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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Stock Market Margin Debt WARNING! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Margin debt tends to peak and fall long before the stock market turns lower as basically speculators are starting to get cold feet and thus cut back on their bets. Either that or forced closures of their losing shorts due to failure to meet margin calls, probably more of the former than the latter.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

Will the Senate Confirm a Marxist to Oversee the U.S. Currency System? / Stock-Markets / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets pulled back a bit this week as the U.S. dollar strengthened versus foreign currencies.

In other markets, the rising dollar index put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline futures this week. Consumers who have been experiencing pain at the pump should get a bit of a reprieve in the days ahead.

But it could be short lived. The same government policies that helped drive gas prices higher this year are still in place: Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus coupled with disincentives for domestic energy production.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 19, 2021

When Even Stock Market Bears Act Bullishly (What It May Mean) / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: EWI

"Some indicators are making records"

It's difficult for most investors to take an independent stand from the crowd.

For example, it may be wise to "buy when there's blood in the streets," as Baron Rothschild famously said, but for many investors, that's easier said than done.

Likewise, when a financial uptrend has persisted, it's difficult for many investors to act in a contrary way to the pervasive optimism.

Consider this chart and commentary from the November Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides coverage of major U.S. financial markets:

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Kondratieff Full-Season Stock Market Sector Rotation / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018:

  • Bonds were trading lower
  • Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows
  • Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates started to rise a bit
  • and the Stock market rallied to new all-time highs

All of these are components of a late Spring or early Summer type of Kondratieff Season.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 18, 2021

What Stock Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into a new phase of market trending where the Consumer became hyper-active in the global economy while inflationary trends were somewhat muted.

COVID Shifts Global Market Cycles Into Faster & Broader Trends

Now that inflation is starting to rise, we may transition away from consumer and speculative market cycles. Over the next 6 to 12+ months, the markets may shift into a late-stage Bullish rally phase. My opinion is the COVID-19 virus, and economic event process has resulted in a speedy, possibly 24 to 36 month, extreme cycle phase.

Take a quick look at the Stock Market & Economic Performance cycle example below. We can see that Financials/Transports, Technology, and Capital Goods usually lead a market rally after a bottom in cycle trends. This trend is generally followed by a rally in Basic Industry, Precious Metals, and Energy before we near a peak level in the stock market.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Sentiment Speaks: This Stock Market Makes Absolutely No Sense / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

People still argue with me about the weight one should give to market sentiment when investing or trading. Yet, when the earnings were announced for AMC this past week, it certainly should make you scratch your head.

AMC stock was just below $8 before Covid hit. When we look at a little closer at today’s company data relative to the pre-Covid era, we realize that AMC has more shares outstanding, more debt, and higher losses post-Covid. Yet, today, the stock is over $40. In the recent earnings report, management even told us that they are not yet at the pre-Covid levels when it comes to their fundamentals. Yet, the stock is 5 times higher.

Many of you would shrug this off to “the madness of crowds.” But, what it highlights is that the only thing that can explain this is market sentiment. So, while many would shrug this stock off as simply being “over-valued,” have you considered what that really means?

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

This is the fourth and final part of my extensive analysis that maps a stock markets trend forecast into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season

Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!

Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus
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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Stock Market Minor Cycle Correcting / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  The long-term trend continues unimpeded but could be challenged in early 2022. 

SPX Intermediate trend:  An intermediate correction has ended and given way to another intermediate uptrend which could continue into early 2022.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's why PE ratio's matter as the following chart shows the return 10 years forward from the starting average PE i.e if the stock market is trading on an average PE of 27 than can basically be expected to go nowhere for the next 10 years. Whilst the lower the PE the higher the expected return (on average), where the safe zone for investing is at a starting PE of between 10 and 20.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 15, 2021

Stock Market Inflation Consequences - S&P Dividend Yield vs CPI / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's another indicator to pile on top of a mountain of indicators that I have been covering over the past few months all flashing RED . The S&P real terms dividend yield is now LESS than at the dot com bubble peak! In fact one would need to go back to the depths of the early 1980s' inflationary depression to reach such poor returns.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Focus on Stock Market Real Gains / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 declined, and not enough buyers arrived in my view. Still, we‘re likely to see a brief pause in selling, and that‘s giving the bulls a chance. Credit markets were a bit too beaten down by the troubled 30-year Treasury auction and Evergrande moving into the spotlight somewhat again. VIX managed another upswing, and doesn‘t point to the S&P 500 having gotten to an excessively bearish positioning just yet.

I think some treading the water before stocks make up their mind, is most likely next. The downswing doesn‘t appear to be totally over, but we have arguably seen the greater part of it already. Tech isn‘t yet stabilized, but the increasing volume spells a pause in selling. I‘m still looking for clues to the bond markets.

And it‘s clear that not even higher rates can sink the precious metals run – neither the late day rush to the dollar had that power. Miners continue behaving, and their daily black candle doesn‘t scare me – the realization of inflation not having peaked, and being as stubborn as I had been pounding the table since eternity, is working its magic:

(…) inflation expectations are moving higher – the more you shorten the maturity, the higher they go, let alone RINF, their key ETF. Markets will be proven very wrong about the transitory inflation complacency – inflation rates aren‘t going to decline if you just leave them alone. And taper coupled with rate hikes hesitancy won‘t do the trick either.

S&P 500 is still primed to go higher – the only question is the shape of the current consolidation. Liquidity is still ample, the banking sector is strong, and the Russell 2000 isn‘t really retreating.

Precious metals are consolidating – it‘s almost a pre-CPI ritual, but under the surface, the pressure to go higher keeps building. I‘m looking for a strong Dec in gold and silver, with unyielding oil and copper gradually waking up. Cryptos aren‘t taking prisoners either.

