Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Stock-Markets / Investing 2022 Apr 09, 2022 - 06:58 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
What if you could know the future, had a chart that showed you how the stock market could trend into the middle of May 2022, how much value would you put on it? More than $4 bucks?
We'll that's what my Patrons got in a market brief at the end of March 2022, a trend forecast based on Deem neurons right into the middle of May 2022 that so far has spooky Mulder style tracked the S&P quite accurately.
Market briefs are an additional relatively short pieces (by my standards) that Patrond are now also in reciept of as I quietly beaver at the mega-pieces of analysis such as my just posted UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025 where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here!
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THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
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UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
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UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
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UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
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UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
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This article is part 2 of 2 of my in-depth analysis that mapped out how low AI tech stocks could trade down to during the the coming series of stock market panic events of 2022 first Made avaiable to Patrons who support my work. (Part 1 M = F - Everything is Waving! Stock Market Forward Guidance)
Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
m = f - Everything is Waving!
How to Invest in Stocks 20202 and Beyond
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Storm
Stock Market Forward Guidance
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
Current State of Draw downs
Quantum AI Stocks Portfolio Current
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Earnings Growth Factor
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES!
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM!
MICROSOFT Short and Sharp
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the question.
AMD - The Chip Master
TSMC - The World's Supreme Chip Fabricator
AMAZON the Dark Horse!
ARKK SARK SHORT FUND
Note: The information provided in this article is solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation or personalised advice.
Current State of Draw downs
My analysis of 12th Jan laid out how low I expected stocks to trade down to for potential buying opportunities (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond)
To date those once distant draw downs have been achieved for Nvidia, AMD. Facebook, Amazon, ASML, Microsoft and Intel. Which was further refined into buying levels in my brief buying levels message of 24th Jan expanded in my last analysis of 31st Jan as an indication of how low stocks could go by referring to my 3rd buying levels. One has to realise that for one to buy for instance Facebook at Buying Level 3 of $232 then Facebook has to actually FALL to $232 to enable one to do so! And for that to take place then there has to be a reason to generate the selling to attain the buying level, a reason that one will only become apparent in hindsight!
In respect of which so far only Facebook has won the award for achieving MAX DRAWDOWN of $233, and with it executing my final Buy limit order at $232 so that my portfolio is now stuffed to the eyeballs with Facebook stock, no more!
So I am basically mostly investing on autopilot as I have my buying levels around which I have tweaked limit orders as I continue to build up my exposure to Quantum AI tech stocks after having sold 80% of my holdings during the second half of last year. bringing my exposure down to barely 20% of portfolio (AI stocks+ high risk stocks + Portfolio cash = 100%). that I am now in the process of building to a target at least 55% invested so that coupled with high risk stocks at 24% I will be back to being about 75% invested,
Quantum AI Stocks Portfolio Current
Here's a quick review of what I have been upto in terms of buying AI tech stocks over the past few weeks, 2 weeks ago my exposure was 22.7% (AI stocks + High Risk + Cash on account =100%)
This had soared to To 31.7% a week ago as I binged on Intel, AMD, Amazon and funds, whilst lightly expanding exposure to the likes of Microsoft and Google.
By the end of last week my portfolio had expanded to 36.9% as I gorged on Facebook's collapse, and introduced newcomers Micron, AMAT, and Lam Research to my list. Whilst taking some profits on Amazon and Google's price spikes.
My strategy remains to continue to build my AI tech stocks portfolio upto about 55% invested (AI+High Risk+ Port Cash = 100%),
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
This is how I expect things to play out over the next few weeks -
The prime candidates for busting to new lows are - Nvidia, AMAT, Facebook, Tesla, LRCX, ASM, MSFT, MED,
Stocks that could hold their lows are AMD, AVGO, iNTEL, QCOM, TSM but it's 50/50.
Whilst Google and Amazon have settled into trading ranges, i.e. it is a tough ask to expect new lows given their recent powerful rallies on the back of strong earnings.
As for Apple, that stock continues to do it's own thing. It 'should' join the party by breaking below it's recent low of $155 and target sub $150 but it refuses to play ball.
So I will be focused on picking up Nvidia, Microsoft and LRCX, MED at fresh lows and some more AMD and TSM at the bottom of their ranges. I have no plans to buy any more Facebook after having gorged on the stock following earnings crash.
