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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 04, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The stock market is overbought on multitude of measures and ripe for significant correction even if many people are expecting it to happen. Though I hear many people stating that because so many are expecting a correction therefore it's sods law that it's not going to happen so don't risk missing out on another 10% bull ruin by waiting for a correction!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 04, 2021

What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? / Stock-Markets / Trading Systems

By: Submissions

Trading is very interesting and rewarding when you have proper knowledge, nerves of steel, and fast decision-making skills. All of this starts with knowing the basics of trading.

Today in this article, let us find out more about the golden cross trading pattern. 

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 03, 2021

Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery.  Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns are peaking.  What’s next?

Why Traders Need To Consider Future Risks

This recent article caught my attention as I caught up on today’s morning events (Source: Yahoo! Finance). It highlights the incredible inflationary trends occurring because of disrupted supply channels related to the original COVID-19 disruption. Could you imaging what would happen if a new virus strain prompted further lockdowns and labor/supply disruptions for another 12+ months – or longer?

The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing that has taken place over the last 4+ years by global central banks may be acting as an anchor for growth and starting to weigh down global markets. Easy money policies lead individuals and corporations to borrow more and more capital expecting growing returns from sales. What happens when we start to see a mild economic slowdown take place, possibly complicated by inflationary price trends and consumers that pull away from making big purchases?

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 03, 2021

This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Stephen_McBride

Editor’s note: Today, we’re sharing an important adaptation from Chief Analyst Stephen McBride’s recent issue of Disruption Investor

One that’s more important than any one specific stock recommendation…

This is about a simple mindset shift that can make or break your retirement, so you’ll want to read closely.

***

“Most American investors now expect the stock market to crash.”

That Business Insider headline flashed across my screen recently.

Over half of American investors think stocks are headed for a crash, according to a survey by insurance giant Allianz.

New data from The American Association of Individual Investors paints a similarly gloomy picture. The number of stock market bulls is near its lowest level in a decade.

Judging by how investors feel, you’d think the market is struggling…

But did you know the S&P 500 hit new record highs last week?
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

When caution is thrown to the wind, we begin to recognize that the market may be moving into a dangerous euphoric state from which a long-term bear market can begin. And, while it may be easier to bury your head in the sand, I strongly urge you to take to heart what I am about to say, as it will likely have ripple effects for generations to come.

Recently, I read that the board of directors of the nation’s largest pension fund voted to use borrowed money and alternative assets to meet its investment-return target. What makes this even more striking is that this same pension fund lowered their investment-return target just a few months ago.

“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.

Without changes, Calpers said its current asset mix would produce 20-year returns of 6.2%, short of both the 7% target the fund started 2021 with and the 6.8% target implemented over the summer.

Board members voted 7 to 4 in favor of borrowing and investing an amount equivalent to 5% of the fund’s value, or about $25 billion, as part of an effort to hit the 6.8% target, which they voted not to change. The trustees also voted to increase riskier alternative investments, raising private-equity holdings to 13% from 8% and adding a 5% allocation to private debt.”

Source: WSJ

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The emergence of the new Omicron coronavirus strain is roiling financial and precious metals markets. Investors fear government health officials will order new lockdowns to try to contain it.

Never mind that previous lockdowns don’t appear to have worked. Some of the most draconian were imposed by Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Her state now records the nation's highest seven-day rate of infections.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Omicron Covid Wave 4 Impact on Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

Day That Changed the World?

S&P 500 and pretty much everything apart from Treasuries and safe haven plays down precipitously, with panic hitting oil the hardest. The post Thanksgiving session turned out not so light volume one, but the fear wasn‘t sending every risk-on asset cratering by a comparable amount. What we have seen, is an overreaction to uncertainty (again, we‘re hearing contagion and fatality rate speculations – this time coupled with question mark over vaccine efficiency for this alleged variant), and the real question is the real world effect of this announcement, also as seen in the authorities‘ reactions.

