Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Will The Stocks Cyclical Bull Market Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: John_Hampson
Time to revisit and update this table.
What are historically predictive indicators and measures currently saying?
Green = yes. Yellow = maybe. Red = No.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Financial Macroeconomic Outlook, The Winds of Change / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Submissions
Anthony J. Krcmar submits: The report relies heavily on the conceptual framework of a U.S economy in a balance sheet recession. Our main thesis rests on the belief that until U.S households repair their balance sheets and generate real income growth, they are in no position to drive a self-sustaining economic recovery. Monetary policy (including quantitative easing (QE)) produces limited results in generating real economic growth--- since the demand for credit and the lack of qualified borrowers remain the issue not the supply of funds. Instead, expansive fiscal policy, through increased government budget deficits, exists as the primary lever to raise economic activity, transfer real financial assets to the private sector, and ease the pain of the deleveraging cycle.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Marc Faber Stock Market S&P Index Won’t Surpass 2011 1,370 High / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Bloomberg
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, appeared on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart” with Carol Massar and Matt Miller today.
Speaking from Sao Paolo, Brazil, Faber said that the S&P won’t surpass the 2011 high of 1,370 and that investors are “better off in equities than bonds.” Faber also said that keeping money in cash in 10-Years is a “disaster.”
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Get Out of the Way and Let Markets Work / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: The_Energy_Report
Thomson Reuters' Commodity and Energy Specialist Christopher Henwood believes bailouts of too-big-to-fail companies and countries addicted to entitlements have cast an ominous shadow over the global economy. Nevertheless, he finds room for optimism as global economic turmoil puts downward pressure on energy prices, which should give the economy some breathing room. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Chris shares a bit of his market knowledge and economic philosophy.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Dow:Gold Ratio & the Secular Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Toby_Connor
As I have been warning investors for many months, stocks have now entered stage III of the secular bear market. Gold on the other hand is now in the final parabolic phase of a 2 1/2 year C wave advance.
My best guess was that we would see a Dow:gold ratio of between 5-6 before this C wave ended. The ratio was at 5.71 as of today. For reasons explained in the nightly reports I think we may still have a little further to go on the downside for stocks and a little further upside in gold. So it's entirely possible that we could see a Dow gold ratio of 1:5 before the trends reverse.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2011
On the Brink Of Another Financial Crisis, Eurozone Crackup / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Mike_Whitney
"We believe that the market has now entered a major downtrend. It is a mistake to dismiss the slide we’ve seen to date as mindless and devoid of fundamentals as many strategists maintain. These are not just scary headlines—-they are scary fundamentals.... There will undoubtedly be some more sharp rallies that will be interpreted as new bull markets. In our view, however, the bear market has only begun, and has a long way to go." -- Comstock Partners, "Bear Market Rally Far From Over", Pragmatic Capitalism
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Another Stock Market "Lost Decade" Coming Up; Boomer Retirement Headwinds / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inquiring minds are digging into a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report that models equity prices and P/E ratios based on demographics. The outlook is not promising to say the least.
Interestingly, the report matches articles I wrote earlier this year based on cycles, not demographics.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Investing: Bad News, Good News, and What's Next / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Janet_Tavakoli
The manic depressive market wildly swings up and down on each new news story: The Fed is meeting at Jackson Hole on August 27 possibly to discuss QE3 (or not), and that news may pump up the stock market. But China's banks seem to be using Enron's accounting manual, Europe's banks need liquidity and are loaded with bad debt, and U.S. banks only temporarily TARPed over trouble.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Beginning of Classic Stock Market Break Down / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Brian_Bloom
Based on the chart below (courtesy Bigcharts.com) we have just witnessed the beginning of a classic breakdown.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Stock Market Poor Action Continues....Bears In Control / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
I spent part of the day in a hospital, and I'm tired, so tonight's report will be a little shorter than usual.
The market was very oversold on the short-term charts heading into the weekend and when those charts get repeatedly oversold, you get bounces for a small period time. You don't expect the world higher, but you know some type of reflex is on the way. We saw the futures blast up allowing for a higher open. The market tried a bit higher, but failed not too long after the market gapped up. The Dow was up just a little over two hundred points. In bear markets you avoid chasing gap ups. The market spent the rest of the day trying to hang in there, and after going red a few times, it did manage to hang on to slight profits.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Financial Markets Outook for Gold, Stocks, Volatility, Euro and Bonds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Willem_Weytjens
One month ago, the SP500 was trading at 1,345 points. Today it is trading at 1,128 points, or down over 16%.