Whilst I will try and pick up some more Google and Amazon towards the lower ends of their trading ranges. And I still await Qualcom to break it's lows.
My buying levels remain as per my last analysis though I would be more inclined to buy Google at between $2580 and $2512. And Amazon below $2800. Looking at all of the levels, Facebook pops out as so far the only stock to have achieved ALL of it's buying levels with the last being $233 with my last limit order being executed at $232.3, so where Facebook's concerned it's job done regardless of what transpires for the stock over the coming weeks.
At the end of the day at best I see this bear trend being about half done i.e. the Dow is targeting $31k. Therefore my strategy remains to buy deviations from the highs, I am aiming typically for a 25% deviation as there is the potential for a 50% draw down which happens far more often than most investors realise! With my buying range between -20% to -50%, i.e. I plan to do the bulk of my Nvidia buying between $210 and $180, which is about half it's high.
SO WHEN ONE BUYS STOCKS UNDERSTAND THAT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE STOCK WILL TRADE MUCH LOWER AFTERWARDS, perhaps as much as another 25% lower! As illustrated by my buying levels. I buy the panic, I buy falling markets, that way one is looking ahead instead of in the rear view mirror which is one of hoping that the rally soon ends and stocks fall back down to previous lows because one failed to buy when they had the chance to do so.
After the current panic passes I will revert to posting my primary AI stocks table as the main table for data, presently the table retains my original pre-panic buying levels as of 22nd November 2022 for comparison purposes with levels achieved in red against those that remain pending. Remember all of these levels once upon a time seemed far out of reach, who could have imagined Nvidia would fall from $336 to $236 over a couple of months! Google to $2625! Microsoft to $282, Intel to $48, okay I'll give you Intel, but many of the levels have now been achieved and then some!
Large version - https://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2022/Feb/NW-AI-Stocks-Port-Table-Big-5-2-22.jpg
Also note upgrades to the table in response to Patron feedback. I now include a column the shows my current exposure as a percentage of target for an explanation of what this exactly means see item 7 in my earlier analysis (HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond). But basically it shows what I am focused on accumulating i.e. I am only 30% invested in Google of target exposure so I am eager to buy more Google stock. Whilst I am fully invested in Intel and Facebook.
Earnings Growth Factor
Another new column is the earnings growth factor. A useful little pocket knife indicator that I use that unlike the EC ratio anyone can calculate for themselves for any stock by following these steps -
1. Obtain stocks current PE ratio (last 4 EPS).
2. Divide share price by (current quarters EPS X 4).
3. Divide Step 1 PE by Step 2 to get the earnings growth factor.
So for Google -
1. Current PE ratio 25.5,
2. Current Share Price $2860 divided by (EPS $30.69 X4 = $122.76) = 23.3
4. 25.5 divided by 23.3 = 9%.
The higher the growth factor the better the stocks future prospects. Now couple this with the PE ratio and the EC ratio and one gets a good picture of a stocks valuation right now.
For instance look at Amazons EGF of 71%! Conversely look at intel's negative EGF of -20%. However that bad score is partially offset by the low PE of 8.8 and and EC score of 13.
So for a truly great stock to buy right now one wants to see a high EGF, coupled with a low PE and low EC.
The number 1 stock right now that fits the bill is surprise, surprise APPLE! The one stock that has so far refused to budge lower! Though this list of GOOD stocks contains several close contenders such as Qualcom, AMD, Nvidia, and of course Amazon!
I have also added the stocks that were on my watch list to buy into the primary table that I briefly covered in my last analysis, apart from Oracle, and where apart from Micron these were all unplanned buys where distant limit orders that I have had in place for some time were triggered during the recent sell off.. Stocks that I will cover in-depth in future updates, but all are what I consider secondary stocks. Whilst AMD and TSMC now rise to Primary status. And if one needs clarification on this Primary means that these are THE PRIMARY AI tech stocks to be invested in for the long-run, with Google as numero uno.
And now for visualising the buying levels for the 9 primary AI tech stocks..
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES!