Crude oil is well bid in the $78 till $80 zone, and would overcome $85 – we aren‘t looking at a reversal, but at temporary upside rejection. Likewise copper would kick in with vengeance, and the shallow crypto consolidations are barely worth mentioning at all.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, November 14, 2021

US Economy & Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Want to know what's driving the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

Here's the Dow divided by the annual US budget deficit. Usually the lower the reading the better the prospects for the stock market because the stocks are being fuelled by rampant money printing deficit spending that is being monetized by he central bank on an epic scale.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, November 13, 2021

Stock Market AI mega-trend Stocks Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in this video - the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess a year ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderate during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain as the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!

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Stock-Markets

Friday, November 12, 2021

How Emerging Markets ETF Followed a Classic Elliott Wave Pattern / Stock-Markets / Emerging Markets

By: EWI

Here's what happened after the completion of a "bullish triangle"

A Charles Schwab survey shows that 15% of today's retail investors started investing in 2020.

And, regarding 2021, an August 2 CNBC headline said:

New investors are jumping into the market

So, when you combine the influx from this year and last, that adds up to a lot of new investors.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - China Crisis, Stagflation, Stocks Bubble, Reverse Repo... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 3 of my extensive analysis that maps out the stock markets trend into Mid 2022 - Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022

Part 1 - Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season

Part 2 - Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!

Contents:

  • Stock Market Forecast 2021 Review
  • Stock Market AI mega-trend Big Picture
  • US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending
  • US Economy Has Been in an Economic Depression Since 2008
  • Inflation and the Crazy Crypto Markets
  • Inflation Consequences for the Stock Market
  • FED Balance Sheet
  • Weakening Stock Market Breadth
  • Why Most Stocks May Go Nowhere for the Next 10 Years!
  • FANG Stocks
  • Margin Debt
  • Dow Short-term Trend Analysis
  • Dow Annual Percent Change
  • Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
  • ELLIOTT WAVES Analysis
  • Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields
  • SEASONAL ANALYSIS
  • Short-term Seasonal Trend
  • US Presidential Cycle 
  • Best Time of Year to Invest in Stocks
  • 2021 - 2022 Seasonal Investing Pattern
  • Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast
  • Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept 2021 to May 2022 Conclusion
  • Investing fundamentals
  • IBM Continuing to Revolutionise Computing
  • AI Stocks Portfolio Current State
  • My Late October Stocks Buying Plan
  • HIGH RISK STOCKS - Invest and Forget!
  • Afghanistan The Next Chinese Province, Australia Living on Borrowed Time
  • CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!
  • Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment
  • Aukus Ruckus
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Stock Market Great Profitable Runs / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 pause goes on, and bonds support more of it to come. Tech keeps thus far the high ground gained, but value is showing signs of very short-term weakness – and yields haven‘t retreated yesterday really. The correct view of the stock market action is one of microrotations unfolding in a weakening environment – one increasingly fraught with downside risks.

To be clear, I‘m not looking for a sizable correction, but a very modest one both in time and price. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher over time still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps in the medium term.

The dollar though isn‘t putting much pressure on stock, commodity or precious metals prices at the moment – such were my yesterday‘s words:

(…) when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.

For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.

And that‘s what precious metals would be increasingly sniffing out. Commodities are joining in the post-taper celebrations, and my prior Tuesday‘s market assessments are coming to fruition one by one. Oil is swinging higher and hasn‘t topped, copper is coming back to life, and cryptos aren‘t in a waiting mood either.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Sentiment Speaks: How Wrong You Are Mr. Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021

By: Avi_Gilburt

So, I decided to read yet another article calling for a market crash. Needless to say, the body of the article offered nothing of true substance upon which I cared to comment, and I was saddened by the several minutes of time I wish I could have gotten back. That is, until I read the comments section, which provided me fodder to write this article.

“News flash, that bull market ended last year. We're in the beginning stages of a new one.”

“That crash is still going on, the market just hasn't caught up with it yet”

“Article #512 on SA in 2021 about the upcoming crash. Eventually, they will all be right. I do nothing different ever. I believe in my investments and I ride out crashes and corrections. Have cash available to buy which are wealth building opportunities. I always feel sorry for the poor panic sellers who miss out on so many gains because they are out of the market. It is only a loss if you sell. And, the market will come back and make new highs 100% of the time. This is an historical fact.”

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist - The China Syndrome / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

China's property market is collapsing but the only data we have at present is anecdotal from the property developer canaries in the coal mine which have been under extreme distress for several months, with now dozens defaulting on their debts triggering fire sales of housing stock to raise revenues as they desperately fight to stay alive in the face of impending debt and interest payments, playing their part in the brewing Financial Crisis 2.0.

Financial Crisis 2.0 Checklist

  • China housing market in distress - CHECK
  • China's economy slowing - CHECK
  • US Economy slowing - CHECK
  • Brewing STAGFLATION - Slowing economy coupled with rising prices - CHECK
  • Black Swan Event - Crisis at the ports - CHECK
  • Economic Models busted - Workers refusing to return to work not factored into Economic models - CHECK
  • REVERSE REPO MARKET - Banks desperate to swap deposit liabilities for T-bills collateral so as to lower capital requirements which has drained the capital markets of over $1 trillion - CHECK
  • STOCK MARKET BUBBLE - Valuations have lost touch with reality - CHECK
  • FED TAPERING into a Weakening Economy - Huge Risk of a valuation reset - CHECK
  • IMPEMDING DOOM! - The relentless march of the Climate Change Mega-trend where all that the worlds leaders did at COP26 was Blah Blah Blah - CHECK!
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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Stock Market Long and Short-term Seasonal Trends / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.

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