Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Just in time for what appears to be a potentially massive market price rotation, our researchers have put together this post to highlight what we believe will become a surprise price correction in the US Equities markets. Our team of researchers believes the correlation of our predictive modeling tools, predictive cycle tools, and other indicators are set up for what may become a massive 5~8% price rotation over the next 60 days.
We were expecting this rotation to start unfolding around mid-September (now) but at this time the technical are still bullish so we are not betting against the market just yet.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Lehman Brothers Financial Collapse - Ten Years Later / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Andy_Sutton
This will not be a long piece. It is not a memorial to Lehman Brothers nor is it an honorarium to the system that created Lehman, then crushed it along with a wide swath of American wealth and capital as well. This is not a tribute to government leaders such as Henry Paulson and others at the USTreasury who abused the trust afforded them by the American people and conducted one of the most brazen and heinous broad-daylight robberies in the history of the human race. We want you to remember what happened because, in the ten years since Lehman, not a thing has been done to prevent another episode and all the ingredients are present. The only thing missing is the trigger.
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
Financial Crisis Markets Reality Check Now in Progress / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Michael_Pento
The long-awaited dose of reality from the massive and unprecedented financialization of the global economy has finally begun.
Of course, those of us who understood from the start how healthy economies and markets naturally function, knew that a viable recovery from the fiscal and monetary excesses--which caused the great recession and financial crisis of 2008--was never underway. This is because central banks manipulated interest rates to zero percent and below and kept them at that level for a decade. Then, those same low rates engendered a humongous amount of new debt to be incurred, leading to the rebuilding of the current stock and real estate bubbles. And, it also created a tremendous and unprecedented bubble in the global fixed income market. This entire artificial construct, which was built upon bigger asset bubbles and greater debt loads, is now being tenuously held together by that very same government-engineered bond bubble.
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
The Stock Market’s Breadth: Another Warning Sign for 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
We are getting more and more signs that the stock market will face trouble in 2019. Some of these market studies center around breadth.
The stock market’s breadth has been deteriorating recently. Some of this is due to weakness in foreign (non-U.S.) stocks.
Long term breadth divergence is a normal part of rallies within bull markets. There’s nothing bearish about breadth divergences. HOWEVER, long term breadth divergences that have gone too far while accompanied by massive bull market rallies are a bearish sign for stocks.
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Wall Street Created Financial Crash Catastrophe Ten Years Later / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: James_Quinn
“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos, Madoff Whistleblower
The tenth anniversary of the Wall Street created financial catastrophe brought back some bittersweet memories this week. I wrote my first articles during the summer/fall of 2008 for Seeking Alpha. They included: Is The U.S Banking System Safe? (Aug 2008), The Great Consumer Crash of 2009 (Aug 2008), Looming Financial Catastrophe: A Real Inconvenient Truth (Aug 2008), Is Wachovia the Worst Run Bank in America (Sept 2008), The U.S. on the Precipice (Sept 2008), On Board the U.S.S. Titanic (Sept 2008), Our Coming Depression (Oct 2008), among others. I was pumping out 5,000 word articles every 2 or 3 days.
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Trade Wars Are Going To Crash This Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
This week, I am going to bring back the list of reasons that have been paraded before you over the last three-plus years as to why the stock market rally is over:
Brexit – NOPE
Frexit – NOPE
Grexit - NOPE
Italian referendum - NOPE
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Saudi TASI Stock Index Continues to Weaken Following Breakdown from Rising Wedge / Stock-Markets / Saudi Arabia
By: MarketsToday
Following a breakdown from a bearish rising wedge several weeks ago, the TASI (Saudi Arabia stock market) seen three consecutive weeks of falling prices. The index is now fast approaching the first key support zone to watch for a potential short-term bounce. Typically, at some point following a breakdown a bearish pattern a counter-trend rally will occur back up towards the breakdown zone (approx. 7,226) to some degree, before a continuation lower kicks in.
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Financial Markets Macro/Micro View: Waves and Cycles / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
By: Brad_Gudgeon
That which has been is what will be,That which is done is what will be done,
And there is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes 1:9 (NKJV)
Much has been written regarding repeating socio/political economic (SPE) cycles. Strauss and Howe wrote about the 20-22 year generational turns, which work in a 4 generation cycle called a Saeculum. Each Saeculum lasts about 80-88 years and includes a repeating pattern of Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall back to Winter again.
R.N. Elliot, A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter (over time) were able to map out an Elliott “Grand Super Cycle” 5 Wave pattern stretching from the founding of the USA into about 1999-2000. W.D. Gann was able to see repeating cycle patterns of 90, 82-84, 60, 45, 30, 20 and 10 years. There are many other cycles like the 4-year presidential cycle and Benner’s Cycle (http://bit.ly/2Qzx4OQ) which I will get to in time.