Strong earnings growth and news of a 20 to 1 STOCK SPLIT sent GOOGLE soaring towards it's all time highs, Stocks tend to run higher into a split and fall afterwards so I plan to be fully invested by Mid June and will likely take profits on the split on 15th July. If you hold whole shares then you will get 20 new Google shares, if you hold fractional shares you will likely get $$$'s in exchange for your fractional holdings which may not be so bad given that the stock should fall after the split. Google is Numero uno! Should be at the very core of every stock portfolio, at 2.4% of my portfolio my holding is light, I want to see my holding rise to about 7% of portfolio. Again just remember if you own a fractional share then you will likely get cash instead of split shares, so if you hold say 1.8 shares right now then you definitely want to look at pepping your holding up to over 2.0, unless you want the cash.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
The one stock that I most wont to buy has barely given me the opportunity to accumulate which encourages me to buy dips below $2600 and likely make a big buy at around $2512. Basically Google is a fantastic stock and recent earnings mean that $2512 would put the stock on a PE of just 22. So those distant buying levels may never materialise instead the best one can hope for right now is around $2350, a case of to buy Google during any sympathy sell off with other stocks.
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM!
The best time to buy a stock is when no one will touch it would a barge pole and that is where Facebook currently sits, where all those who were FOMO-ing before the earnings announcement such as this clown on CNBC Kevin O'Leary who said he was buying META big before earnings that's at about $325 per share!
The same CNBC clowns who were FOMO-ing into Meta days ago are now ditching their stocks after earnings at the lows (that's if they ever held any in the first place!), like this clown selling at $234, which illustrates why the financial media is like a field of reeds blowing in the wind!
So where CNBC is concerned - Buy FB at $322 to then sell a day later at $234! What a JOKE!
The Facebook platform IS DYING, hence Zuckerberg is going ALL IN on the METAVERSE to the point of changing the corporations name to META. The metaverse WILL be HUGE, BIGGER than smartphone's are today but it will take TIME! The trend towards which is being accelerated by Facebook and the other tech giants piling tens of billions of dollars per years towards developing, so unlike the clowns on CNBC who have kicked the METAVERSE can a decade down the road, it's probably going to materialise in significance a lot sooner than most can imagine today where the key metric to watch will be in sale of VR headsets which will be a function of field of view and resolution per eye in which respect we are probably something like a couple of years away from the release of such a mass market headsets, perhaps with the Quest 4. Though META are developing more expensive headsets so as to raise the profile of VR headsets towards that of top end smartphone's. As it is easy to forget that once upon a time the market for top end smartphone's had typical pricing in the range of £300 to £400 but now the market is prepared to pay between £1000 to £1500 for a smartphone! That is what META has in mind for the direction of travel for VR headsets! Which will take TIME to innovate and to adjust consumer perceptions of how much they should pay for a VR headset, where today the market is conditioned to pay 300 to 400 for Quest headsets.
My last FB buying level of $233 had been achieved! I now have reached MAX exposure, the next stop will be reduce exposure a little on any rally to $300, in terms how low the stock could go? Well 50% off the high is $192, and above that there is support along previous highs at $224.
MICROSOFT Short and Sharp
If you blinked you missed the plunge on earnings! For most folks the best they could have got was about $277 via limit orders. I bought Microsoft in the green zone all the way down to $280, but got greedy with my big order at $274, not filled. so I remain stuck at about 18% invested of target exposure (1% of portfolio) as I still await the big buys to be triggered. Microsoft is reinforcing itself as a gaming giant by bidding $64 billion for Activision. To imagine that Microsoft is not going to have a big foot print in the meta-verse is a big mistake whilst they do have their own VR headsets however so far they are tethered to PC's apart form the augmented reality Hololens which I see as an expensive stop gap, so far behind where Facebook is..
With stocks such as Microsoft one has to resist the temptation to FOMO in, instead bide one's time for the opportunity to materialise because whilst lithe stock is a lot cheaper in valuations terms than a few weeks ago, it still carries the overvaluation noose around it's neck that 'should' deliver more opps. so I will bide my time and start accumulating Microsoft small at sub $282, buying say every $4 drop all the way to the buying levels of $278, $262, and $242 so that regardless of what transpires I am at least left holding 1/3rd of that which I seek to hold.
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE
Apple soared on earnings to $175, subsequent price action has hardly seen any reaction so in my opinion Apple continues to trade on thin air at near a $3 trillion valuation trading on a PE near 29 with the market awaiting release of Iphone SE with 5G on March 8th, a lower cost version of the iphone for those who don't want to pay over $1000 for an iphone. Apple is a good stock but it trades on a nuts valuation, hence my exposure is a tiny 4% of target.