One month ago, Gold was trading at $1,601. Today, it is trading at $1,891, or up over 18%.
We therefore look back at some historical developments in this report, in order to forecast future developments.
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Global Stocks Bear Market Is Upon Us / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Richard_Shaw
Or At Least Knocking On The Door... QVM Clients:
The attached letter provides charts showing evidence that we are in, or nearly in, a global bear market for stocks.
Important news events that will impact the coming week are:
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Dollar and Crude Oil Bearish Triangles Setting Up / Stock-Markets / Technical Analysis
By: Mike_Paulenoff
"Triangle, triangle on the wall, what are thee telling us about market direction overall?" Neither the lack of European financial integration nor the imminent fall of Gadhafi have jogged the Euro and Brent crude oil futures out of their recent sideways ranges. Perhaps we should view the post August 8 pattern in the e-mini S&P 500 as a triangle pattern too? And, if so, what will that mean?
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Monday, August 22, 2011
Gold and Crude Oil Trading Thoughts, What's Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The past few weeks have been fast moving with fearful investors clearly in control. As we all know fear is the most powerful force in the financial market and when the hedge funds and the masses get spooked they all dart in one direction like a school of fish. Watching the charts and volume levels it’s clear that money was/is flowing out of stocks and into precious metals as the risk off safe plays. This was explained in last week’s report on how the GLD etf can be used as a fear/sentiment indicator (read here).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 22, 2011
Stock Market Dip Buyers Beware: Odds Favor Lower Lows in Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Whether you rely on fundamentals, technicals, or a combination of both, investment analysis centers around looking at probabilistic future outcomes based on historic outcomes that occurred under similar circumstances. Given the weight of the fundamental and technical evidence we have in hand and in the context of history, the odds have shifted from favoring higher highs in stocks and risk assets to favoring lower lows. Until conditions improve, we will continue to err on the side of caution and treat the current market climate as unfavorable for intermediate to longer-term investing. We have minimal exposure to global stocks. We have positions in gold (GLD), silver (SLV), bonds (TLT), and cash.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Stock Market Long Term Looks Bleak – Not The Short Term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into about 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The bull market which started on March 2009 at 667 appears to have ended at 1370. The first intermediate decline of the new bear market may be close to being over.
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Sunday, August 21, 2011
Is High-Frequency Trading Causing Higher Stock Market Volatility? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Investment_U
Justin Dove writes: Where were you on August 9, 2011?
Alright, it wasn’t some landmark event like Black Monday. Heck, it wasn’t even the 2010 Flash Crash. But to Art Cashin, it was one of the wildest days for the stock markets in 50-plus years.
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Sunday, August 21, 2011
How Far Down Can Stock Markets Go ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andrew_McKillop
The crash of Oct. 19, 1987, AKA “Black Monday” witnessed a 20-percent-plus fall of index numbers, and therefore nominal stock market value in 1 day: since early August 2011 we have had falls of around 15 percent in 15 days.
Retrospective mythmaking on the 1987 crash noted that Iran had fired missiles over the Persian Gulf, causing some nervous moments, rather like Hamas firing missiles on Israel, today. The decisive factor, for some mythmakers treating the 1987 event, was that 24 years ago the US wanted a lower-valued dollar, rather like today, prompting foreign investors to start to dump stocks fearing exchange rate-related losses.
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Sunday, August 21, 2011
Stocks Bear Market Begins / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Donald_W_Dony
World markets have broken important support levels over the past three weeks. Global equity indexes have now fallen into a new bear market.
Fears about the spiraling European debt crises and a stalling US economy is largely the cause for the decline (Chart 1). Most indexes have already dropped 10% to 14% in August as investors run to safe havens. An additional 10% to 12% is expected by year end.
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Sunday, August 21, 2011
Scarlett O'Hara's Risk-Free Rate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
By: Fred_Sheehan
The death of the long-established risk-to-reward asset categories was the subject of "It's Over." From lowest to highest: cash, bonds, and stocks, are the pecking order of institutional investment policies. Pension plans and endowments that have wandered into warehouses and gas-pipeline management often retain the outline as a mental diagram. The assets with the highest assumed risk (using statistical measurements) are expected to produce the highest return. The genesis for this construction is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), a deeply flawed academic theory.