Lockdowns or semi-equivalent curbs to economic activity are clearly feared, and the focus remains on the demand side for now, but supply would inevitably suffer as well. Do you believe the Fed would sit idly as the economic data deteriorate? Only if they don‘t extend a helping hand, we are looking at a sharp selloff. Given the political realities, that‘s unlikely to happen – the inflation fighting effect of this fear-based contraction would be balanced out before it gets into a self-reinforcing loop. With the fresh stimulus checks lining up the pocket books, Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit etc., we‘re almost imperceptibly moving closer to some form of universal basic income. Again, unless the governments go the hard lockdown route over scary medical prognostications (doesn‘t seem to be the case now), such initiatives would cushion financial markets‘ selloffs.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Economic and Market Impacts of Omicron Strain Covid 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Coronavirus 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

Before this week’s COVID mutant headlines served well to take more enthusiasm out of a frothy market that we have been noting to be at longer-term ‘structural’ (as opposed to varying short-term) sentiment risk, we took a look at COVID-19 from a different perspective.

NFTRH 682 discussed the contrary deflationary or dis-inflationary view that could re-set the Fed from its current hawkish pretense. #682 also presented the case for continued inflation. Both macro conditions were covered and will be covered until things shake out one way, the other, or both, or neither (read: Goldilocks) along with strategic stock highlights as they relate to the macro environment and, assuming a stable market over the next several weeks, some seasonal buy opportunities due to tax loss selling.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Stock Market Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data to support my conclusions.

Even though I’m not dismissing some external event, like a sudden US Fed move or some foreign market event, historically, the US markets enter a reasonably strong Christmas/Santa rally phase at this time every year. The increasing volatility usually starts to build in September/October – reaching a peak in October/November every year. December’s trends are traditionally much more muted and consolidated.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 26, 2021

Is the S&P 500 Topping or Just Consolidating? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

The S&P 500 continues to fluctuate along the 4,700 level. So is this a topping pattern or just a flat correction before another leg up?

The S&P 500 index extended its Monday’s decline yesterday, as it fell to the daily low of 4,652.66. But it closed 0.17% higher following an intraday rebound. The market rebounded to the 4,700 level again. The broad stock market keeps trading within an over two-week-long consolidation. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. However, it may also be a topping pattern before some more meaningful downward reversal.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 25, 2021

A Couple of Things to Think About Before Buying Shares / Stock-Markets / Investing 2021

By: Submissions

Buying shares is a form of investment that pays off in the long run. You can acquire shares at one price and sell them at a higher price. This is known as capital gains. From a historical standpoint, shares have provided some of the most resilient after-tax investment returns. You gain the money, pay income tax on it, and afterward deposit it into some kind of account, where it can earn interest. Alternatively, shares can provide income in the form of dividends. They’re usually paid out twice a year. Some companies pay dividends on an ad-hoc basis to demonstrate it has amassed sufficient cash reserves to make dividend payments.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Stock Market Begins it's Year End Seasonal Santa Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If one looks at the general stock market indices such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq then the correction is done and dusted, However look under the hood and one sees huge volatility in the tech sector, huge price drops of stocks crashing by over 10% in a single day and for some by as much as 1/3rd (Peloton). So where many tech stocks are concerned a significant correction HAS TRANSPIRED despite the indices largely giving a head and shoulders shrug by continuing to revert to new all time highs.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Stock Market Betting on Hawkish Fed / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 reversed from fresh ATHs as spiking yields sent tech packing. Value didn‘t soar, but held up considerably better – still, stock bulls are getting on the defensive. Markets have interpreted the Powell nomination as a hawkish choice. I‘ve written the prior Monday:

(…) the Fed is still printing a huge amount of money on a monthly basis, and it remains questionable how far in tapering plans execution they would actually get – I see the risks to the real economy coupled with persistently high inflation as rising since the 2Q 2022 (if not since Mar already, but most pronounced in 2H 2022.

Inflation hasn‘t moved to the Fed‘s sights, and yesterday‘s rection in yields and precious metals is a bit too harsh. While rates are on a rising path as I‘ve written yesterday, precious metals overreacted. True, the bullish argument for the dollar stepped to the fore as yields differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world got more positive, and at the same time, various yield spreads keep compressing. That‘s a reflection of less favorable incoming economic data. Just as much as Friday‘s reaction was about corona economic impact projections, yesterday‘s one was about monetary policy anticipation.