Apple may end up being the last man standing, the last stock to plunge, but plunge it shall! I won't be buying any significant exposure to Apple above $150, and probably not much between $140 to $150. For me to buy Apple big it needs to fall below $140, My original buying level was $128, which was chosen for good reasons and why it may yet prove to be around which I do the bulk of my buying of Apple stock. But I will buy a fair chunk of Apple at $140. The downside risk is a for a slide to $115. Maybe I will do a test and only buy 15% at $1.40 and wait for $125 before doing any further big buys, $125 would place the stock on a PE of of about 19.3 against current 26.5.
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the question.
As suspected failure for the ARM deal to go through is about to become manifest and was expected to trigger a sell off buying opportunity, Though Nvidia IS firing on all cylinders, it's just that as has been the case for the whole of 2021, NVIDIA IS OVER VALUED! My exposure stands at 9.6% of target (0.5% of portfolio) which is actually down on last week as I took profits given that I do expect Nvidia to be one of the stocks to take a tumble to fresh lows. It is hard to believe that the stock can trade below it's recent low of $209, after all that WAS my target draw down for the stock! So it may yet turn out to be THE LOW, after all the bounce back from $209 was quite powerful, i.e. lots of buy the dippers stepping in. Nvidia is a tough stock to buy, because it is a FANTASTIC CORPORATION that trades at a too high a valuation. Which means no matter what price I pay for Nvidia in hindsight it will probably prove to VERY HIGH! It's one of those things where you know how good a corporation is and one is desperate to expand ones exposure to but you also know its DAMN expensive, especially when we look at where Facebook is trading right now i.e. on a valuations that's less than 1/4 that of Nvidia! Is Nvidia worth 4 TIMES as much as Facebook? Seriously? And this is why despite Nvidia's price plunge to date I see a lot more potential downside for this stock. Maybe I should just do the same as for Apple? I.e. buy to just 1% of portfolio and then hold fire for much, much lower prices IF they materialise great, if not then at some point I would have to bite the bullet and buy Nvidia for something like $265 a share!
I need to get a move on with developing my AI's to the point that they take such decisions out of my hands!
Putting the buying levels on the chart clearly shows that they are far too closely clustered, the range from $208 to $182 is just 13%, too tight! It's just that when I set the buying levels I was grateful for the $100 / 30% drop from $336 to below $236, what more could one ask for? $209, that's a whopping 40% off the high! 50% is at $173. How many could imagine Nvidia falling to 50% from it's high of barely 2 months ago! Whilst the price I have always had at the back of my mind is $140, but it seems so distant from $346, a 60% drop! A Cathy Wood stock type drop! Would even put Facebook's 45% drop to shame! The thing is a drop to $140 would still leave Nvidia trading at 40X earnings, compared to Facebook on just 17! So it is definitely possible.
My current exposure is just 10% of target (0.5%) after taking some profits at above $250, and I have limit orders to start accumulating at $209.5, $207, $202. $192, $190, and $182. Clearly they are too closely clustered so I am going to scrape $207 and $190, in favour of more distant limit orders at $178 and $172, and see what happens. With the risk of having to bite the bullet and some weeks down the road and pay north of $260 for a larger stake.
AMD - The Chip Master
AMD is another stock that is firing on all cylinders paving the way to launch the next generation of Ryzen processors whilst still capitalising on 2021's Ryzen 5000 series with 3D variants putting added pressure on Intel which always seems to be one step behind AMD. There's nothing quite as sweet as buying back a stock near $100 that one had sold a month earlier north of $150, makes all the time and effort put in worth while. In terms of position I am at about about the half way mark with current exposure at 54% invested of target (2.7% of portfolio) so I will be buying more AMD.
AMD HIT Support at $100 and bounced (actually traded down to $99.25). The primary buying levels for Nvidia going into the sell off were $119.8 and $101.8. So there was no excuse for not buying the sell off towards $100. Technically this was as perfect chart price action as one could hope to expect, my objective is to buy more when AMD revisits $100 and again at the lower buying levels of $90 and $82. Though actually I will do what I did going towards $100 which is to scale into the position i.e. to buy roughly every 3 or 4 dollar drops, so $102, $100, $96, $92,$90, $88, $84, $82 with the higher limit orders already in place.
