Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Is the Stocks Bull Dead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Has the bear market started?
Intermediate trend – The correction has turned into a short-term debacle which may not be over.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Stock Market Bottoms are a Process / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
What a roller coaster day on Friday for the U.S. stock market. The S&P went up and down near its 200 day moving average, closing right on top of this line.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2018
Stock Market Crash: Time to Buy Stocks? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
In yesterday’s market study I said that the U.S. stock market would probably fall a little more. Upon further analysis, I said that the S&P would probably fall below its 200 dma to at least 2729.
Lucky call or not, that’s exactly what the S&P did today.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2018
Has The Stocks Bear Market Begun? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
It seems the pundits have lost their way. The reasons for the market moves have now confounded most market participants and pundits to such an extent, and they are stretching so far to provide a reason for a market move, that we have moved from the ridiculous to the sublime.
In the last several years I have outlined how the market has completely ignored the dozens of negative geopolitical events that were supposed to have adversely affected our market as it has continued to rally towards our long-term targets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 12, 2018
US Transportation Index Suggests Stock Market Bottom May Be Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, is alerting our members that the Transportation Index has reached its first level of support near 10,500 and this level may be the start of an extended bottoming formation. If you have been following our research posts, you already know that we predicted this recent downside price swing over 3 weeks ago with our Adaptive Learning Predictive Modeling systems. You will also understand that our modeling systems suggest this move may not end till early November (somewhere between November 8~12). Keeping this in mind, we are now alerting you to be prepared for the following.
Friday, October 12, 2018
Stock Market Storm Crash, Dow Plunges to Trend Forecast! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's my latest analysis update to my stock market trend forecast for the whole of the remainder of 2018 :
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 11, 2018
SP500 Stock Market Sell Off Well Forecast by President Trump / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: readtheticker
TRUMP said 'we may have to take a hit!. No kidding, with stocks at extreme all time highs, add on the trade wars and you are surely to upset the worlds demand engine (i.e China). Of course you can not change anything with out breaking a few conventions, therefore investors can not be blind to changes in asset prices as president Trump made his intentions very clear. An investor must understand how the markets work, we know algo's work the intra-day market to the upside and after the SP500 95 pt sell off today it looks like they work to the down side. Plus Mr Market wants to find out the level of Powell 'fed put' is. Is it like Mrs Yellen at -10% ? Or is much lower. The things we are about to learn! Maybe the SP500 sell off is the Democrats move against the US president, as he has owned the 2018 rally? If it is President Trump warned all investors on June 4th 2018
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Just How Bearish is the Stock Market’s Breadth? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Mainstream financial media is tripping all over itself about “the stock market’s terrible breadth and why the stock market will crash”. Because hey, bad news sells like hot cakes.
*A lot of traders have an obsession with breadth. The reality is simple: with dozens of breadth indicators, there will always be one that screams bearish.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Transportation Breakdown Hinting to Global Economic Weakness? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team highlighted the recent breakdown in the Transportation Index ($TRAN) as a very strong sign that the global economy and US economy may be starting to show early signs of weakness.
The Transportation Index typically leads the markets by about 3 to 6 months (on average). When we see a big breakdown in the Transportation index, as we’ve seen recently, it immediately raises red flags that one or more component of the global markets may be crashing. At this point in the Seasonal Cycle, one could expect the Transportation Index to rotate lower a bit. Our concern is that global economic factors may be driving China and other markets into much deeper corrections – which could cause the US and other world markets to correct a bit further.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
Presidential Cycle 3rd Year (after midterm election) VERY Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The third year of the presidential cycle is the year after the midterm elections (i.e. November 2018).
Historically, this is extremely bullish for the U.S. stock market.
Here’s what the stock market does next after midterm elections.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 09, 2018
Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Plunger
What Happened?