Inflation expectations though barely budged – the decline doesn‘t count as trend reversal. CPI isn‘t done rising, and the more forward looking incoming data (e.g. producer prices) would confirm there is more to come. All in all, it looks like precious metals (and to a smaller degree commodities), are giving Powell benefit of the doubt, which I view to be leading to disappointment over the coming months. Should Powell heed the markets‘ will, the real economy would weaken dramatically, forcing him to make a sharp dovish turn – and he would, faster than he flipped since getting challenged in Dec 2018.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Stock Market Elliott Wave Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Every high is the fifth of the fifth of the fifth! until the market fails to follow through and on we march with the next high then the next high, which is why I take Elliott Wave Theory with a mountain of salt.

My Elliott Wave pattern of Feb 2009 has proven remarkably accurate (as did the pattern before that), see being skeptical works! It's when people think they have found the holy grail when things start to go wrong!

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

Your once-a-year All-Access Financial Markets Analysis Pass / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2021

By: EWI

Hi Reader,

As you watch the markets move, you want in. Every trader and investor thinks this way.

But how do you know WHEN is the best time to jump in? Jump out? Stay flat?

Today, millions of new traders think that trading means "buy and hold." They are wrong. Trading means punching in both directions -- and our friends at Elliott Wave International can show you how, right now.

Once every year, EWI offers their full library of high-quality, online, on-demand e-courses at a heavy discount. They call it the All-Access Pass.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Can We Get To 5500SPX In 2022? But 4440SPX Comes First / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: Avi_Gilburt

Before you begin reading this article, I want to warn you that it is quite lengthy and also recaps some of our analysis over the past 20 months. So, if this will offend you or you don't want to hear that, feel free to stop reading right now.

I have been writing for Seeking Alpha now for over a decade. And, during that time, I certainly have had my share of critics. I have been told that I do not understand the markets I track. I have been called names like "insane," "dimwit," "charlatan," and "snake oil salesman." And, I have been told that my "squiggly line" analysis cannot foretell anything, is "absurd," "chart magic," and "highly unmeaningful."

And, these are just some of the comments I received over the last 20 months alone, as you can see for yourself:

Are You As Foolish As Most Market Participants?

So, it has certainly been an interesting past 20 months, in addition to the last decade.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

A Month-to-month breakdown of how Much Money Individuals are Spending on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment

By: EWI

It's been noted before in these pages that ...

... Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined

That was an April CNBC headline.

That remains an astounding fact to contemplate and a testimony to a widespread cavalier sentiment toward risk. The basic attitude is that stocks almost always go up.

Well, nearly a half year since that CNBC headline published, the public's interest in stocks has remained intense.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

S&P 500: Rallying Tech Stocks vs. Plummeting Oil Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Paul_Rejczak

The S&P 500 index nearly topped its record high on Friday, but it closed lower following an intraday decline. Is this a topping pattern?

For in-depth technical analysis of various stocks and a recap of today's Stock Trading Alert we encourage you to watch today's video.

The S&P 500 index lost 0.14% on Friday, Nov. 19, as it extended its short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. The broad stock market went sideways despite record-breaking rallies in large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT and NVDA. It still looks like a short-term topping pattern, as the S&P 500 index keeps bouncing from the Nov. 5 record high of 4,718.50.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 22, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The Dow in percentage terms is well on it's way to retreating from it's most overbought state in decades, what usually tends to happen is that the Dow percent touches or more usually crosses below the red bar and for the bull market to resume would need to cross back above the red bar.How far would the Dow need to fall to fulfill this requirement in the allotted Sept / Oct correction time window? Probably to around 28k. However the alternative is that the Dow stays put around 34k to 35k for the next 6 months, which does not seem probable, so this indicator is suggesting a swift sharp drop to possibly as low as 28k within the next few weeks!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 20, 2021

US Dollar vs Yields vs Stock Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The first thesis is that when the dollar and yields are rising then stocks should be falling because it is seen as being deflationary, risk off. The actual correlation is basically 50/50, a coin flip. So a rising dollar and yields is a con flip for stock market weakness.

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