Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, January 17, 2010
They Don't Ring A Bell At The Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
There are two kinds of bulls: 1) there are those bulls who are intent on squeezing every last percentage point from this rally and who believe they can find the exits when the music finally stops; and 2) then there are those bulls who continue to have high expectations that the current market environment will yield strong returns. The latter type of bulls are unlikely to realize strong gains without a significant pullback, and by significant I mean that the pullback should get investors to think that the market is rolling over to such a degree that the current cyclical highs will never be revisited. The former type of bulls are likely overestimating their ability to get to the exits or identify the top before the next trader. Either way, complacency reigns as they don't ring a bell at the top.
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Sunday, January 17, 2010
NDX, S&P 500 Trading, Exciting Options Expiry Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
What a week!
This was one of most exciting OpEx weeks that I remember for months – all sorts of crazy price actions on and off hours.
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Sunday, January 17, 2010
This Could Crush Stock Market Valuations / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Porter Stansberry writes: By now, most every DailyWealth reader knows the argument for higher interest rates.
Simply put, the U.S. government is facing a staggering amount of unfunded liabilities in 2010... around $3.5 trillion to be exact. As I described in my commentary on the Greenspan/Guidotti rule, the only way the government can make the interest payments on this debt (a good deal of which has been acquired in the past 12 months) is by printing money.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Stocks Plunge as Investors Hopes of Economic Recovery Might Have Got Ahead of Reality / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a somewhat shorter format as I do not have access to all my normal research resources while spending a few days with the gnomes in Geneva (also see my post “Blogging gone AWOL - to Switzerland“). Although the commentary is not as comprehensive as usual, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Marc Faber Flips from Bullish to Bearish on Stock Markets, Says SELL / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A few weeks ago Marc Faber was bullish on stock markets for 2010 but after participating in Barron's round-table discussion this week he has now turned bearish due to too much bullish sentiment, "Everybody was looking for further gains in stocks," he said.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
What Stock Market Crash History Tells Us To Expect For 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Many have wondered why the 10-year cycle peak in late September/early October didn’t produce a more meaningful correction in the broad market. Instead, the 10-year cycle peak produced only a marginal six percent pullback in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) instead of the much deeper one usually associated with the 10-year peak.A look at the past reveals why: the first full year following a crash low has never produced a sizable correction in the stock market. That historical truism certainly proved itself out in 2009. But what of the second year after a crash? What can we expect in the coming year based on market history? We’ll be taking up this question in the commentary that follows.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Where Jim Rogers is Investing His Money in 2010 / Stock-Markets / Investing 2010
Investment Guru Jim Rogers says the Indian stock market has run up a lot. "I won't buy shares at these levels." He has a similar view on emerging markets, except China.
Though he currently owns Chinese shares, he is a tad negative on the economy. "The Chinese economy needs to cool." He feels real estate in China is getting into a bubble zone.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Stocks Bear Market Rally Update / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Not much has changed of late, but I do see change on the horizon for 2010. From a Dow theory perspective, the bullish trend confirmation that occurred in 2009 remains intact. From a cyclical perspective, the higher degree low that began at the March low remains intact as well. Longer-term, my opinion has not changed in that based on my data, I continue to believe that in spite of the now 11 month rally this is nonetheless a counter-trend advance within the context of a much longer-term secular bear market.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Financial Markets Marching Towards Inflation and Interest Rate Hikes During 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
This weeks devastating Haiti earthquake illustrates that no matter how bad our financial and economic problems are they are nothing, a mere inconvenience when compared against how bad things truly could be as we continue to live protected, sheltered and privileged lives some distance from the difficult existence that nature has to offer.