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Monday, September 17, 2018
Stock Market Bulls Prevail – for Now! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Another correction has started which could conceivably continue into mid-October.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, September 17, 2018
The China Threat - Global Crisis Hot Spots & Pressure Points / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A preface is required to explain that the US Federal Reserve is responsible for every grand financial crisis in the last 30 years, dating back to the Great Depression and its supposed spurious resolution to Black Monday of 1987. Little realized is that the ’87 crash was a direct result of the impact from outsourcing US industry, whose trend began in 1984 with Intel. The lost legitimate income had a grand effect on the inflows to the US Stock Market. Of course, the newly forming Reich Economic team preferred to describe it differently. The important outcome from the cleanup was the creation of multi-$trillion bank derivatives to serve as phony foundation for the entire Western banking system. Greenspan blessed it as good and firm, but now we know it was soft and weak. These derivatives are blowing up, which will require bailouts and a replacement in the Gold Standard. Instead, expect the derivatives to ramp up further with greater leverage up to the assured catastrophe. The fallout will be great.
Sunday, September 16, 2018
Emerging Markets to Follow and Those to Avoid / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets
By: Harry_Dent
Just saw a chart with the second quarter GDP results for the fastest growing countries in the world, and…Of course, emerging countries – largely Asia – dominated.
India topped at a whopping 8.2%, followed by waning China at 6.7%, Indonesia at 5.3%, and Turkey at 5.1%.
Other notable emerging countries were struggling, with Brazil at -1.2% and Argentina at -0.7%.
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Sunday, September 16, 2018
Stock Market Correction Ahead, But When? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Harry_Dent
The broader stock market via the S&P 500 finally broke to new highs in August, while they drifted insignificantly lower on Wednesday.And as Adam O’Dell recently commented, that typically means substantially higher highs ahead… like 13% plus.
What does this mean for my great crash forecast?
Well, my favored scenario right now, with the strong tax cuts Trump handed us, is that the great bubble peak comes in late 2019, not now.
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Sunday, September 16, 2018
Investing - Look at the Facts to Find the Truth / Stock-Markets / Investing 2018
By: Rodney_Johnson
The truth is…
I can’t stand sentences that start with that.
Typically, the author or speaker is discussing a controversial topic and trying to lay the groundwork for his or her position, casting everyone else as a liar or simpleton.
Paul Krugman of The New York Times comes to mind.
Saturday, September 15, 2018
Hindenburg Omen & Consumer Confidence: More Signs of Stock Market Trouble in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
Our Long Term Risk Model suggests that the U.S. economy & bull market are almost at the point at which “things can’t get much better”, but we’re not completely there yet.
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Friday, September 14, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis of Dow Jones Trucking Index (DJUSTK) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WavePatternTraders
This index has been strong recently and is one of the components of the Dow Transportation Average (DJT). I am closely watching the Dow Jones Trucking Index (DJUSTK) for clues to when the DJT will end its advance from the 2016 lows and reverse lower, as it seems that the recent fuel that is driving the Dow Transportation Average (DJT) higher is coming from the rail road and trucking stocks.Looking at DJUSTK I can make a solid case that it’s close to ending an impulse wave from the 2016 lows and current advance is in a 5th wave, although it may still push a little higher as some of the major stocks in the DJUSTK would look better if new highs were seen, stocks just as SAIA & XOP etc. Once we see new highs or some evidence of a reversal I am expecting the DJT to reverse lower.
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Thursday, September 13, 2018
Low Volatility Has Returned to the Stock Market. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
As you’ve probably noticed, the U.S. stock market’s volatility has been notably low over the past 2 months. It’s been 55 consecutive days without a >1% daily change!
*This is surprising because volatility is typically higher during August and September (more bearish seasonality).
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Thursday, September 13, 2018
Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here! John Lewis 99% Profits CRASH - Retail Sector Collapse / Stock-Markets / Retail Sector
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This week the mainstream press has been busy focusing on remembering the 'start' of the financial crisis of September 2008 "Lehman's Brother Collapse" that most of whom never saw coming. In act the financial crisis actually began much earlier than September 2008 with the first obvious signs of a credit crisis brewing being the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds during July 2007, but it would take the mainstream financial press another year before they started to connect the dots for the train wreck well in motion.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Stock Market Final Probe Higher ... Then the PANIC! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX closed above Short-term support at 2887.58, but SPX futures are challenging it this morning. Despite the cross-currents, there is room for yet another probe higher that may last until early afternoon (near 1:00 pm). That will be the 60th hour and 8.6 days from the top.
Looking at today’s economic calendar, the most intriguing item at 1:00 pm is the 10-Year T-Note Auction.
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Wednesday, September 12, 2018
US Economy We’re Close to “As Good as it Gets”, But Not Quite There / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index just surged to its highest level ever.
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Wednesday, September 12, 2018
This Will Be the Mother of All Minsky Moments / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2018
By: John_Mauldin
We have all had the fun as kids of going to the beach and playing in the sand. Remember taking your plastic bucket and making sandpiles? Slowly pouring the sand into ever bigger piles, until one side of the pile starts to collapse?In his very important book Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen, Mark Buchamane wrote about an experiment with sand that three physicists named Per Bak, Chao Tang, and Kurt Wiesenfeld conducted in 1987.
In their lab at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York, they started building sandpiles, piling up one grain of sand at a time. It’s a slow process, so they wrote a computer program to do it. Not as much fun but a whole lot faster.
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