Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Is The Brexit Debacle Going To Crash The Stock Market ... Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
We are often directed to think that the market reacts in the same manner as Newtonian physics. We believe that a news event which accompanies a market move was certainly the “cause” of that market move. But, how often have we seen markets react in the exact opposite manner in which the substance of the news event suggests?
While science has moved away from Newtonian physics, stock market analysts have not.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Deflationary Assets are Outperforming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
During the current bull market, deflationary assets (industrials, technology, financials, communication, consumer discretionary and real estate) have greatly outperformed inflationary assets (commodities) for most of these past 10 years.
Martin Pring's Deflation/Inflation Index (Chart 1) illustrates that deflationary assets have largely outperformed inflationary assets from late 2011 to the beginning of 2016 and again from mid-2018 to the present.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Our Incredible Price Anomaly Setup in the Nasdaq Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
research team has been alerting our followers to a potentially deep price retracement setting up in the NQ and other US stock market majors. Although the recent price activity has pushed to newer recent highs this week, as you will see in the chart below, our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system is suggesting that a “price anomaly” has set up.
These types of price anomalies are indicative of when price moves in an extended way outside of or away from the ADL predicted price levels. On the chart below, of NQ (NASDAQ), you’ll see the current setup with the predicted price anomaly highlighted as a RED SQUARE. This NQ ADL price pattern consists of 13 unique previous ADL instances and suggests there is a greater than 65% likelihood the prices will fall towards the 6700 level in the NQ over the next few days.
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Thursday, March 14, 2019
S&P 500's New Medium-Term High, but Will Stock Market Uptrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Stocks extended their uptrend on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October yesterday. But will the rally continue despite some short-term technical overbought conditions?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.6-0.7% on Wednesday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% yesterday. The market is now close to the previous medium-term local highs following an intraday rally to the new medium-term high of 2,821.24. The broad stock market's gauge is now just 4.4% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.7% on Wednesday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,815-2,820, marked by the medium-term local highs. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,795-2,800, marked by the yesterday's daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the Tuesday's daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
The Exponential Stocks Bull Market Explained - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Were now into the 11th year of this ageing stocks bull market for which my underlying message for its duration has been the same, one of "the greater the deviation from the bull market peak then the greater the buying opportunity presented".
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Stock Investors Beware The Signs Of Recession / Deflation / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
As I now provide analysis to over 5000 subscribers between my services on Elliottwavetrader, The Market Pinball Wizard, and FATrader, I am the beneficiary of much feedback from various segments of the financial markets. In fact, since we have over 500 money manager clients, I see a lot of what the predominant thinking is on “the street.”
Of late, I have been pointing to the potential for the dollar to rise to the region of 99-100DXY and TLT to take us up towards the 131-136 region. And, it seems many on “the street” are on the wrong side of the boat on this one. In fact, when I wrote a recent article on the TLT potentially rallying quite strongly in the coming months, I experienced quite a bit of pushback in the comment section to that article.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Is the Stock Market Still in a Bear Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market has gone nowhere over the past 2 weeks. This is normal because most of the time, the stock indices simply aren’t as volatile as other markets like commodities. The big news today is that “bond king” Jeff Gundlach says that the stock market is still in a bear market, and that this is just a bear market rally.
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Stock Market Trend Analysis 2019 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my 6th analysis in a series of 10 that concludes in a 6 month trend forecast for the stock market.
December 2018 saw panic hit the stock market on the failure of the Santa rally to materialse, as those who had bet on such a widely anticipated rally (including myself) were forced to sell out which sent the Dow plunging below support of 23,400 to a low of 21,700. Which is a reminder that we are dealing with the FUTURE, which is UNWRITTEN. So there is always a risk that the market is not going to resolve in the anticipated direction no matter how confident one is at the time that it will.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019
The $TSX.CA Composite Index Cycles & Bullish Trend / Stock-Markets / Canada
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Firstly, the index has rallied with other world indices trending higher into the June 2008 highs. It then corrected the bullish cycle as did most other world indices. The index ended that larger degree correction in March 2009. It is at this point where the index corrected the whole all time up bullish cycle. Thus the March 2009 lows is from where this cycle and swing analysis will begin. It appears to be a new beginning.