TSMC - The World's Supreme Chip Fabricator
TSMC's stock price has been very disappointing as it has not offered any opportunities to accumulate into at its buying levels. Whilst I was tempted to take some profits on the earlier rally to above $140, However I held off doing so because I deemed my exposure to be too light, especially after having reduced my exposure to AMD, so not eager to reduce my exposure further by selling any of TSMC as well. So far we are not getting any of the buying levels, plus this is not an easy stock to buy within a tax free wrapper i.e. you can no longer buy TSM from within an ISA! Which was another reason why I was reluctant to sell given that I hold it within an ISA so once sold I would not be able to buy it back. The alternative is to buy it in a SIPP or outside a tax free wrapper. The stock still carries a high PE of 29 so does need to drop before buying, though pays a 1.5% dividend but unfortunately is not well covered so the dividend may not be reliable..
The script was for the stock to fall to just under $109 and therefore trigger a buy limit at $109. Unfortunately the stock carved out support around $115. The key reason for this relative strength is the fact that the stock has been in a trading range for over a year during which time earnings have been playing catchup, i.e. a year ago the PE ratio at the same price was 40, today it is 1/4 cheaper at 30. So earnings are playing catch up to price, hence why the stock is proving so stubborn in declining despite widespread tech stock panic therefore I am tempted to buy some just under $115 and hold off buying larger at $109 or better whilst waiting for a panic event to delivery $97 or even $81, though neither look likely, perhaps China will do something to nudge the stock price lower.
AMAZON the Dark Horse!
Blasted off into space on strong earnings just as I was getting ready to gorge on it's post earnings corpse Facebook style. Still I had built a sizeable stake via dozens of small orders in the lead up to the earnings report which painted a picture of a stock that looks set to put earnings (profits) before reinvestments, or it could be just a one off, i.e. cashing on the Christmas trade boosted by the last pandemic wave of any significance.
My current exposure has fallen a little to 1.7% from 1.9% of the week before as I took the rally to and ABOVE $3,200 to take profits in advance of further buying opportunities in Amazon later, especially if it comes anywhere near filling it's distant buying levels. The PE drops to 48.7 but on the EGF basis the PE falls to 28 hence why the stock popped higher so strongly.
The stock price short up like a rocket which acts as a timely reminder that most investors, perhaps 99% should NOT short stocks! This is what happens! Amazon looked like a sure bet for a earnings induced drop and look what it DID! DO NOT SHORT STOCKS because SODS LAW ensures you WILL LOSE BIG! Right now I am a seller above $3,200, the higher the stock goes the more I will sell, maybe not to the point of selling all or even most of my position but I could easily reduce it to 1% of portfolio from current 1.7% if I see it the stock trade above $3,200. The stock price 'should' succumb to gravity which means it should trade below $2900 once more. Though given the price action it's a tough call for Amazon to fulfill it's far distant buying level of $2288 which is what I was expecting Amazon to achieve., Still I continue to retain that distant limit order in case it eventually comes good.. However, I will be accumulating a series of small buys sub $2900, with the objective of building my exposure to 2% of portfolio, and further towards max exposure of about 4% of portfolio . The chart clearly shows that there are too many buying levels clustered together, therefore one can skip 2642 and go straight for 2526 and $2288, with the baby buys remaining at between $2832 and now down to $2642.
So to recap I am selling (taking profits) above $3,200 with a view to buying SMALL BELOW $2800 to build up my position to 2% from the current 1.7% (or less if I sell more today), with my big buys to take place below $2600, in fact my one and only large limit order is in place at $2288. So apart form small buys I may just hold off buying big altogether and see if $2288 gets filled or not. After all Amazon remains a borderline Primary AI stock.
ARKK SARK SHORT FUND
The cherry on the top for the demise of ARK funds is the SARK short fund that moves inverse to Cathy Wood's ARK fund by shorting the stocks that ARKK are invested in. So if ARKK moves down 5% SARK moves up 5%.
So do the math, ARKK has net outflows of funds, SARK has inflows of funds that are used to SHORT ARK funds!
NOTE! I AM NOT SAYING TO SHORT ARKK! As the time to short ARKK was when it was trading OVER $100 not now, not after a 50% collapse, the risk vs reward is just not there for that. Still this puts downwards pressure on ARKK, which if it does not help push ARKK lower at least dampens future prospects because the bigger SARK grows the more it will short ARKK holdings. AGAIN DO NOT SHORT STOCKS! NOT UNLESS you hold EQUAL LONG holdings to cover the shorts with.
And do check out the comments on my latest posts where I answer queries, give feedback on events and brief updates on expectations such as this before last Fridays open -
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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