered to a high of 29,200, just 400 points shy of making a new all time high! That is a spectacular bull run! So given that we have entered the weakest period of the year (October) AND that there is an election on the 3rd of November then the least surprising thing should be that the stock market has entered into the correction. In fact the only surprising thing is that the Dow did not start correcting earlier in the month, instead it even tried to break towards a new post crash high Mid October, which was a little puzzling at the time as it implied the market was discounting a Trump election victory that was invisible to most including me. Nevertheless it was ringing the alarm bells that Trump could even win, why else is the stock market soaring.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Tag 30k Twice – Setting Up Stock Market Double Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Sometimes the markets telegraph a key level or future target level in pre-market or post-market trading.  Other times these telegraphed price targets happen during regular trading hours.  Recently, the Dow Jones E-Mini Futures Contracts (YM) generated two unique high price levels near $30,000 over the span of about 6 trading days.

My research team and I believe this “telegraphed high price target level” is a warning of major resistance for traders.  These types of broad market patterns are not very common on charts.  They happen sometimes, but very rarely like this example on the YM chart below.  This Double Top (Tweezers) pattern may be warning that the $30,000 level on the YM could become a major market peak/turning point.  Additionally, the post election rally reached this $30,000 level on the day Pfizer announced the vaccine data, then sold off quite consistently throughout the regular trading session.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Are You Getting Ready For The Next Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Crash

By: Avi_Gilburt

First published on Seeking Alpha pre-open on Monday November 16: I have read one article after another calling this market delusional, wrong, crazy, impossible, dangerous, a bubble, etc. And what is common amongst all these articles is that none of the authors expected the market to rise this high. Moreover, they all point to Covid as the primary reason for their bearishness. So, when they don’t understand what is going on, they resort to name calling.

But, calling the market names will not help your investment accounts. Moreover, has basing your market perspective on Covid helped your investment account? Rather, it behooves you to seek out a better way to understand the market.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Stock Market Uptrend in Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some good evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009.

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Access to Critical Market Reports / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

Like millions of people, you may have tried your hand at intraday trading this year.

Sure, today’s market platforms make executing your trades easy. But winning consistently is still hard. Especially when the waves are as big as they are right now.

This will help. For 3 days only on November 10-12, our friends at elliottwave.com are hosting a new, trader-focused event, "Critical Opportunities FreePass.".

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Stock Market Dow Futures Reach 30,000 on News of COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Success / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Early this morning, the US stock market indexes/futures rallied on news that Pfizer’s new COVID-19 vaccine late-stage trials appear to show 90% effective rates.  Overall, this is very good news for the US and global market economic recovery efforts. It means we may be able to get back to somewhat normal very quickly (as soon as the Fast-Track FDA approval process is complete).  The YM (Dow Jones E-Mini Futures) reached a high of 30,000 very early today – which is a huge psychological level for traders.

After the US elections last week and the continued news of the outcome – the global financial markets were really wanting some type of good news instead of more chaos and unknowns.  The Pfizer news hit the pre-market trading like a booster rocket.  Before the opening bell in New York, the Dow Jones futures were up over 1500 points – which is simply incredible.

If you’ve followed my research long enough, you’ve heard me use the term “Pop-n-Drop”.  A “Pop-n-Drop” is when something big drives a big market gap which quickly falls down later in the trading session(s). This happend because market prices always have a way of reverting back to somewhat normal trading ranges.  Let’s take a look at a few different charts/sectors to help illustrate this type of setup.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Stock Market Secular Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Donald_W_Dony

The secular upward trend of the world's stock markets never missed a beat due to the ongoing turmoil surrounding the U.S. President election this last month.

The benchmark world index (Dow Jones Global Index) is set to post a new all-time high later this month which continues the pattern of 11-years of higher highs and higher lows (Chart 1).

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Stock Market Correction Curtailed by US Election / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far, will be gauged after the September-November correction.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Intermediate correction may have ended.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

What Causes a Financial Bubble? / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble

By: Travis_Bard

Financial bubbles refer to a situation in which an asset sees a rapid increase in price and demand driven by a theoretical interest, then crashes as the rising prices become unsustainable over time. When reaching a specific value, the asset bubble bursts, and its prices reduce to a level that more accurately reflects its intrinsic value. Financial bubbles are typically attributed to a sudden change in investor behaviour, in which hypes, excessive speculation and the strong desire to ‘jump on the bandwagon’ of a certain trending asset play a part. In this article, let’s explore the potential causes of a financial bubble.

For a comprehensive history of financial bubbles, check out this comprehensive timeline by DailyFX.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 08, 2020

What to Make of an “Irrational” Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Investing 2020

By: John_Mauldin

Justin Spittler : We’re also smack dab in the middle of earnings season. This is when companies tell the world how their business is doing. They reveal how much their sales grew and if they turned a profit.

Good quarterly results, as I’m sure you know, can cause a stock to race higher. Bad earnings, on the other hand, can send a stock into a tailspin. In fact, it’s quite common for a stock to move 20%, 30%, or even 40% in a day based on earnings.

More importantly, earnings can set the tone for a stock going forward. They can dictate a stock’s trajectory for weeks, months, or even years. But here’s the thing. Not all good earnings ignite powerful rallies. Sometimes, companies crush earnings and barely move or even fall on the news. We’ve been seeing this play out a lot recently.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 08, 2020

Why the Market's "Faith in the Fed" May Be Dwindling Fast / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: EWI

A chart that could be "a proxy for the market's faith in the Fed" shows "a classic loss of momentum"

Legendary financier John Pierpont Morgan was -- for all practical purposes -- a one-man central bank before the Fed came into existence in 1913.

During the financial panic of 1907, the banking titan used his influence to provide bailouts for faltering financial institutions. And, back in 1895, he had actually loaned the federal government money during another crisis.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 08, 2020

Get Ready for a Post-Election ‘Fed Wave’ of Inflation / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing

By: MoneyMetals

As accusations of voting irregularities mount, President Donald Trump’s legal team is descending on Pennsylvania and Georgia as well as multiple battleground states that have been called by media outlets for Joe Biden.

It will be an uphill battle for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes. As of this writing on Thursday morning, the final outcome of the presidential election remains uncertain.

One thing that is now certain: Voters denied Democrats the “blue wave” many pollsters and pundits had been forecasting.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 06, 2020

THE STOCK MARKET BIG PICTURE / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore?  Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 06, 2020

Trump or Biden - USA is Still Going Bananas / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.

However the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory.  One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12.  This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).

SPY 240 MINUTE CHART

After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward.  These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.

Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-November correction.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Intermediate correction could continue as a large sideways pattern at least into mid-November, and perhaps until the end of the year.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


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