Secondly, from the 2009 lows the index shows a 5 swing higher sequence that favors further upside. Price has reached and exceeded the 61.8 – 76.4 Fibonacci extension of the 2009 to 2011 bullish cycle. That happened in September 2014 under the red swing count. This area was also seen in the preferred blue count the 61.8-76.4 Fibonacci extension was reached and slightly exceeded in January 2018.
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Tuesday, March 12, 2019
This Stock Market Pop Could Fizzle Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US stock market opened today with mixed opening prices. The crash of the Ethiopian Boeing passenger jet prompted selling in the Blue Chips, particularly in Boeing (BA). As of right now, the US stock markets have recovered quite well and have pushed higher.
We believe this upward rotation may be short-lived and want to highlight the two Engulfing Bearish candlestick patterns that have formed recently. The first, near the October 2018 highs, prompted a very deep price correction that ended on December 24, 2018. The more recent, completed just on March 8, 2019, is setting up resistance just above recent highs ($175.95) and is still a very valid sell signal for the QQQ. Unless the price is able to breach the $175.95 level over the next few weeks, this Engulfing Bearish candlestick pattern is technically the key pattern driving future expectations for the price.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Phase 1 of Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Initial rally has come to an end.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Monday, March 11, 2019
Long Awaited Stock Market Pullback has Finally Arrived / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
It was a tough week for the U.S. stock market, with the S&P falling 5 days in a row. The S&P is finally starting to make a somewhat sizable pullback, although this pullback happened later than we expected. Most pullbacks are start at the 50% retracement level – this one started at the 78.6% level, which proves that the short term is always extremely hard to predict.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
US Presidential Cycle and the Stock Market - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Presidential cycle pattern has proved REMARKABLY ACCURATE in terms of flagging future stock market price action as an except from my last in depth look at stocks illustrates:
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis Trend Forercast / Stock-Markets / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
ELLIOTT WAVES
Where elliott wave is concerned I like to keep things very simple which is why I don't adhere to the many tenants of elliott wave theory as for me, EW is just a another technical tool. Here's what my previous elliott wave interpretation which correctly expected a rally to Dow 27k into October 2018 that was virtually spot on.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Chinese Economic Data Shakes the Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades. There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019. Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%. Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.
The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating. It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?” Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months. We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up. We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India. It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
Is the Stock Market Trend From December 2018 Over? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: WavePatternTraders
The recent price action we have seen this past week, potentially has the makings of a reversal in progress. Some world stock markets are showing an outside weekly bar reversal pattern, which is a strong pattern to support further weakness.Looking at a number of highly correlated markets, they are showing a very similar pattern. I favor an impulse wave (5 wave decline) is in progress, an up-down sequence is still needed to develop a 5 wave decline from their respective swing highs. If we can count 5 waves to end an impulse wave from last weeks high, a bounce thereafter in 3 waves would support a move lower and offer a selling opportunity.
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Monday, March 11, 2019
The Stock Market Has Called the Fed’s Bluff, What’s Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
The Fed is truly in a panic.
Let’s take a big picture perspective of the last year or so.
Throughout 2018, the Fed claimed it could normalize policy (raise rates and shrink its balance sheet). Heck, the Fed didn’t just claim this, it was supremely confident of it.
Indeed, the Fed was still pushing this narrative as late as August, when most of the Emerging Market space and many economically sensitive asset classes had already collapsed 30%.
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Sunday, March 10, 2019
SPX Big US Stocks Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Zeal_LLC
The widely-held mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets recently finished reporting their Q4’18 financial results. Because the tenor of stock markets changed radically last quarter, this latest earnings season is more important than usual. An extreme monster bull market suddenly rolled over into a severe near-bear correction in Q4. How major corporations fared offers insights into whether a young bear is upon us.
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders. They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.
While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years. Most big companies logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s. Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.
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Saturday, March 09, 2019
Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market 2019 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curve Inversion
An inverted yield curve is basically when the yield on 2 year US government bond exceeds the 10 year US bond yield as worried investors opt to disinvest from risky assets in favour of safer longer term government bonds thus driving down long bond yields below that of nearer term bonds. And the closer the yield curve gets towards towards an inversion the greater the likelihood for a future recession. So far the yield curve inversion has successfully forecast the last 3 economic downturns in the United States. Though the YCI has proved less reliable elsewhere, especially for Australia.
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