Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 25, 2019
Friday's Stock Market Sell-Off - New Downtrend or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Paul_Rejczak
Friday's trading session was bearish, as stocks retraced their Thursday's advance and continued lower ahead of the weekend. The S&P 500 index was the highest since the early October on Thursday. So was the Friday's sell-off a medium-term downward reversal or still just a correction?
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 1.8-2.5% on Friday, as investors' sentiment worsened following some global economic data releases. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its October-December downward correction of 20.2% recently. The broad stock market's gauge traded just around 3% below September the 21st record high of 2,940.91. But then it got close to the 2,800 mark again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.5% on Friday.
The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,820, marked by the recent support level. The next resistance level is at 2,850-2,860, marked by the early October local lows. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,800, marked by the recent resistance level and the daily gap up of 2,798.32-2,799.78. The support level is also at 2,785, marked by the daily gap up of 2,784.00-2,786.73.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Potentially Powerful Stock Market Headwinds / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
For the past four Sundays, my technical work has been focused on the extent of the post-Christmas recovery rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) in relation to the Sep-Dec 2018 correction from the Sep 21 all-time high at 2940.91 to the Dec 26 low at 2346.58.
Since mid-Feb, when the SPX climbed and sustained above the 62% Fibonacci retracement zone at 2713.70 (+1% target overshoot at 2740.84), I have been refocused on the next higher 76.4% Fib resistance level at 2803.50 (+1% target overshoot at 2832). Purely from a Fibonacci perspective, the 2803.50 to 2832 zone on the SPX represented the next natural resistance zone from where the recovery rally might exhaust itself.
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Monday, March 25, 2019
Stock Market Short-term Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Need more time and data to assess the market’s intermediate action.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, March 24, 2019
US Bonds Call “BS” on the Stock Market Ramp-A-Thon / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Jerome Powell burst the Everything Bubble… and now he’s desperately trying to put it back together again.
Having generated the single largest mis-allocation of capital in history from 2008-2016 by manipulating bond yields to extraordinary lows, the Fed, lead by new Fed Chair Jerome Powell decided it’d be wise to embark on the single most aggressive tightening schedule in history.
I started warning that this would blow up in spectacular fashion as early as July-August 2018. The issue was not the Fed tightening, but the pace at which it was tightening. There was no real reason for the Fed to raise rates and engage in QT at the pace it did. Only a fool would think that doing this wasn’t going to cause some serious damage to a financial system that was more leveraged than any other time in history.
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Sunday, March 24, 2019
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
Similarities Between Stock Market Today and Previous Bull Market Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market rally continues, with the S&P 500 now within 3% of its all-time highs. Meanwhile, various leading economic indicators are showing similarities to previous bull market tops.
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
Stock Market DOW Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
SEASONAL ANALYSIS
The basic stock market seasonal pattern is after a weak Jan / Feb, strong March / April, a peak in May, down into June, a Strong July / August peaking in Sept for a wobble into October that sets the scene for a strong rally into the end of the year.
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Stock Market Russell 2000 Leads The Way For Technical Analysts / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians. Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.
Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU. Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25. Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up. This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher.
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Your Future Stock Returns Might Unpleasantly Surprise You / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
By: John_Mauldin
Every investor knows that “past performance is not indicative of future results.” Yet many embrace century-long averages as a reasonable guess for future returns.
Back in the late 1990s, we were told that the long-term average return (~10%) was a reasonable long-term assumption. Instead, the S&P 500 Index has only gained about 3% annually since 1999—just over half the historical average.
This forced Baby Boomers to work longer and harder to retire, as well as save more of their income.
Thursday, March 21, 2019
The Stock Market Chart No One of CNBC Wants You to See / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
In the last two months every single Fed Hawk has given up on normalization.
Every. Single. One.
Throughout 2018 Fed Chair Powell maintained that he was focused EXCLUSIVELY on normalizing Fed policy by:
1) Reducing its Balance Sheet to pre-crisis levels of ~$1 trillion, a whopping $3.5 trillion lower than the $4.5 trillion it was when Powell took the helm at the Fed.
2) Raising interest rates to the neutral rate (the rate of GDP growth/ inflation).