Could everything have changed in a 24 hour period? Apparently, Yes, Over the span of 24 hours markets woke up and realized that the FED may be at the cusp of committing Policy Error. Recently bonds have been teetering on the edge and this week Jerome Powell gave bonds a push off the ledge. Bonds delivered a message and the stock market was listening. Stocks got derailed along with bonds.
Yields blew out and sucked the air out of the stock market. So why the big move in bonds? Two reasons:
- Less demand for LT bonds due to the higher cost of hedging caused by higher yields, higher USD and emerging markets dropping.
- FED Chair Powell advertising he plans on being very aggressive with rates. He plans on raising rates until something breaks.
Monday, October 08, 2018
Stock Market Seasonal Influence at Work / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Correction in progress.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 08, 2018
Stock Market Sell Off, Dollar Rally Expected, Now What? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Brad_Gudgeon
This has been a most difficult stock and precious metals market to forecast. I am fortunate to have made my clients over 18% the past 6 weeks. Yesterday, I went to cash after having cashed my volatility (UVXY), short GDX (DUST) and short SPX (SPXS) ETF.The VIX futures went into backwardation Friday, and the last two times this occurred was February 2, 2018 and August 21, 2016. The next trading day took the SPX down about 4% on each occasion. We have had horrible internals and the momentum indicators have not confirmed the recent topping action, so anything is possible.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 07, 2018
Stock Market Breaking Down After Long Uptrend. More short-term Weakness Ahead? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Perspective is important. After a very steady rally over the past 3 months, the U.S. stock market is finally starting to “break down”. But before you panic, realize that this “break down” is very small in the grand scheme of themes. Some traders are looking for a retest of the 200 day moving average.
Sunday, October 07, 2018
Looking at the “New NAFTA” Trade Agreement / Stock-Markets / Global Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
Well, this is getting exciting!We just got an agreement this morning with Canada and Mexico to replace NAFTA, which has driven the markets higher.
I thought the Trump-induced trade war with China would have resolved by now as well. At the beginning of the summer I forecast that the president would talk big, beat on a couple of trade partners with some tariffs, then quickly reach a negotiated truce and claim victory.
It hasn’t turned out that way.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 05, 2018
Return of Stock Market Volatility: More Short term Weakness Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you would recall, I said in late-September that the stock market’s volatility would probably spike in October. Volatility was extremely compressed, which set the stage for an expansion in vol.
Yesterday, the stock market went down and volatility spiked a little.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 05, 2018
SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields & Yield Curve / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Gary_Tanashian
It has been a long while since the last Amigos update because frankly if the characters, images and shticks I invent to portray market status begin to wear on me sometimes I have to believe they may do the same to you. Consider that the 3 Amigos, SPX/Gold Ratio, Long-term Yields and the Yield Curve are slow movers that we usually view from monthly chart perspectives and well, sometimes you need to take a break and just let them do their thing over time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 05, 2018
Stock Market’s Breadth is Weak: Stocks Will Crash! Just Kidding / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
We’ve done 2 kinds of stock market studies recently.
- The U.S. stock market’s own price action.
- The U.S. stock market’s breadth.
Market studies related to the stock market’s own price action have mostly been bullish.
Market studies related to the stock market’s breadth have been mixed. Some are bullish, while others are very bearish.
So what gives? Why are some breadth studies so bearish? (e.g. Hindenburg Omen)
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 04, 2018
Divergence Between Stock Market Indexes: What’s next for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Small cap stocks have significantly underperformed large cap stocks recently.
Yesterday, I demonstrated that this divergence tells you that the bull market’s top is probably 1 year away.
However, this divergence typically means that the bull market’s rally still has some room left (e.g. approximately 6-12 months). As we all know, the stock market can go up a lot during the final 6-12 months of its bull market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 04, 2018
How Much Longer Can the Stock Market Hold Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Graham_Summers
More and more “bells are ringing” for this market rally.
The microcap index, called the Russell 2000, typically leads the overall market in risk on/ risk off moves. With that in mind, what does the below chart suggest?
Read full article... Read full article...