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Stock Market Sentiment Needs Correcting... / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
This is what likely needs to happen. I have talked about the short-term risk for some days with the primary trend still being higher. Within those primary trends there comes a time when markets need to pull back lower. That needs to take place when sentiment gets too heavy on the bullish side of things. We now see sentiment readings very close to levels that have caused pullbacks in bull markets just about every time although timing it is virtually impossible. A 37.5% spread as of the week of January 4th and this isn't great news for the bulls although far from a death knell. 37.5% more bulls equals a top soon to come and its possible the top was put in yesterday given some weekly engulfing candles on our Nasdaq/NDX charts (non confirmed on the Dow/S&P 500/Wilshire 5000).
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Saturday, January 16, 2010
Stock Market Crash 2010, History Repeating? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Consumers aren’t that confident. - Confidence among U.S. consumers rose less than forecast in January, signaling a lack of hiring will restrain spending. The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 72.8 from 72.5 in December. The gauge averaged 66.3 last year after reaching a record 28-year low of 55.3 in November 2008. Unemployment, close to a 26-year high and projected to average 10 percent this year, remains a hurdle for the recovery. Gains in confidence and spending, which makes up 70 percent of the economy, will depend on sustained job growth that hasn’t happened since the recession started two years ago.
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Friday, January 15, 2010
The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
Free 13-page Report: Robert Prechter's firm Elliott Wave International has just released its annual "Most Important Report of 2010." Inside, Prechter delivers hard facts, eye-opening charts and straightforward commentary to help you take advantage of the opportunities – and avoid the dangerous pitfalls – that you will face in 2010. You'll get analysis and forecasts you can act on, and you'll learn what the government's unprecedented involvement in the financial markets will mean for your portfolio in 2010 and beyond. Learn more and download your free report now..Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 15, 2010
Stock Market Trend Technical Nuances / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
If reading the market was easy, we would all be rich. Arguably, there is more to investment decision making than computer algorithms. The human mind is extremely complex and human behaviour is extremely difficult (perhaps impossible?) to model. At the end of the day the economy is driven by the sum total of all businesses and investing is/should be about finding good companies which are well managed by professional managers who understand that they are employed by – and accountable to - shareholders.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 15, 2010
Where Have Investors Gone? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As Pete Seeger might have written it and the Kingston Trio might have sung it in the sixties, ‘Where have stock investors gone, long time passing? Gone to bond funds every one, long time ago.’
Will the last lines to that great folk song also become part of the picture? “When will they ever learn? When will they ever learn?”
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Friday, January 15, 2010
Vexing Stock Market Grinding Higher Defying Gravity / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Over the last few months, the behavior of the US stock markets has been rather vexing. Usually when they grow overbought, when greed and complacency wax extreme after a powerful rally, a healthy pullback soon rebalances sentiment. But instead they’ve ground higher lately, defying precedent and confounding students of the markets.
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Friday, January 15, 2010
U.S. Stock Market Indexes Cyclical Trend Forecasts 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
As we forge ahead into the year 2010, it is a good idea to step back and get an overall perspective on the US stock indexes, both from a cyclical point of view - as well as to get a look at the accompanying technical action.
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Friday, January 15, 2010
Alternative Explanation For S&P500 Rally Trim-Tabs Conspiracy Theory / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation
A recent post on Zero Hedge suggested that the “Non-Stop Rally Since March”, could have had a covert helping hand:
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Thursday, January 14, 2010
Key Price Levels for SPY, DIA, QQQQ, and IWM Stock Indices / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
It has been many months since I have looked at the key price levels on the ETF's that represent the major market indices. This used to be a regular feature back in the early days of this rally. I have recently renewed my interest in this methodology of determining significant turning points as these key price levels tend to represent important areas of support and resistance.
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Thursday, January 14, 2010
Doug Casey Says Stock Market Set to Crash / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
L: So, what's on your mind this week, Doug? I understand you've had a "guru moment"…
Doug: Well, it's nothing but a gut feeling, but I think the stock market is riding for a big fall this year.
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Thursday, January 14, 2010
The Power to Trigger a New Stock Market Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
An interesting question. Is there a group of investors that we can say may be responsible for triggering new upside rallies?
Take a look at today's chart and decide for yourself.
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