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Dow Jones Stock Market Topping Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research team believes a moderately mild price rotation will unfold over the next 30 to 60 days where the US Stock Market will rotate downward. Particularly, the $INDU (Dow Jones Industrials) should move lower towards the $23,000 to 24,000 before finding support based on the longer term weekly chart. Keep in mind we are not saying the price is going to fall. We are stating price could correct in a big way if recent support levels are broken. If so, then 23,000-24,000 levels should be reviewed.
We have been warning about a specific price pattern that we believe is currently in the process of setting up in the US Stock Market. This pattern is a “Falling Wedge” pattern. We’ve seen a few of these over the past 5+ years in downward retracing price swings. They typically act as a means for the price to explore a “momentum base” setup before breaking out to the upside. You can read our previous research here.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Will the Stock Market Crash Like 1937? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
As the stock market rallies, it never ceases to amaze me how popular crash-analogues can be. The 1937 analogue has been quite popular recently, constantly shared and reshared on social media and trading blogs.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Stock Market Ready for Take-Off? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Is the S&P 500 (SPX) on the verge of a sustained upside breakout as it pushes through multiple prior failed rally peaks just above 2800? This week should provide some answers.
Actually, a sustained climb above 2832 (on a closing basis) also will answer the question we have been asking in these weekly articles for the past four weeks: Will the powerful advance from the Dec 26 low at 2346.58 be stymied in the 2775 to 2832 resistance zone?
This zone is the area that measures 76.4% of the entire prior Sep-Dec correction -- what we're calling the "Fibonacci Recovery Price Resistance Zone" -- and in the last 20 trading days the SPX has probed but failed to hurdle the upper boundary (2832) of this zone no less than five times!
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Stock Market VIX Volaility Analysis / Stock-Markets / Volatility
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's my quick look at the VIX
VIX
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
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By: EWI
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
US Stock Markets Price Anomaly Setup Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
This research post highlights what we believe to be a unique price anomaly setup in many of the US major markets this week. Our research
suggests that April 21, or near this date, will be an important price inflection point base level for the US stock markets. We believe a unique price base will begin to form near this date and a bigger price move in May/June 2019 will unfold.
Our Advanced Dynamic Learning (ADL) price modeling system is suggesting the rotation in the US stock market may stay somewhat muted before this move on April 21 begins. The ADL predictive modeling system is one of our proprietary price modeling utilities that our research uses to identify key levels of future support and resistance as well as to watch for “price anomalies” that setup. Price anomalies are where the current price level of any symbol is greatly diverted from the ADL predictive price level. When this happens, the price will usually “revert” back to near the ADL levels at some point in the immediate future – sometimes setting up a great trading opportunity.
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
The Coming Stocks Bear Market Will Be Especially Painful for the Boomers / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: John_Mauldin
My back-of-the-napkin math says retirement accounts are at least 50% invested in equity index funds.
Some of you are now asking, “What’s the problem? All those index funds have come back. Everybody is back to where they started.”
Not so fast, Jack.
Monday, March 18, 2019
Is The Stock Market Finally Topping? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
Many investors maintain beliefs about the stock market which often have them looking the wrong way at the market turns. In fact, I can no longer count how many comments I see about how the Fed is what directs our stock market action, and it just makes me scratch my head.
The main argument by Fed watchers is that the Fed’s easy money drives the stock market. Yet, the Fed's balance sheet peaked at $4.52 trillion in January of 2015 and is down over 12% from that peak. Yet, the stock market has added over 40% since the Fed’s balance sheet peaked. Remember how often we were told by the Fed watchers that a shrinking Fed balance sheet would lead to a stock market crash? Well, it certainly did, but not in the direction most expected.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Split Stock Market Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Is the long-term trend resuming? Is this a B-wave? Too early to tell!
Intermediate trend – Warning from leading indexes. Top of B-wave possible.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, March 18, 2019
Chinese Data Has Delayed Effect on Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
In the previous two segments of this research post PART I, PART II, we’ve hypothesized that the recent Chinese economic data and the resulting global shift to re-evaluate risk factors within China/Asia are prompting global traders/investors to seek protective alternative investment sources. Our primary concern is that a credit/debt economic contraction event may be on the cusp of unfolding over the next 12~24 months in China/Asia. It appears that all of the fundamental components are in place and, unless China is able to skillfully navigate through this credit contraction event, further economic fallout may begin to affect other global markets.